Looks like I’m going back to school on the 25th.
Will be teaching less than half my classes face to face. The rest are still online.
Which is why everyone here who is able to is working from home, and it’s one reason why infection rates are soaring in USA#190.
It’s really not news but the way the second lockdown here in France has gone has really brought home just what a failure this will have been in most places.
Its effect on cases seems to have been pretty stark (see below), but it’s nothing like the first one. In effect what it has closed is just offices when teleworking is possible, non essential shopping, and bars & restaurants. Schools are open, supermarkets are open, lots of shops really (e.g. DIY is considered essential), public services are all open and the rules on going outside for ‘exercise’ are (in my experience) very laxly enforced. I’ve a young kid and parks and playgrounds are effectively open as normal.
Seems like all that was needed after lockdown 1 was to avoid indoor contact with anyone to the greatest extent possible, plus mask wearing and ventilation when it happened. I don’t know what would have happened if the government had just said that over and over, along with maintaining the financial aid to businesses / people affected (which they’ve effectively done anyway). Probably people would have got laxer and laxer anyway, but it seems so fucking simple it was probably worth a go.
3 Likes
I understand this sentiment but honestly where are all you Americans planning on going? A destabilized USA is going to destabilize the whole global economy and certainly the West. I could see an ambitious 23 year old saying F this and moving to an emerging markets growth economy but if you’re a 45 year old with kids, speaks English only, highly trained in a specialized technical field, how can you escape the collapse of the West?
4 Likes
Maybe so but it would be very on brand for my marriage for my wife to get Covid but for me to suffer all the harshest consequences 
3 Likes
About 20k dead already since Election Day, and that’s probably an undercount. The peak 7dma for deaths was a little over 2200 and this looks like we’re going to shoot past 3k per day sometime in early December. And yet when I went to the convenience store yesterday, about half the people inside didn’t have a mask on. This is despite Iowa even putting in an admittedly weak mask mandate this week. The entire Midwest is so fucked. Even the states trying to do things right are going to get overrun by the insanity from other Midwest states.
The theory is that person A gets a low dose in public. Becomes infected and starts shedding. Passes on a high dose to their partner through sustained close contact.
Have seen no data for Covid but I believe there is historical evidence for other diseases.
Think of it as dose*time.
If I’m shedding 1,000/h and we are together for 10 hours then your dose is 10,000.
If someone out in public is shedding 10,000 l/h and you spend 15 minutes together the your dose is 2,500.
1 Like
The 7dma death curve has started up the same slope over the past couple of days that the case curve began 3-4 weeks ago. And the case curve is still pretty damn steep itself:
Prick Scott, c’mon down!
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1329792997559574530
13 Likes
This is interesting - really the first wave death graph is pretty useless from a predictive standpoint, but since then the deaths and cases graphs have tracked pretty closely with each other. So in 3-4 weeks we should be averaging around 2500-3k deaths, and likely rising as I don’t see our case numbers dropping any time soon.
1 Like
Lol all these douchenozzles “I’ve been quarantining and now I tested positive” how stupid do they think we are?
1 Like
The committee will not get weary…
Not weary of nominating total pieces of shit like Rick Scott!
1 Like
8 Likes
Pretty much. The slope of these graphs with a 4 week lag look pretty similar. The real problem is we have a bare minimum of 4 weeks of the death graph going straight up like the case graph did. That’s only if the peak cases is today. The death peak should happen about 3-4 weeks after the case peak. That is what we saw in the summer wave.
1 Like
Closer to 4K. The 28 day offset cfr is very close to 2% so far into fall. Also seeing anecdotal reports that nursing home cases on rises as fast or faster than the community. If that holds the cfr will go up. Also the cfr will climb as the % positive goes up.
1 Like
I’m really worried that we will see the case rise slow as we approach 250k but the % positive nationally try and bust over 10%.
In tales from the front line my wife is working today at the hospital she has worked at for years after a few weeks at the travel contract job. They have 62 Covids currently admitted for 40 ICU beds(obviously not all covids need icu bed). Her last shift two weeks ago was 48 which at the time was a high. It’s not really surprising and anecdotal evidence but the trendline seems to be really bad no matter what you look at.
2 Likes
My concern is similar. We will be maxing out testing capacity across the board which will artificially lower the reported cases and we will see governors who made the hard choice to close restaurants after 10pm will pat themselves on the back and hang a mission accomplished banner.
