COVID-19: Chapter 6 - ThanksGRAVING

Hopefully nobody lied.

Is there any contact tracing in USA #1 yet?

I checked a variety of routes on Delta for this weekend (ATL to DTW, TPA, LGA) and the results are encouraging. Fares are still low (you can fly intra-east coast for like $350 in most cases, still), and flights on Wednesday (busiest travel day) have available inventory half filled, even after the middle seats are blocked out. Normally these flights would be $500+ and 80-90% full by this point. People must actually be staying home at much greater rates than normal.

Some might be driving, but yeah, that does sound better.

I had symptoms but I embellished a little when I went to get tested.

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During the Maryland governor’s COVID presser just now, he had the president of the restaurant association talk for 5 minutes about how important it is that you go out to eat, how safe it is, how you have a responsibility to the servers and bartenders and kitchen staff.

My stepmother came out of retirement to do contact tracing for the county. Based on the technical issues she keeps mentioning, most of which involve either inaccessible data from the state a or department-wide inability to figure out how spreadsheets work, I am not confident they are accomplishing much.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3

evidence suggests that about one in five infected people will experience no symptoms, and they will transmit the virus to significantly fewer people than someone with symptoms.

a meta-analysis published last month, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.

Evidence suggests that most people develop symptoms in 7–13 days

asymptomatic individuals were 42% less likely to transmit the virus than symptomatic people.

Some studies showed that those without symptoms had similar initial viral loads — the number of viral particles present in a throat swab — when compared with people with symptoms. But asymptomatic people seem to clear the virus faster and are infectious for a shorter period.

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Praying for my pony on this 2.5 month old article…something for Chris and Dan to argue about…

I think we have known for awhile that superspreading events/people drive the math on this thing. So seems that until we know who is and who isn’t a spreader the sane play is to limit people having multiple contacts and everyone wear a mask.

Oh wait.

chris who?

That’s not the whole story right now

A lot of people are getting tested right now just to do so before thanksgiving so I’d expect pozz rate to drop since it’s less “likely pozz” in the testing pool than usual

This will probably not be well received, but my wife and I will travel to my home country of Norway for Christmas. I have not seen any of my family for almost a year and a half. I’ve missed my brothers wedding, and I haven’t seen my niece since she was 3 months old.

We weighed the cons, and I really think they are massively outweighed by the positives and risks are not that high.

Norway as everywhere is experiencing a rise in cases, but they clamped down hard from the first sign of trouble, and have already managed to have it trending down. They peaked at ~650 cases a day a week ago. And 2 latest days are at around ~400(5.5 million population). Everyone arriving from a red country needs a negative test taken within the last 72 hours to be let in (so our whole plane will have been tested as well). As rules stand we’ll be escorted to a quarantine hotel straight from the airport and can’t leave the room for 10 days. They will provide 3 meals a day and we’ll also be tested when we land and during our stay. I’m hoping this will be lifted before traveling. So we can do the quarantine at one of the family cabins instead.

After that we will travel to the small town I grew up. They have had a grand total of 2 cases and have been living like normal since June. It’ll feel amazing to kinda experience being back to normal for a couple of weeks.

Do you guys think it’ll be safe to live like normal and skip masks and everything after the 10 day quarantine and 3 negative tests?

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That sounds miserable. Especially the ten-day hotel quarantine. And I say this as someone in almost the exact same scenario (haven’t been home in 2 years; haven’t met my new niece).

I would definitely get more information on the hotel quarantine because people doing hotel quarantine in Australia all comment on how miserable it is to be stuck in a tiny room for 2 weeks. Remember you can’t leave the room at all. No exercise, no fresh air etc.

FYI don’t do this. Thanks. Say you have some basic symptoms. I’ve ended up doing whole big ass workups because people turned their cough into chest pain and sob.

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https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1330923829829492745

I know they don’t give a shit but this is staggering ffs

I’ll be doing a 14 day quarantine in a small, 3 room apartment the first of the year and the thought doesn’t bother me at all. I’m more than fine with stillness. Maybe being a constant grouchy prick on the outside leads to inner peace?

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It will definitely be miserable. Both me and my wife will be working regular days during the week ,on a US schedule. Which will be like 2-10pm local time. So that should fill a huge chunk of our time in there. We will be allowed to call the front desk and go on short walks near the hotel as long as we make sure to keep distance from other people. I do have hope for the quarantine hotel not being required when we go though. The current rules are being assessed on Dec 3. So that should tell us more.

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I assume anytime you expect exaggeration you just recommend a colonoscopy and they feel better?

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As long as you are willing to be careful (or in this case they give you a detailed procedure) no one here should give you crap.

Here we have to make it up on our own. One time I travelled all went to plan and I was able to drive. The second time was on shorter notice in an emergency circumstance and I had to fly Did best we could but it was certainly not close to 0 risk. Got fortunate.

How long do you plan to stay? Hopefully for a good long time?