That is lowering the bar so far that it’s meaningless. Is the effect zero? Of course not. The question really is the effect meaningful. I’m not sure about this, but I think that this is an exponential equation that gets the vast majority of value on the end.
Also, nowhere near 20% of the USA has had COVID. Confirmed cases are around 2%, which is obviously too low but it’s not going close to 20%
Among the big unknowns right now are the # of people who have been infected, how long immunity lasts if you catch it, and how long immunity will last from the vaccines that are in the pipeline.
We’re talking multiple vaccines per year in ROW, presumably for a reason
No let’s be clear here. It’s not ‘worst case scenario’. It’s wrong. If it was true, we’d have data supporting it. We’ve had a lot of people get infected and resolved more than 90 days ago. Sporadic reports of positive tests without symptoms are all I’m aware of at this point.
Forever?
That makes a lot of sense and is mentioned in the article I posted. It seems like it’s possible for people to have the virus in their nasal canal, so they test positive, but the virus never really moves anywhere to generate an immune response.
It makes total sense those people could catch it again and actual get the disease the second time. There might be tons more people like that out there because asymptomatic people aren’t getting tested all that much.
The people who got the disease should probably have a lot more immunity.
I think most other vaccines are forever i.e need a flu one each year, forever as it currently stands.
Even the 10yr vaccines are every 10 years
This is from a major study I linked to a few days ago: 5-year projections from worst case to best case:
I believe they’ve found this mutates a lot less than the flu. So it may be less frequent than once/year.
I believe covid’s 9 months old so hard to draw conclusions on mutations. Also more deadly than the flu - I’m your age and getting my first flu vaccination this year but won’t delay with a UK / Euro / WHO approved covid vaccine, assuming it works and if offered.
WH position in only contributing to / backing US vaccines seems small minded / -EV but you already knew that.
flu has a completely different type of structure than covid that allows for it to mix various H and N proteins that are mostly interchangeable, on top of other typical mutations.
There’s nothing to suggest that covid has a similar mutation possibility.
What if CaffeineNeeded was ikes this whole time?
If yes I’m glad you’re here if no infinite apologies and please keep posting
All these articles less than 5 hrs old…
It’s obv going to evolve, but there’s good reason to think it mutates much more slowly than most RNA viruses.
Yes it’s mutating. But not as much as other similar viruses apparently.
RNA viruses tend to evolve rapidly — about a million times faster than human genes. Yet if SARS-CoV-2 stands out among them, it is for evolving more slowly than many: about five times less rapidly than the influenza viruses, for example.
According to Nextstrain, an open-source project that tracks the evolution of pathogens in real time, and other sources, SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating an average of about two mutations per month — which means that the forms of the virus circulating today are only about 15 mutations or so different from the first version traced to the outbreak in Wuhan.
This is a tiny number considering that the SARS-CoV-2’s genome is about 30,000 nucleotides long. And it means, too, that the versions of the virus today are roughly 99.95 percent the same as the Wuhan original. For an RNA virus, SARS-CoV-2 is in the slow lane of evolution.
(So talk about SARS-CoV-2 having developed into however many different “strains” is misleading. Scientists tend to reserve the word for versions of a virus that differ in major biological ways. SARS-CoV-2’s different forms are very similar; better to call them “variants.”)
The coronavirus’s sluggish pace of mutation is good news for us: A virus that evolved more rapidly would have a greater chance of outrunning any vaccines or drugs developed to counter it.
More on immunity.
Those articles, if I understand them correctly, are awful - they imply that masks/handwashing is becoming ineffective which is not the case at all.
I know it’s DHS but this seems to be a really good document. Everything it matches jibes with what we know (it trashes HCQ), and it has a ton of new info.
Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is possible, but the frequency of reinfection is unknown.
The strength and duration of any immunity after initial COVID-19 infection is unknown.
• In a small study (n=65), 95% of patients developed neutralizing antibodies within 8 days of symptom onset,552 but neutralizing antibody titers declined substantially when assayed after 60 days.
Wave/s…(UK garph)
