COVID-19: Chapter 6 - ThanksGRAVING

I don’t understand what you’re saying.

Before the pandemic, kids miss school by being sick, doctor’s appointment or something like that. You know normal shit that people missed school for before covid

If you just looked at lost productivity from people getting sick in general it would probably be worth working on ventilation systems to keep fresh/decontaminated air circulating and not going from one room to another and such things. Probably that’s happening.

Not sure. This alternating days thing was thrown at us at the last minute.

No idea what things will be like Wednesday. That’s how shit works here. Everybody’s constantly responding to last minute policy changes made by the government.

I just meant in the world, not your school in particular.

Also, for anyone following my embedded blogging, my mil just arranged 6 days a week home health for her husband, so I’m covid free and basically free free.

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In fairness, out of all the awful dumb garbage that is happening vis a vis the pandemic, long lines of people getting tested before Thanksgiving is by far not the worst of it. Going partial moron is better than full moron, I guess, and I suppose those long lines at least indicate that some people aren’t itching to kill their family members.

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Yes but getting tested 4-5 days ahead of Thursday is fairly close to useless. When did they start to isolate? Are they isolating between test and Thursday?

Also per our thoughts on positivity

https://twitter.com/marklevinenyc/status/1330900923875520512?s=21

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I’m on your side, and it’ dumb and reckless to travel for large Thanksgiving gatherings, full stop. But I suppose I prefer my elder-murder loving fellow citizens to get tested more rather than less, lulz.

I don’t think this is what’s happening, because cases are exploding everywhere, but if you’re going to make the point that positivity % is artificially low because a bunch of people who otherwise wouldn’t get tested are getting tests for thanksgiving, it stands to reason that cases will be “artificially” high because a some people will have positive tests who would otherwise never have gotten tested, right?

In other words, our undercounting % will be lower during this time frame.

Actually people scheduling Turkey Pozzfest precautionary tests could block symptomatic people from getting tested. It’s been basically impossible to get a test around me, I’ve tried three of the last four days to schedule something (they schedule three days out), and everything was booked solid through today, which is the last day to get a 3-day test result back before Turkey Pozzpalooza.

So at least here in suburban Philly we seem to be at testing capacity, and the group of people trying to get tested includes a bunch of COVIDsgiving participants, which means a chunk of symptomatic people may be blocked out.

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What meaning does positivity rate ever have if you’re going to chalk a low positivity rate up to “a flood of healthy people” getting tested?

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4 hour + waiting time to get tested in NYC.

Had to fight my in-laws a bit who didn’t understand why if we got tested and were negative we wouldn’t want to come out for Thanksgiving with just them and my brother/sisters-in-law.

My brother-in-law has been in quarantine for 10 days now and is waiting on his test results because he’s been sick. I tried to explain that even if his test is negative, it’s still a bad idea for us to come, which I think was accepted.

These are people who have been taking a lot of precautions, generally.

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Positivity rate never means or meant anything without understanding who is getting tested and why.

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I’m not sure it’s wrong but the execution is pretty critical. It isn’t party-test neg on Saturday-party- hi grandma on Thursday. That’s the extreme. Of course lots of not good sub variants well.

Bottom line if you pre quarantine properly you probably don’t need a test anyway.

So bottom line the value of tests will be minor.

Some folks will get surprise and test positive and stay isolated. (Good)

Some folks will test neg but then turn pos by Thursday and not wear a mask cause -hey I tested neg (Really bad)

Most folks will test neg and be neg (meh)

The net? Who knows.

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Don’t disagree but I worry results will lag. Also see systems that use positivity thresholds to make decisions (NY schools) and confusion when positivity drops artificially due to a change in testing pool pattern.

If the pool is consistently a similar sample of the population the signal (%+) means a lot. When we know the sample representation changes then we have to approach the data with caution.

And of course we need to pay attention to try and understand when we’ve changed. Here is a strong hint: cases are going up rapidly while positivity is stable or decreasing and there are massive wait times to get tested and delays to get results.

Much more simply said. Thanks.

3 cases in Shanghai were traced back to cargo handlers at the Shanghai airport, so Chinese officials cancelled 300 flights and administered rapid tests to 17,000 airport employees in a day).

(It also seems like they possibly contemplated locking down the entire airport and quarantining all of the waiting passengers, but gave that up when it looked like that might cause a riot).

Where I live you can only get tested if symptomatic.

And how do they prove you are symptomatic? Is it self reported?

It was in CA. it determined how fast you got your test.

Yes