Daily reminder that bulk ISO alcohol is currently readily available online and that is a resource that will never be wasted.
Estimated CFR based on recent cases seems fairly steady at just under 2%, regardless of what you assume the right lag is (that is, the average time between positive test and reported date of death).
When you combine a fairly steady CFR with increasing cases, it’s not surprising that deaths are likely going to pick up. When I apply estimated recent CFR to current 7da new cases, I get forecast deaths:
Each point on this graph is the number of average daily deaths that you’d estimate on that day for 21 days in the future. So the way you’d interpret this is that as of today, looking forward 21 days, it looks like we’re going to be at a 7-day average daily death count of 900 or so by election day. This is more than 20% higher than where we are right now.
Not great, Bob
holidays are going to be fucking brutal
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That’s about what I’m seeing as well. I think the longer lag vs the initial spikes has as much to do with demographics as treatment. The youngs are the initial case rises then the olds then the deaths. Seemed to get straight into the olds in the spring.
Everyone had it in the spring. I’ve never seen anything like it. It didn’t matter what the complaint was, trauma, stroke, abdominal pain, vomiting, heart attack, they all had fucking covid.
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Is that a CDC graph?
Here, have one with some labels
US was testing more in Aug - who know’s where we’re at now
So you’re saying you were in on the “HospItals calling everything COVID so they could get reimbursed more” conspiracy.
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Saw this and thought you were writing about the Czech Republic. Whew.
Ontario going backwards. At least the government is willing to close things up again instead of telling people not to let it dominate them.
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Yeah this seemed inevitable. I don’t think there’s really a way out either without vaccination. Fatigue and denial are super high right now notwithstanding cases peaking. It’s going to get ugly.
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Really needed to shut things down weeks ago when it was obvious that Covid numbers would rise again.
Hope it’s not too late.
Man people came in stabbed, we’d get them to CT, and they’d have covid all over their lungs. It was absurd
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We have a shot to break 60,000 today. Things seem to be ramping up fast.
I remember when there were 50 cases/day in the CR and I was concerned about schools being able to safely reopen… in June.
Think I’d kill somebody to get back to that at least fpr a little while. Otherwise a lockdown is inevitable. A very long, mentally draining one.
Yeah it’s wild how little coverage it seems to be getting. Our peak is 75K, and we’ll probably challenge that next week if not sooner with no signs of slowing down.
Here in PA we’re about 3/4 of the way to our peak in daily cases and we’re just opening more stuff up. They’re signing off on stadiums with a cap around 7,500, blaming the rises on colleges, and touting PPE supplies and ventilator capacity.
I don’t expect any shutdowns anywhere between now and Election Day, barring hospital overruns.
I suspect we’ll shut it down quickly in many states after that, plateau around Thanksgiving and then run it up higher than ever around the holidays.
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Worldometers. I was just (trying to) show the zoomed in part showing a recent up turn.
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I’ll stick to beer for now.
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Let’s make fun of him for not realizing he was in one of the COVID only hospitals in NYC until he tells us what was actually halpening.
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How bad does it have to be to justify not going home for Christmas?
Frankly, covid is hitting the CR just as hard (perhaps harder) than most of the US. Flying does seem like a death trap. Government is giving each teacher ten N95 masks here. Guess I’ll save one for flying home.
Like if I had family here or saw them more than once a year, staying home is the easy choice. But I don’t.
don’t think i’ll be flying from Vegas to DC for xmas