Since Korea has like a few hundred cases per day in a country of tens of millions of people they can actually trace each each case back to a probable transmission event.
In the US, there is no knowing anything at all, unless you interacted with a known pozz person.
I don’t know how true this is, but I’ve also heard that some kind of DNA-type testing can be done on the virus to link it between patients. Or maybe that was in a movie.
Yep, they can do that too, although in USA#1 we don’t trifle with such silliness.
In other news, the Thanksgiving dip appears illusory as many suspected. The numbers from just Tuesday thru Thursday were bad enough that we’re already hitting record 7DMA in cases. We desperately need a lockdown right now because this is really bad, and deteriorating rapidly.
ETA: A month or so ago someone asked for consensus about what the O/U line for 7DMA deaths would be on Christmas day. I voted 4,000, but the majority chose 3,000. I think I was incorrect given the information available at the time. 3,000 was the likelier number. However, I think now 3,000 would be a very optimistic guess. imo we will be very lucky if it’s that low.
Maryland reporting almost 3800 cases today. Our previous high was like 2800, and it’s been about 18 days since we cracked 2000 for the first time.
Probably not me. But shit I hope this comes around early 2021
Even at its peak the Czech Republic wouldn’t be 500+ on that map.
Thankfully, at the lower end of that 100-500 range now
Teachers also get free testing during the next 2 weeks! Get my freebie tests right before leaving the country.
We’re on day 3 no preschool because of covid scare. I am not having fun
Remember when we used to have almost no states with 1,000 cases a day or 20 deaths a day? Now every single state is hitting that mark. Yesterday we had 6 states with over 10k cases and 8 states with over 100 deaths with several states barely missing those metrics. We had roughly 1/3 of the total worldwide cases and 1/4 of the worldwide deaths with 4% of the world’s population yesterday.
With cases still on the rise we are a long way from the worst of this unfortunately. Almost every state is still headed the wrong direction with no end in sight and no appetite by any government entities to act in any meaningful way. STONKS are up I guess so everything is fine.
I mean really we’re just now getting to the point where Thanksgiving cases will start showing up in the numbers. Minimum 4-5 days after exposure until tests start reliably pozzing, and who knows how long of a delay between the test and getting results. The next 7-10 days are going to absolutely explode in case numbers.
Would be fascinating if years from now, they could easily and cheaply trace the spread and report how much each person was responsible for.
I think it’s going to be hard to draw any meaningful conclusions for at least a week. We’ve got 2 things going on:
It’s going to be hard to figure out where the first (artificial) one stops and the second (real) one starts.
Through yesterday the 7dma included both the holiday period and the last few days where presumably those numbers were caught up right? Our 7dma is the highest it has been now in this wave for cases and deaths so I think it is fair to say even though there was some noise with Thanksgiving we are still heading up in cases/deaths even prior to the likely Thanksgiving bump.
I mostly agree with you that we should be close to catching up. The problem is that there still seems to be something wonky when I look at the estimated CFR:
Either we’ve experienced a fairly large drop in fatality rates in the last week or there’s still a backlog of deaths that we’re waiting for to show up.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1334894131286585358
edit now i see this was posted in the investing thread, but think it’s prob gonna get more discussion here
We are truly surrounded by insane people on all fronts. It’s terrifying.
I’m on month 8 of Uncle Brad (or as she says, Brad Uncle) daycare for my 2 year old niece. It finds new ways to exhaust me every day. And the lack of any kind of government financial support means that I’m falling way behind in potential earnings while unemployed due to covid and unable to work on making money in other ways. That’s the price to pay for being responsible and not sending a child into a germ factory every day. This country has truly failed us.
Lol, rookie
There you go. No way anything sudden happens with fatality rates in actuality. Has to be some kind of data bias. Backlog makes sense.
Also note that In areas with new case spikes it will take time for the cfr to catch up so there will be declines but they should be more gradual than your chart.
who is that moron?
I’m starting to think even the blue states are totally done with lockdowns. Delaware just issued a bunch of stay at home guidelines. Like please stay at home pretty please, we won’t enforce it but please? But if not, wear a mask.
It pisses me off because my dad won’t stop going to his bowling league (50 people) until the state shuts it down. He says if they’re allowing it, it can’t be that dangerous. He trusts his government.
I keep explaining that they probably can’t shut down for budgetary reasons - they can’t print money to help people and there’s no federal aid. He doesn’t seem to grasp that.
