I think there may be a category of immunity that could be partially responsible for the eventual dissipation of the disease. Especially if it is indeed true that the initial “viral load” has a big impact as to whether you get infected and how serious the disease will be. It may be that fighting off viral loads may be similar to exercising. As long as you subject yourself to weights or some such thing in a slightly increasing manner, your body can deal with more and more resistance. If that is true it means that as time goes by, more and more people can fight off larger and larger initial viral loads even though they never gotten infected. Since that number increases just like the number of actually infected increases, we may have a situation where the herd immunity numbers may be given more credit than they deserve because it is partially correlation rather than causation.
If you read some of those other articles - detectable antibodies are expected to fade. It’s the memory of how to quickly crank them up again that lasts.
It’s like air in your tires. Yes 10-20% of normal pressure is more than none. But practically where are you going with 5psi? At some point you can start to drive. But probably more like 15-20 psi to get anywhere without disaster.
Jfc people. Give it up. The highest place in the country was Rand Paul’s argument and Fauci called bullshit in no uncertain terms.
Forever? You mean like the flu shot?
I think the problem is getting an effective vaccine. So maybe not annually in perpetuity.
But 4-5 generations of every improving vaccines. Fairly likely.
To be clear I am not arguing that 10-20% of us having had it means we should behave any differently. I am just saying it may be a (small) mitigating factor. Much larger mitigating factors like masks and people not behaving like morons should be the main focus. The whole “herd immunity” argument the right is making is complete bullshit to try and paper over the incompetent response.
Yeah it doesn’t need to mutate much when it is spreading so easily and rapidly
As more people get it and we have a better response to it, it may mutate more rapidly to adapt as the mutations that can spread in the harder conditions will win out.
If I have covid and go into a small room with 100 people, I will randomly give it to a fair number of them.
If 1 or 2 or 10 of them already had it, the number who I give it to won’t be that much lower.
If 50 of them had it already, then there should be a meaningful decrease in how many I give it to.
The 1, 2, 10 “partial herd immunity” didn’t really do much, if anything.
Over 80% of Covid-19 cases in Africa could be asymptomatic, WHO warns
While confirmed Covid-19 cases and death rates remain low in many African countries, early results in some communities suggest a higher number of infections than those reported, said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO Regional Director for Africa.
“Preliminary analysis suggests that over 80% of cases in Africa are asymptomatic,” she said during a press briefing Thursday.
The swift action of governments on the continent to impose early lockdowns, and the public’s general adherence to movement restrictions, created a “window of opportunity” to keep cases low, Dr. Moeti said. Since many countries have begun easing restrictions and opening economies back up, there has been an uptick of cases.
But experts are unable to conclusively explain the low death rates on the continent. “We don’t know the exact factors that are causing it, we just know that some of the factors are more probable,” said Dr. Sam Agatre Okuonzi from Uganda.
The panel described probable factors such as a majority youthful population, the frequency with which many Africans spend outdoors and the less movement and interaction in rural areas, as potential explanations.
Another potential factor scientists are studying is the level of potential cross-immunity that has developed from exposure to previous coronaviruses.
“Research is required to characterize the disease and the pandemic in Africa and this work is just beginning,” Dr. Okuonzi said.
Hot weather = less viral load = less severity of infection could possibly explain places like Africa, Indian slums, Manaus, etc.
I don’t know why my original statement is so controversial. I said - things we have working against us right now wrt to a winter disaster: back to school, college kids coming back home, cold weather coming, general quarantine fatigue/complacency.
And I said the only things working for us in regards to a winter blowup are that some % have already gotten it. Also a big chunk of that % would seem to be the people who can’t isolate because of their jobs and/or live in multi-generational housing. Assuming they don’t get it all over again - some of that low-hanging fruit for the virus is gone.
This assumes stuff like masks, office drones like me still mostly quarantining, and new treatments - remain constant from summer through fall and into winter.
I don’t think any of this is controversial. I’m still very worried about a winter blowup. But for some reason it’s considered bad form in this thread to mention potential mitigating factors or compare stuff like dining indoors with good ventilation to spending 3 hours in a bar slobbering all over a bunch of choads. Like I’m going to open pandora’s box and we’ll all be headed to Cheesecake Factory in a week.
I know for me a lot of my venting at you back in April and May was just general frustration with the situation creeping into these conversations. I was angry at anti-science morons and so tended to jump down the throat of anyone who bothered to post some unproven theories even though they weren’t being anti-science. You were just trying to make sense of it like we all have been. I have to imagine that is a part of it now. I also think the timing being the day after the Rand Paul thing didn’t help you haha.
Well, I’m a lowly associate professor in emergency medicine so I don’t know, but that term probably isn’t going to be decided by another lowly associate professor also working outside of their specialty in a preprint.
edit: for reference, ‘partial herd immunity’ brings up literally zero results in pubmed.
FWIW I know people who are being very careful and only doing outdoor distanced hangouts but they will get close to each other maskless real quick for pictures. Maybe this is the same.
Probably not though because a lot of people seem to be easing up.
My Dad got tested to help is with the move. Yesterday, after washing his hands and before eating, he touched some stuff that wasn’t sanitized. I was like “What are you doing???”
He said that I don’t understand how smear transmission works, it’s not like you just touch something for a few seconds and it’s on you. The virus isn’t magic!
All the facepalms in all the world. I said that’s actually exactly how it works, then we both shook our heads in disbelief at how stupid we both think the other is.
Why would people do this though? I don’t want to show all my friends proof of how stupid I am for getting together with some of my friends. Also at the very least take a picture of yourselves in masks and show people who don’t wear masks that it’s possible to do so around your friends and still have a good time. I’ve got together with a group of 6-10 friends now a few times (always outside and always spaced out and sometimes with masks) and you can be damn sure I’m not letting anyone take a picture of me without a mask on haha
They are dangerous to discuss because they give people false hope and in this case the benefits are pretty low. I have a good friend IRL who is a lot like suzzer - he takes the most positive possible news and builds his COVID views around it. He’s all in on partial herd immunity saving us and full herd immunity being reached at 30-40% instead of 50-80%. He also thinks a highly effective and totally safe vaccine in January is very likely. Also thinks the multiplier of confirmed tests to get total cases is probably more like 15-20x than 4-6x.
He’s cycled through these things but latches onto a new one when the old ones go down in flames.
And to try to get us to stop taking precautions and go catch the virus.
I think it’s kind of silly but they think it’s safe for 15 seconds (it probably is) and they want photos of their daughter, them, and their parents all together. I think sharing them is bad but they always specify that it was a distanced hang out.
Also is literally every single person who puts their mask on at the very last second before walking into a store an obvious trump supporting old white boomer? It is really that hard to put your mask on in the car and take a look at yourself in a mirror to make sure its properly fitted before getting out?
I do this
fight me!
but seriously i go to costco and theres a hundred people in the parking lot and the only person to wait until we’re getting carts 15 feet from the entrance to put their mask on is an old white dude.
i’m pumping gas at costco with 20 people and it says in front of every pump you must wear a mask and the only people not wearing masks are driving a truck or they have a ghost white pony tail and a corvette or some shit.
like i aint getting out of my car without a mask on and if i somehow forget to put my mask on i freak out and look around like i’m about to scream out “nobody look at me its fine guys i’m not one of those people i just forgot to put my mask on sorry!”
To be fair I’m being a bit sarcastic. When I’m outside walking around I’m usually mask off, but I put my mask on as a courtesy if I’m approaching a group of people on the sidewalk and obviously put it on before entering any store. I’m just not trying to wear it more than I need to if I’m outside and well distanced from other people.
I put my mask on in the car because I like to pretend I’m getting out of the car in slow motion, about to rob the joint.
My kids and I had dentist appointments a few months ago. The dentist’s office is above a bank. The three of us had masks that were pointy at the bottom, so they looked like something wild west robbers would wear. You know we acted like we were going to rob the bank. I told one kid to cover the back exit and the other to take care of the guard.