I worry about this also. We don’t need to wonder what will happen when the places like PA and NY who have had more severe restrictions relax them. We have seen the results all over the country and world. The only question is if they will have the guts to increase restrictions when this inevitably happens. Most places haven’t. Add in the fact that the places who had the highest restrictions are also likely most susceptible to spread and that might be a serious problem.
2 Likes
Yeah plus some school districts are open and others are set to open 10/1. So it’s going to be a two-pronged approach to surge. Judging by outdoor dining in my neighborhood, mask usage in restaurants while not eating is < 10%.
I hate the active cases metric, too, but the reason I decided to look into it was trying to get some kind of sense of why some places that really shouldn’t be doing great still seem to be doing okay. A good example of this is our outlier, Massachusetts. In places that track recoveries (obviously not asymptomatic people), it shows how the much lower baseline slows that big spread we’re all expecting to see. Massachusetts is finally starting to pick up again, and that low active case number I think did a decent job of explaining why it’s taken so long to get going.
I consider any place that has 3 days in a row of a particular ‘milestone’ type event to be a trend as over and over in the numbers once that 3 days in a row is hit it tends to stick (this is how the Sturgis effect presented in a bunch of places in a way that showed the trend clearly). The two trends I’m looking for in low burn places are 3 days in a row of 200 new cases and 3 days in a row of 300 new cases. If a place has 3 days in a row at 300 cases, the only way they tend to move below that for awhile is with a lot of reduced testing. The 200 a day milestone can be hit in places that are just ramping testing but it tends to be with inconsistent numbers making it look like aberrations instead of trends.
If anything, what I’d saying I’m trying to do is look for any beacon in the night. We’re flying blind in numerous places. Tests today are down nearly 200k per day from 6 weeks ago. Places are reporting low and/or delayed cases with big obvious testing lags. 30 states have higher than 5% positive. Probably close to 20 are over 10%. Every college place is woefully under testing right now. To me, the best place to look is these ‘lower’ impact places as we’ll be able to see the trend happening in pretty close to real time as was shown by my county level inspection the other day.
2 Likes
Masks are bad because “most child molesters love them.”
This report is an example of why I hate libertarians.
3 Likes
Hey look its the white zombie horde at it again!
My body my choice. Now where have I heard that before. Also 100% whitey.
1 Like
https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1305276870028652547?s=21
As typical for Andy recommend the full thread.
2 Likes
I came here to post this.
This is it ladies and gentlemen. This is the dumbest video I’ve ever seen.
If someone is watching this and has not applied the WAAF to your profile, please show your work.
3 Likes
No more masks! End the tyranny! (no one in the video is being forced to wear a mask)
Utah had by far the worst mask compliance of the states on my recent road trip. Only Moab had people wearing them.
Tyranny though.
Listening to the kid fucking broke me.
What the fuck is the point of teaching if parents are going to undo the effort we put in?
4 Likes
Where is the tear gas and rubber bullets.
If it makes you feel better at least that kid has the freedom to own an automatic weapon. 'Murica.
1 Like
I posted this in the Trump thread but probably belongs here instead:
I hate to suggest it, but somebody needs to invent a way to strategically unleash covid on certain populations. We’d be way better off if 50% of these schmucks in St. George caught Covid and ended up in the hospital.
Someone needs to invent a way to unleash biological warfare?
1 Like
so edgy
So, Mormonism leads to some intense inbreeding, eh?
Countercounterpoint:
1 Like
I saw the first client in my office since March 11th today. It felt very odd but they were extremely tech challenged and needed to come sign the contract and pick up some paperwork I need them to fill out. They wore a mask and we fist bumped while meeting for 10 minutes or so in the lobby of my office.
Like the Cuse thing there is just no way I am going to be able to keep people out of my office for as long as this thing is likely to last. It feels like I am backsliding but I have lost a lot of revenue over the last 6 months not doing in office appointments while all of my competition does. I am still going to do as little as possible.
3 Likes
And here we begin to see the real long lasting dangers of the Trump presidency
1 Like