Same as the good old days but with even more inflated assets, soooooo depressing.
We had ~30 people with legit covid symptoms today in the ER on a pretty slow day overall. 5 positives on our rapid tests, 4 admissions.
This is in the smaller ER that I work at. This isn’t overwhelming by any means, but keep this growth up and the hospital will be full quite soon.
You’re doing fine Oklahoma.
We have a big advantage in distribution though, we can just give the vaccine to Tim Hortons to hand out with each double double and 94% of Canadians will be done by 8am.
It’s not really living without college football. Chessmate libtard.
Instead of “Playing college football” it should say “ROLL TIDE!”
Imo
post about paper industry more interesting than I’d have expected
Well the current setup at schools in the CR is a nightmare. It’s a bit to explain.
Only a few grades are allowed back as of now. One rule from the DoE is that classes must stay separate from other classes at all times.
In a vacuum this is completely practical. However, foreign language classes at my school are divided by skill level, not their listed class. My English groups are comprised of the top 25% from two different classes. To comply with the law, they must be split into separate rooms.
This means that one half of the class is taught while the other is alone and gets busy work. Of course, the unsupervised half is masks off and no social distancing which defeats the purpose of the split. I then teach the group that was unsupervised the next day we’re in school (in-person schooling is currently every other day). Of course, the switch will lead to masks off in the group I taught today.
So much stupidity.
Xmas deaths is pretty much baked in by thanksgiving. The question is- how much more suppression of the case number is there due to lack of testing and holiday related reporting delays?
I’m confident there is some new bias in the data and it’s in the direction of more under reporting of cases. Hard to say how much. But I don’t think a plateau. A slowing in growth is possible. Again as I’ve said to Witchita, I have little faith in the numbers until mid next week now.
I’m using 200k x 2% and to me that’s the floor for Xmas. Given the past trend it could be as high as 250k which would be 5,000. (All 7 day averages). So the spikes or leading edge for 4,000 7DRA will be 5,000+.
So on the fatality curve thanksgiving effects show up mostly in January.
I’d use the word “conservative” in modeling instead of “optimistic”. Given the case loads for hospital capacity issue I am certainly pessimistic about the cfr holding where it’s at. I handed out one aggressive growth curve and freaked us al out, especially me. I was depressed for two days. Not doing a data pull this week is for mental health as much as not trusting the holiday week data.
The longer you and your bubble go without a positive the more careless you are likely to become. Sadly that’s human nature.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people get little caustic burns from handling sodium hydroxide. They handle it for years no problem and then start treating solutions like water, not fully protecting their arms. Shit is insidious. No pain or irritation at first. You get sulfuric acid on your skin and you know it immediately. NaOH nothing until it dissolved the first layer of skin. The it itches. Then people scratch it in deeper. Then comes the pain.
If you want to know more about the paper industry there’s a goat docuseries on a small sales company. Bonus that it’s located in one of the few non Philly/Pitt towns in PA that voted for Biden.
Oh no did I just pull a Dan with this gif? I’m not even that old.
An update on my home district. Welp.
One of the neighbouring district actually has the highest rate of newly cofirmed cases, over 520 per 100k inhabitants. Our district has about half that rate (but still trending upwards, despite the lockdown). 12 deaths so far, 6 of them in the last two weeks.
Active cases:
I work around 50% NaOH and large tanks that contain about 10% w/w NaOH and I’m pretty lax about covering my arms. I also know immediately if I got some on my skin that I need to get it off but yeah I’ve felt the itch and had some very minor burns before.
Also have had nasty sulfuric and nitric acid burns (still have a scar from one of them), it was back in my young chemistey days and I wanted to know what it would feel like to put a few drops on my arm, yes I might be a little crazy and dumb. I probably would have made a great alchemist if I’d been born a couple hundred years ago
Looks like we’ve hit an inflection point in cases, but Thanksgiving could well give COVID a turbo boost.
Again all- please be careful with the current case numbers.
Testing limits due to high demand and holiday related delays. Hold off on all conclusions.
Please and thank you.
I think it’s also the case that the compounding probability of low-likelihood random events means that you’ll see more people experiencing these events as the horizon increases. I think I’m an example of that.
The morning of election day, I got a call from my sister saying that my mom (in Florida) had been taken to the ER for unknown reasons. (Happy spoiler: after a few shaky days, it looks like she’s going to be ok) Mom was in the hospital for several days and my sister (also in Florida) was able to be there, visit her, and take care of things around the house. But when my mom was released, she really wasn’t able to take care of herself at all.
So sister2 (in Georgia) took over the next shift of about a week. But she, like me, has a job and a family, and my mom still wasn’t able to care for herself. So I took the next shift. (This was around Friday 11/13). I considered driving down from Ohio, but that would have been about a 15 hour trip each way. So, doing something I would never have imagined a month ago, I flew from Ohio to Tampa and spent 9 days in Florida. Here are some of my experiences and some of the precautions we took:
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Mom tested negative for COVID at the hospital. (She wasn’t showing symptoms; this was just a standard test for everyone.) So our expectation was that she was in the clear.
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Sister1 was only in contact with Mom at the hospital, where masks are required.
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Sister2 wore a mask the entire time she was with Mom at home. Sister2 also got tested the day she returned home (negative).
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I flew on Southwest, which (until 12/1) keeps all middle seats open. I didn’t eat or drink at the airport. A few randoms in the Columbus airport were chin-masking, but most people wore masks. As far as I could tell on the flight, everyone was wearing a mask properly.
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Rented a car in Tampa. On shuttle to the rental terminal, one doofus lady was chin-masking. That was the first time I felt at risk in any way - we were in an enclosed tram for several minutes.
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At mom’s house, I wore a mask whenever I was in the same room with her. When we ate, we ate in different rooms. I did have a lot of close contact with her (e.g., bringing her food/medicine/whatever), though.
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Went to a grocery store and a local Walmart for supplies. Despite signs up on the front saying masks were required at each place, shoppers weren’t super diligent. In Walmart especially, I was surprised at how many people just flat out weren’t even pretending to wear a mask. Luckily, I wasn’t near any of them for any sustained amount of time, but still not great.
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I flew back home this past Saturday. Since then, I’ve been in semi-quarantine. I’ve been sleeping in my basement and wearing a mask whenever I’m in the same room as anyone else in my family. I don’t eat in the same room they do.
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I got tested yesterday, but haven’t gotten the results back yet. I’m sure there’s a possibility that I got pozzed late last week or on the trip back, and therefore 4 days of incubation might not be enough time for me to show up positive. That being said, I don’t actually know that I’ve been exposed at any time, and I’m going to interpret a negative test (knock on wood) as an indication that I can re-join my family.
Overall, I think I handled things pretty well, but I obviously did take risks and may end up catching or spreading the virus. Hopefully not.
edit: Just got negative COVID test result back. 26 hours after test. Whole process was super smooth (run by my university).
Good luck. As a member of the had to fly for a family emergency club I feel your pain. When my two weeks home was up it was a big sigh of relief.
The big difference now is the community spread. As a country we are approaching 1% of the population testing poz in the last 14 days. Many locales are even higher.