There was talk of modified [something but definitely not herd because that word seems to set people off] immunity because 50% or w/e had completely removed themselves from the pool of potential infected people - which is still largely true. This talk was, at least by me, always qualified with back to school, college kids coming home and winter coming. And now possibly immunity wearing off even if people got reasonably sick - which would be very bad if it becomes common.
Many articles were posted to back up this effect as well - with scientists talking about how we had modified our behavior and that modifies how the virus will spread from traditional models. None of the scientists said we’re at herd immunity or it’s going to go away. They just said the spread is going to be weird because of these major behavior modifications - and we’re in completely new territory.
“COVID-19 is the first disease in modern times where the whole world has changed their behavior and disease spread has been reduced,” Britton noted. That made old models and numbers obsolete. Social distancing and other reactive measures changed the R0 value, and they will continue to do so. The virus has certain immutable properties, but there is nothing immutable about how many infections it causes in the real world.
What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.
Essentially, at present, New York City—where I live—might be said to be at a version of herd immunity, or at least safe equilibrium. Our case counts are very low. They have been low for weeks. Our antibody counts mean that a not-insignificant number of people are effectively removed from the chain of transmission. Many more can be effectively excluded because they’re staying isolated and distanced, wearing masks, and being hygienically vigilant. If we keep living just as we are, another big wave of disease seems unlikely.
Feel free to read this or just be snarky about lol herd immunity every time there’s a new spike.
I think my characterization of hopeful was quite fair, and even reflected in your post. I didn’t bring up the topic, and the anger directed at me is just dumb tbh.
There was never talk about herd immunity - like zomg instead of 70% we only need to get to 20% with no other changes and life as normal - which is how this strawman is always presented.
The talk was about this situation where a big chunk of people are mostly isolating and modifying their behavior. The term modified herd immunity may have been used - but it means just that. It doesn’t mean virus over and it was never characterized as that. It means virus spread weird and thwarted from traditional models which assume no behavior changes.
You and Dan just want to continually ignore that and go “lol herd immunity” any time there’s a new spike - when in no way did anyone ever claim there wouldn’t be new spikes. Carry on.
The whole original way it came up was me responding to a poster saying “the sky’s the limit” for the second wave. I was never saying there wouldn’t be a second wave - just that this new behavior would likely not let it blow blows up in a “sky’s the limit” scenario.
I guess we’ll see if your NYC-has-some-kind-of-immunity theory holds up. Over the last month, positivity rate and cases per 100k have doubled. Can’t sustain many more doublings without things turning very bad, imo.
It’s not a theory. We know NYC has some level of immunity because a ton of people got it.
Unless they can get it again this quickly - which would be very bad. But we should know that if it happens as tons of stories will come out. IE - not just a few anecdotal ones where one of the positives was a test and the person has no symptoms.
Because it wan’t hopeful talk of herd immunity. It was talk of this new world where massively modified behavior alters the normal spread that models would predict. You guys just choose to key on the words herd and immunity and create a strawman out of it that I was implying the virus was done.
It’s refusing to even try to grasp any nuance and mischaracterizing my argument - like when it snows and right-wingers go “lol global warming”.
Modified behavior affecting spread isn’t herd immunity. I don’t think you really understand the terms your using, and that’s leading to some confusion.
Great so I think we’ve identified the problem. Even though I said “modified herd immunity or whatever you want to call it” - you just see the words herd immunity and run with that. I’ll use behavior-modified spread from now on.
You can also take it up with the epidemiologists in the Atlantic piece I’ve referenced many many times in this tiresome debate:
What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.
This seems to be especially relevant given the huge variance involved in these superspreader events that we now understand are a major driver of spread. If behavior knocks down the superspreader events - it will make a big dent in the spread.
But they use herd immunity correctly, and you repeatedly don’t. I understand exactly what they’re saying. They say that you can drop the R0 below 1 and achieve herd immunity if we do that by doing x,y,z. That’s true by definition. You keep claiming that we are actually at a point where a combination of prior spread and modified behavior has actually done this. I’ve yet to see any compelling evidence that this is true.
I’m saying it will blunt the impact of future waves. I’ve never once claimed anywhere was done with the virus.
And always with caveats about school, college, winter and now potential loss of immunity. So maybe it does nothing. But the comment about sky’s the limit was back in June.
I did feel like back in June there just wasn’t a big pool waiting to get C19 again in places like NYC and we wouldn’t see a blow up for a while. People still working from home mostly isolating. Nothing forcing them back into the pool like school or college.
First day back to live poker… 7 handed, home game in an isolated space, masks required, and if there’s not nose compliance I’ll be out of there. Of the six others, I know two are likely being very careful, one is mostly WFH and very careful, one is mostly WFH and is being somewhat careful and will respect boundaries. I know little/nothing about the other two other than that they’ll be wearing masks.
Just tried on my N95s and picked the one that seals off best to use. I tied a little loop in the band to tighten it up. I’ll take a couple extra in case a strap snaps. I’ll be taking a bottle of hand sanitizer, a canister of disinfectant wipes, a 64oz jug of diet iced green tea, and several fig bars. I’ll go outside to eat or drink, and be very careful with wiping stuff down, sanitizing my hands, and not touching my face pre-sanitizing.
Next time maybe I’ll have the safety glasses.
Any other suggestions for safety, let me know… I think the biggest key is being willing to walk if I don’t like what I see.
The critical proportion of the population (Pc) required for herd immunity is Pc = 1 - 1/R0, where R0 is the number of people each infected person goes on to infect.
The article you’re quoting is talking about is modifying the R0. If you modify R0 to 1 or less, the critical proportion of the population required for herd immunity is 0. Voila, herd immunity achieved. We aren’t anywhere close to that though, even if proper buy in from society could get us there.
You keep referring to some sort of ‘modified herd immunity’ where growth is smaller as the population infected gets larger. That’s true to a small amount, however the issue is that the math here is exponential. 1.5^n is going to get to the same place as 1.7^n. I wish I could give you a formulaic explanation of this effect, but epidemiology isn’t my specialty and that’s beyond me. I’m like 95% sure that the effect you’re talking about is exponential as you approach Pc, with very little effect before you just get there. To be fair, I’m not sure how to explain that.
the n95 is going to be brutal to wear for extended periods of time. Just remember that perfect compliance with a good medical mask is better than ok compliance with a n95.
I had a lot of friends get pozzed because they fucked up using their P100 or whatever fancy ass respiratory they had.
There’s a big difference between a medical grade n95 that can pass a fit test and what construction guys typically wear. My face was bruised for about two months wearing them 12 hours at a time.