Well I’ll take solace that I didn’t listen to any of you and put my money back in the stonks market that the absolute bottom to the tune of up 40% since March. :p
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Yeah you might time the top perfectly with your voodoo market timing system. Hurry up and sell, I’m getting impatient.
Everyone needs to calm down, imo. This virus has a way of surprising everyone.
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I sold the high fliers a while back. I’m 1/4 in oil companies (which have been tanking - hah), 1/4 in random mostly INTL stonks, and 1/2 in cash (but euros, not dollars).
Yeah I wanted to get into FXE at 105, and INTL stocks a few weeks back, but I haven’t made the time. Bad job by me.
A buddy of mine knew some people running a home game. I don’t know about masks and all, but all 8 of them got pozzed. One hospitalization, the rest are asymptomatic and only know because they got tested. Hopefully that holds.
A few of them were old with a lot of comorbidities, they are tossing around the idea that they had crossover protection from the “Vegas flu.”
Let’s hope.
I got the Vegas flu in Dec and am hoping my antibodies or T-cells or whatever are still girded up from that.
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I can only go back to 3/13, but I consider the start of Part 1 of the First Wave to be 3/11. I consider the start of Part 2 to be 6/14, and the start of Part 3 to be 8/31 (within a few days of either side of that as it’s too early to tell for sure yet).
The source for the active cases is 1point3acres, and it’s probably the best source that can be found for this information regardless of its accuracy. A handful of places are reporting very small amounts of recoveries, and Florida apparently doesn’t report any. That means it’s unlikely Florida’s active case total is anywhere near the total listed here. We can thank Ron DeSantis for helping us fly so blind. If I were to make a guess, I’d say Florida’s active cases in reality are probably somewhat similar but a bit worse than Texas.
Math whizzes could use the Part 2 and Part 3 active case start totals to potentially begin making predictions based on these baselines. As the caveat, the places that are most likely not accurate on active cases here are (way too high): WA, NY, NJ, CO, FL, GA, PA, VA, MD, SC, RI, CT, AZ, and ID.
I think a math whiz can probably back in a decent guess of active cases in these places by comparing other similarly sized places/densities to their positive percentage and number of new cases. I’m definitely not capable of that type of work.
The Early Growth Part 3 vs. Part 2 as of 9/13/20 column is describing how quickly active cases are moving in the early stages of Part 3 (first 14 days so far) vs. the early stages of Part 2. It’s important to note that in many places recoveries are very high, which keeps active cases down as they’re reported. Any place that’s listed as slower growth is moving more slowly than the place moved during what was for most places the catastrophic Part 2. Any place that’s moving faster is doing worse than it was in the early stages of Part 2. In other words, moving slower might be good, but it also could catch up a little later due to a lower active case count. If a place is moving faster than the early stage of Part 2, that’s almost objectively bad, in my opinion. 25 of 52 places are moving slower, 26 of 52 are moving faster, and 1 of 52 is about the same. Of the places that are moving slower, the ones that I think are most likely lagging are: MA, TX (maybe not), FL, LA, TN, NV, NC, MN, SC, OH, IN, SD, UT, and OK.
If correct, we’re about to get into some really bad territory as things such as colleges and schools continue to open with no end in sight yet. To keep the table simple, ‘Rank Cases P1’ means ‘Active Cases Rank P1’, etc. Everything shown here as said above is related to active cases.
| Active Cases at Each | Active Cases P1 Start | Rank Cases P1 Start | Active Cases P2 Start | Rank Cases P2 Start | Active Cases P3 Start | Rank Cases P3 Start | Early Growth Part 3 vs. Part 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Wave Part | 3/13/20 | 3/13/20 | 6/14/20 | 6/14/20 | 8/31/20 | 8/31/20 | As of 9/13/20 |
| WA | 472 | 1 | 19376 | 17 | 66494 | 15 | slower |
| NY | 409 | 2 | 308514 | 1 | 341844 | 3 | faster |
| CA | 296 | 3 | 109458 | 3 | 396553 | 2 | slower |
| MA | 123 | 4 | 13348 | 20 | 25129 | 25 | slower |
| CO | 76 | 5 | 24980 | 15 | 49907 | 16 | about the same |
| TX | 51 | 6 | 28409 | 14 | 109365 | 10 | slower |
| NJ | 50 | 7 | 150300 | 2 | 171917 | 6 | faster |
| FL | 49 | 8 | 72271 | 5 | 611903 | 1 | slower |
| IL | 44 | 9 | 55663 | 6 | 147210 | 7 | faster |
| GA | 40 | 10t | 54853 | 7 | 264331 | 4 | faster |
| PA | 40 | 10t | 75620 | 4 | 129703 | 8 | faster |
| LA | 35 | 12 | 9590 | 26 | 15305 | 32 | slower |
| OR | 32 | 13 | 3319 | 38 | 21369 | 26 | slower |
| VA | 30 | 14 | 45779 | 9 | 103003 | 11 | faster |
| TN | 27 | 15 | 9970 | 25 | 36315 | 20 | slower |
| MI | 25 | 16 | 17869 | 18 | 33692 | 21 | faster |
| NV | 20 | 17 | 2674 | 40 | 6616 | 39 | slower |
| MD | 19 | 18t | 54212 | 8 | 98372 | 12 | faster |
| NC | 19 | 18t | 19479 | 16 | 27988 | 24 | slower |
| WI | 19 | 18t | 5505 | 31 | 7775 | 37 | faster |
| IA | 17 | 21 | 8872 | 27 | 16972 | 31 | faster |
| KY | 14 | 22t | 8532 | 28 | 37083 | 19 | faster |
| NE | 14 | 22t | 7282 | 30 | 8880 | 35 | faster |
| MN | 14 | 22t | 3050 | 39 | 6330 | 40 | slower |
| SC | 13 | 25t | 13120 | 21 | 111192 | 9 | slower |
| RI | 13 | 25t | 13679 | 19 | 19218 | 28 | faster |
| OH | 13 | 25t | 33501 | 13 | 17073 | 30 | slower |
| CT | 12 | 28t | 40791 | 10 | 48351 | 17 | faster |
| IN | 12 | 28t | 35122 | 11 | 21170 | 27 | slower |
| AZ | 11 | 30 | 34474 | 12 | 196636 | 5 | slower |
| NM | 10 | 31t | 5172 | 33 | 11611 | 34 | slower |
| DC | 10 | 31t | 8102 | 29 | 2280 | 46 | slower |
| AR | 9 | 33 | 4214 | 36 | 5463 | 42 | slower |
| SD | 8 | 34 | 919 | 43 | 2727 | 44 | slower |
| NH | 7 | 35 | 1009 | 42 | 228 | 51 | faster |
| MS | 6 | 36t | 5267 | 32 | 17765 | 29 | slower |
| UT | 6 | 36t | 10166 | 24 | 47694 | 18 | slower |
| AL | 5 | 38t | 11336 | 23 | 75734 | 14 | faster |
| KS | 5 | 38t | 4544 | 35 | 14818 | 33 | faster |
| MO | 4 | 40t | 11490 | 22 | 80308 | 13 | faster |
| PR | 4 | 40t | 4893 | 34 | 31915 | 22 | faster |
| DE | 4 | 40t | 3670 | 37 | 7443 | 38 | faster |
| HI | 4 | 40t | 82 | 51 | 5824 | 41 | faster |
| MT | 4 | 40t | 73 | 52 | 1987 | 48 | slower |
| OK | 3 | 45 | 1289 | 41 | 8681 | 36 | slower |
| ME | 2 | 46t | 520 | 46 | 467 | 50 | faster |
| WY | 2 | 46t | 204 | 49 | 623 | 49 | slower |
| VT | 2 | 46t | 163 | 50 | 141 | 52 | slower |
| ID | 1 | 49t | 683 | 44 | 28705 | 23 | faster |
| AK | 1 | 49t | 238 | 48 | 3180 | 43 | faster |
| ND | 1 | 49t | 348 | 47 | 2363 | 45 | faster |
| WV | 0 | 52 | 620 | 45 | 2016 | 47 | faster |
Well two students have come down with covid at the school. Thankfully I don’t teach either of them. But the way students interact with each other means it’s a matter of time before everything is shut. We’ll be lucky to make it through the week.
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Just realized that I haven’t had a covid patient in over a week. First time I can remember that since March. That really hit me.
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Pubs too…
I’m not sure where they’d get that idea.
A lot of people that accept wearing masks are still thinking that its a thing to do to be responsible for an abstract greater good, but that a gathering of friends and family isn’t going to be a problem. Particularly if our friends and family are being careful, right?
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FWIW I hate the active cases metric. How many case have reported resolutions that low or no symptoms? It’s why I switched to 14 day sum of positives (but that of course is still impacted by poz rate).
But the point that we are climbing then plateau or small valley and the start climbing again from a higher point than the previous climb is very valid. It was like FL and TX OFB at their peaks back in May!
I am very stressed about what October is going to look like then P4 kicking off during the holidays.
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Most of the regular contributors in here are sincere and are positive additions to the discussion. There are some notable exceptions and of course there will be misunderstandings and strong disagreements from time to time.
Maybe I’m naive but some of the long running animosities itt are bewildering to me. It’s like a couple arguing over stuff from 20 years ago sometimes.
Full disclaimer: I went off on the wrong person the other day and quickly took it down, but I’m sure someone must have seen it in the two minutes it was up. So I’m coming from a sense of sheepishness for my own hair trigger.
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I personally feel like we are in that May/early June trend again right now where almost everywhere is trending down as people’s behavior is trending the wrong direction. I personally think there are some reasons to be optimistic and some reasons to be pessimistic about the next few months.
I think it is possible we never revisit the July case highs again. Some reasons for this are:
-A much larger % of people should have antibodies right now than ever so some of the transmission chains will be broken by this. If we are undercounting by a factor of 5-10x that means something like 10-20% of the population has already had it now.
-A much larger % of people are wearing masks now than in May. This is undeniable to me. Back in May pre-mask mandate it was sub 50%, now it is 90%+ here and that way everywhere I have been with a mandate.
-Early fall should still be good for outdoor activities. Maybe this means we have a slower burn for a while longer. It might allow more people to gain temporary immunity prior to winter without a huge spike right away.
-Suzzer’s long standing point that the people most likely to get it will have already had it as we move forward. The low hanging fruit theory. I think there must be some merit to it.
-Treatment is getting better and better.
-College kids largely just infecting themselves and their communities. Most college towns are relatively small. As long as these kids aren’t going back and forth to their hometowns the sheer numbers are somewhat capped.
The reasons for pessimism are:
-LOL college kids not going home.
-Open for school is likely to be an unmitigated disaster.
-Who knows how long immunity lasts for.
-People seem to be increasingly in a DGAF mentality about Covid.
-Trump rallies.
-Sporting events with fans.
-Flu season + Covid is likely to be bad and could cause hospital overruns.
-Cases lag infection and death lags by even longer so the effects of OFS are not fully seen yet.
I’m sure i missed some on both sides in my haste to write that up. But I feel like we are back at May 31st just with a higher baseline. A lot of us expect cases/deaths to rise again, but we are very clearly in a decline over the last 6 weeks in most places. Whether or not we see another sharp increase I think is very much up in the air.
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Anecdotally my wife’s ICU has been in single digit Covid cases for a couple of weeks now after peaking out in July in the 30s. We also haven’t heard a single story to my knowledge over the past few weeks about hospitals being dangerously close to being overrun.
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Officially opted my kids out of in-person school for the rest of the semester. They aren’t slated to go back for another month (elementary school early October, middle school two weeks later, high school two weeks later), so even if we were thinking about sending them back, it seems pointless to not wait until at least next semester. I doubt we’ll send them back next semester, unless there is some amazing improvement in COVID numbers.
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NYC schools start back on Wednesday. Because of a dispute with the teacher’s union, all students will be remote this week.
The latest figures I have seen show that 40% of students will be doing online-only learning. The remaining 60% of students will be doing a blended approach, and those students will show up at school starting next week. Blended students will either be on a two-cohort model or a three-cohort model depending on the school. To increase distancing, only one cohort will actually be at school per day, and the other cohorts will learn remotely on those days.
New York state has launched an online dashboard for public school COVID results. I haven’t found a good way to see a summary of results across all districts, but the NYC school district is here: https://schoolcovidreportcard.health.ny.gov/#/districtData;bedsCodeId=300000
Update on me and my mom - her test came back negative after a 3 day wait. Very happy about that.
My symptoms continued to get worse for another day, to the point where on Friday I was having difficulty breathing the entire day. Slight chest pain/tightness and having to work to get a deep breath every 3-5 minutes or so. I called my PCP after hours just to talk to someone and get a plan in place heading into the weekend in case things got worse. The on call physicians answering service said the best they can do is patch me through to the ER triage. ER triage said “we can’t discuss symptoms or make a medical diagnosis over the phone, but we’re open 24hrs a day so come in if you feel you need to”. Like I thought the entire purpose of having a nurse on the phone was to limit the number of people unnecessarily going in to the ER? Such a joke of a system we have.
Thankfully I’m feeling a little better now. Still definitely have something going on, by not nearly as concerned it may be COVID. Slight cough persists, and lingering breathing difficulties, but certainly not as bad as Friday.
UP no pozz run lives on!
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