https://twitter.com/datadrivenmd/status/1430292474874843140?s=21
In other news, bullfighters are approximately 185 times more likely to be gored in the testicles than non-bullfighters.
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Seems like the plan is just to let all the kids get it.
Hence the point about the finite nature of the spike protein. It canât mutate endlessly. The subset of mutations that confer advantage are small. The vaccinated population will largely stay ahead of this thing (but not 100% of the time).
The same thing will happen in the naturally immune only population, just at a much higher body count.
Rarely does a sexual species with a complex immune system succumb to the point of collapse because of the array of adaptive defenses and overall diversity of the species. (some plants that are all essentially clones is another story)
Will those combinations of mutations eventually occur? Not certain. By the time they all accumulate will the vaccinated immune baseline be different and make it even harder on mutants? Very likely yes.
All we are arguing about likelihood here. Your scenario is possible. No scenario is a certainty either way. If we stay on top of this thing with vaccines we will have an order of magnitude or two less morbidity and death. But certainly I like our odds.
Iâm giving a personal educational and experiential based opinion. Readers here can give that whatever weight they wish.
Based on direct personal experience between bacteriophage and bacteria (with much simpler defenses than an immune system), the bacteria won out in the long run. Carnage to be sure due to clone natural of asexual reproduction of the bacteria. But still we were able to develop hardier and hardier bacteria that eventually had enough defenses to limit the phage attacks.
Of course the non vaxxing idiots and world politics/economics that will maintain a large unvaxxed population outside the first world will make this last much longer than it could and cost many more lives than it should. Shame on the idiots. Shame on us for not getting the shots out to the world effectively.
The best way to limit the effect of mutations is to limit the number of new infections. It has to replicate to mutate.
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SAGE concluded a vaccine escaping variant was close to certain in the long-term, but that it not being fixable with a vaccine or having the real doomsday where those already vaccinated couldnât be protected against a new variant was, while not impossible, not very likely.
One of the Pfizer/Moderna leaders also said they expect an immune evading variant to occur, but expect they can address it within months.
If it happens we shouldnât be caught off guard as much as in March 2020, but Iâll be very happy if we get out of this without a few steps back at some point. That 2025 estimate seems maybe a tick conservative but certainly reasonable.
Maybe they can come up with a vaccine that will work within âmonthsâ. But given the regulatory hurdles, it seems like there is no way kids are going to get it for over a year. Although, I suppose 15 months is technically âmonthsâ.
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I have no way to confirm this. Somebody better at the interwebs?
https://twitter.com/autumndamnit/status/1430325771940290565?s=21
Seems odd that a reporter doesnât have a checkmark and doesnât link to an article. Then again, they donât have newspapers in Arkansas, so who knows.
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Yeah I donât know enough about the process to know if the same delays occur the second time
Lol they changed the headline on me. I had it open in a tab. Just looked at it and it said cases had leveled off, only 2 new ones. I clicked away, then realized what I saw and clicked back, and now itâs gone. Headline says âAfter signs of leveling, COVID-19 hospitalizations in L.A. County tick back upâ
I was bait and switched.
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This is awesome and worth the effort because I, and Iâm sure a lot of people found it very informative
Unfortunately, the main person I was debating with turned out to be a complete nut box. Thinks this is some socialism experiment to track people! Says weâll all be needing QR cards before long. It got to a point where Iâm like I just canât continue this conversation and felt bad you put so much thoughtful work into this. Again, it wasnât for nothing. I and others got a lot from it. I just had no idea this guy was so loopy. Still donât know how to deal with him except just try not dealing with him because heâs hopeless
Thanks again!
Thatâs fine, it was like 99% to be hopeless. People who are just like âidk what to think about the vaccine, something seems off about itâ can be reached, but trying to convince people who are already sending you YooToobs and Facebook posts and stuff is hopeless, theyâre gone.
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1430416887591047173
Decided to do a little digging andâholy shitâcheck out this crosstab.
As Florida deals with a surge in COVID-19 cases and a battle intensifies over an executive order issued by Governor Ron DeSantis to ban mask mandates in schools, a majority of people in Florida say 60 - 36 percent that they support requiring students, teachers, and staff to wear masks in schools, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of Florida adults released today. There are sharp political divides on this question as Democrats support school mask requirements 98 - 1 percent, independents support them 63 - 32 percent, and Republicans oppose them 72 - 24 percent.
And also:
Among those who say they do not plan to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, a majority (68 - 20 percent) say they think that receiving a COVID-19 vaccine would be more damaging to their health than becoming infected with COVID-19. Twelve percent did not offer an opinion.
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The vaccination hubs run by NSW health are great. I am a bit biased because the software they use was created by the company I work for but on top of that the people that run the sites are doing a great job and make it really smooth and fast. No surprise that the vaccination rate is increasing very rapidly now that vaccine supply issues are going away.
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Counterfeiters appear to be doing brisk business.
Last week, customs officials in Memphis, Tennessee and Anchorage, Alaska seized 6,000 false vaccination cards in separate shipments from China destined for recipients across the US.
They were printed with the CDC logo and closely resembled the genuine cards given to US citizens when they get vaccinated. However, when officials looked closer they noticed spelling mistakes and poor printing quality.
two counterpoints,
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this was much, much more on the fringe before trump, particularly when it comes to vaccines. Antivaxxers were almost exclusively hippies before the pandemic.
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before the emergency use authorization, tons of deplorables were pretty vocally pro-vaccine. Trump invented the thing that would save western civilization, the libs would be ultimately triggered and would all have to admit that daddy is the greatest president of all time. Where this changed, Iâm not sure, but the bungled initial rollout probably had a lot to do with it.
When Republicans run the state the law becomes one of those âone weird trickâ things to get them to their stated preferences
Like before COVID, the answer to âCan a teacher remove a student who displaying signs of an infectious disease that could spread to others in the class?â was obviously yes
https://twitter.com/meganmmenchaca/status/1430309748025475074
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