Seems like a massive reach. One precise point mutation would not be exceptionally likely, but four? Nope.
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Theyāre not saying a variant with precisely those four mutations will arise, theyāre using it as a proof-of-concept that a sufficiently mutated RBD is capable of evading existing vaccines. Of the four mutations they used, K417N is just Delta-plus, and Delta variants with N501Y or E484K also exist in the wild. They donāt mention whether their last choice, N439K, exists in Delta in the wild. But the point is that these mutations probably have selective advantage by themselves, and wild-type Delta increasingly exists in an environment where selection pressure to evade existing vaccines is mounting.
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But no one actually cares about a proof-of-concept. Everyone already knows that itās possible for covid to mutate to the point where vaccines donāt work. This study demonstrates how difficult it would be for that to happen and is overall reassuring, not concerning.
It would also be likely be easy to adapt with the new mRNA tech.
The editorialization of that paper is really poor. Their title of āpoised to acquireā is completely and wholly unsupported by their work.
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Looks like we are into 2022 before 5-11 vaccines. Hopefully at least done for the ā22-ā23 school year. Donāt see how most of the them donāt get natural immunity.
https://mobile.twitter.com/FPizarro_DC/status/1430121983472291847
If an individual mutation does not confer an advantage (null phenotype) it usually does not proliferate unless it it somehow occurs in conjunction with a separate mutation that does confer the advantage.
To have four happen in the same virus (literally the same strand of RNA) would be an exceptionally rare event.
Certainly the vaccine makers need to be right on top of vaccine evading sequences and prepared to generate sequences.
The spike protein is limited in size and the number of advantageous mutations is small and finite. Long term the vaccines will win (lol compliance) AND also a good chance that mutant specific boosters can ameliorate the worst morbidity.
Still, there is still real chance that virus may gain an edge for a few months at some point (not just due to stupidity but by changing faster then we can keep up for some interval).
So I think the appropriate stance is vigilance. A doomsday scenario is unlikely.
Iām still pulling 2025 out of my hiney as to how long this will take before life goes back to ānormalā and even then we shouldnāt throw away masks and may need annual Covid shots.
As far as doomsday, Iām more worried about antibiotic resistance in bacteria making a super plague or similar. Horizontal transfer of whole genes and even complexes of genes means these can arise fully formed.
I donāt know anything about science but this just seems like a massive fuck up. 200 million doses with zero negative effects and we canāt vaccinate 11 year olds for another 4-8 months? Fucking ridiculous.
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Apparently they have to dose it different for under 12, but Iām pretty surprised they are gonna let it drag into 2022. The models and papers Iāve seen posted estimate like 20 percent (good mitigation) to 80 percent plus (lol florida) of kids infected before the vaccine is available if this authorization lingers into next year and schools open in person. I almost wonder if there is a sort of de facto infect the kids to build natural immunity strategy.
Aw fuck off
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Right. These are all, to my understanding, mutations that have arisen multiple times independently though, suggesting they do confer advantage by themselves.
Yeah I mean this is what Iām concerned about. Iām not concerned that the virus will just keep evading vaccines forever. Iām concerned that weāre not fast enough to keep up and this will drag on for years more.
I know we like to ignore good news around here, but 2 new hospitalizations in a day in LA county sure seems like some combo of vaccine + immunity from sickness is working, right?
I canāt say that itās wrong for sure, but thereās a different set of norms for approval in pediatrics. Lots of meds are off label in peds.
That link seemed to be very poorly worded. I believe they meant there was an increase over 2 from the previous dayās numbers. They are plateauing, not in the ditch.
Yeah its a huge bummer here too.
I get that you need to set the bar higher for shots for children, still seems like the wait has been crazy long. Would help if we got more of an explanation as to why it takes this much time.
Yeah apparently it ticked back up today.
From the full article:
Pfizer could submit its data to the Food and Drug Administration for review by the end of September, Collins said. But he added, āIāve got to be honest, I donāt see the approval for kids ā 5 to 11 ā coming much before the end of 2021.ā
While full FDA approval is likely several months away, Pfizerās vaccine could be cleared for emergency use earlier, possibly in October, after the submission of its trial data.
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Just say āpartial herd immunityā three times into a bathroom mirror and @CaffeineNeeded will appear and slit your throat with a scalpel.
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This is a lot more positive.
Nick Cage Duh dot jpg
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