No one said anything was wrong with post 3798. What happened was JT saw it and came in to make his usual point that vaxxed adults still need to be careful about spreading covid. You may not have understood that, but that’s what he was doing. And then you commenced arguing with him.
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Can you quote the specific ludicrous comparison being made, because JT has already clearly said
Cherry picking a sentence out of a 400 word post to “refute” it isn’t helpful when you haven’t bothered to actually read the post first and leads to blowups and derails.
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It’s literally his thesis statement in his post, followed with long winded examples of him saying it’s similar. The person cherry picking a sentence, from a later post even, is you.
In that same post you quote, JT explicitly says there’s similarities:
They are, in fact, not similar whatsoever. Covid spreads through kids like wildfire through dry kindling. It does not come close to that kind of spread through the vaccinated.
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They don’t need to take the same precautions as the unvaccinated they have lower risk of transmission, getting sick and bad outcomes
Evidence is mixed on this one, likely viral load is lower
Your opinion
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Vaccinated people spread covid at orders of magnitude less than unvaccinated children. Calling them similar is ludicrous.
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Cite?
Unvaccinated children are tested at orders of magnitude more than vaxxed adults. I know my kid/s have had 150x more tests over the last 12 months than say a US doc working with covid positives. Yes, amazingly all negative tests, so far - no masks in school either so little mitigation -strange given they’re all (your words) little germ factories
He’s not saying there are similarities between spread in vaccinated adults and unvaccinated children, he’s talking about how the general public treats the risk in both cases and how they’re viewed as similar levels of risk despite being wildly different. microbet even already explained this in the post above mine.
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Here’s how the paper you posted summarizes the prior work:
A more comprehensive understanding of the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection and their possible role in transmission is needed to help define strategies aimed at addressing the COVID-19 pandemic while preserving families’ well-being.2 To date, most evidence comes from widespread community testing. In Iceland, children younger than 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive test result than older individuals who received targeted testing; in the population screening, no child younger than 10 years of age had a positive test result.5 Data from Italy and Japan tend to confirm the low rates of infection among children.6,7 Zhu and colleagues8 recently showed that, in household transmission clusters of SARS-CoV-2, the index case is unlikely to be a child. Ismail and colleagues9 estimated the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks among staff members and students in educational settings during the summer half-term (June and July 2020) in England. The staff members had a higher incidence of infection than did the students, and most of the cases of infection associated with the outbreaks were staff members. Li and colleagues10 recently reported that the proportion of children among all patients with confirmed COVID-19 estimated for 29 countries varied from 0.3% to 13.8%. In Australia, SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low (1.2%) in educational settings during the first epidemic wave.11
Overall, much of the recent data has suggested that children do not play a significant role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.10 However, the available evidence for quantifying the extent to which children may contribute to overall transmission is limited. The possible role that children play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the rate of infection among children may be underestimated because children are more often asymptomatic.12 Samples collected by nasopharyngeal swab may increase the percentage of false-negative test results. This sampling technique is not comfortable, particularly for less-compliant patients, such as young children.13
As to this study, I’m not sure how confidently one can interpret it. Their baseline model shows that there was a ton of transmission among kids, but that includes an assumption that all kids were contacts of all other kids, which is obviously not true. If you instead assume that kids are only contacts with their classmates (their Scenario 4), their model shows that kids are less likely to transmit the disease and most infections happen outside of school. Also note that there appear to have been a bunch of people at this school who weren’t in the study, but who appear suspiciously infrequently in their imputed transmissions.
This also bears some thinking on:
Children were more often asymptomatic compared with adults (6 [46.2%; 95% CI, 19.1%-73.3%] vs 4 of 31 [12.9%; 95% CI, 1.3%-24.5%]; P = .04). Data on symptom duration are shown in eTable 3 in the Supplement. The median length of symptoms was 8.50 days (IQR, 1-20 days) when both symptomatic and asymptomatic participants were included. The median duration of symptoms was shorter for children (0.00 days [IQR, 0.00-1.00 days]) than for adults (15.00 days [IQR, 7.00-22.00 days]).
It seems pretty plausible that they just dredged up a bunch of asymptomatic cases and then claimed they were all connected without a real good basis for doing so.
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He just made a long post about removing measures too early with additional judgments that only make sense if he believes that the risk has been massively understated. Yes, he isn’t saying that the risk in unvaccinated isn’t exactly the same. His comparison is still ludicrous because the risk in the unvaccinated is so much higher.
Nope. It was a silly idea even before delta.
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OK, but you’re clearly trying to change the subject here.
The subject is COVID.
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Most people in the UK got AZ. With 68% of people fully vaccinated cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all rising steadily and alarmingly again:
That doesn’t follow at all from what I’ve said.
Elizabeth Bik took 99:1 odds your pony would finish last.
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I’m giving JT benefit of the doubt here.
I think the point is that we shouldn’t be cavalier about vax to vax transmission as some were about kid transfer???!
Unvaxxed to unvaxxed adult >
Kid to kid but kid to kid still a lot >>
Unvaxxed to vaxxed >>>
Vaxxed to vaxxed
But I think by the time we get to vaxxed to vaxxed the transmission is low enough that if we didn’t have a large unvaxxed pool for vaxxed to unvaxxed we would see an R<1 strictly amongs the vaxxed (previous study was bullshit and overlooked that there plenty of unvaxxed within that population).
So strictly speaking
Kid to kid is massively more than vaxxed to vaxxed and is significant as for as the community spread.
I assume real vaxxed to vaxxed is practically occurring vaxxed-unvaxxed-vaxxed (or at least dominates the math). Probably pretty minor in terms of community spread but worth taking precautions considering the unvaxxed number of morons.
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JT it is confusing sometimes as to your point and then you get defensive and dig in. My initial interpretation of what you write is pretty similar to CNs, I’ve just been trying to stay out of the fray.
Just an observation. Take it as you will.
CN- suggest you ask for clarification in a neutral tone. Understand the frustration itt.
DanSpartan- clock is ticking before you expose yourself as a hypocrite by flying off the handle.
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But I think by the time we get to vaxxed to vaxxed the transmission is low enough that if we didn’t have a large unvaxxed pool for vaxxed to unvaxxed we would see an R<1 strictly amongs the vaxxed (previous study was bullshit and overlooked that there plenty of unvaxxed within that population).
I hope you are correct about this, but Im definitely in the IDK maybe bucket from everything Ive read. Especially in practice where vaccinated vs. unvaccinated is likely to be more of a continuum than a light switch for people who have taken shots.
Really hoping for a nasal vaccine at some point.
Thread is really popping off today. Someone must have discovered a cure.
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Agreed, but also agree Delta is different. Mitigation that worked last year arent going to work as well this year and we probably need more mitigation in schools, at the very least until kids are vaccinated. Obviously not saying you disagree.
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