Not been following the covid news so closely lately. Apparently it’s bad and people are still stupid.
https://twitter.com/JamesGleick/status/1329531829544755208?s=19
5 Likes
The committee is tired but there is a no waiting first ballot nominee that just went across the ESPN crawl.
https://twitter.com/mikeabccolumbia/status/1329518729798033411?s=21
1 Like
Does she mention who got it first? If it was Maddow - this lends a credence to the idea that the second person in the household gets it a lot worse.
Shit that’s not good. If I get pozzed it’s gonna be from my roommate because I don’t go near anyone else.
Look I’m not any kind of expert here, but this sounds like absolute nonsense to me.
1 Like
She says Susan tested positive, and Rachel has subsequently tested negative. Unless I missed some other statement, I don’t think Rachel herself has ever had a positive test, she just went into quarantine as soon as Susan got her results.
Me neither and this is just a wag in what could lead to that, but a first person could be getting it from a much more casual contact and a smaller viral load than someone who gets it from someone they live with. On average.
Update from Steven Millman. It’s worse.
November 19th COVID Mini-Update:
Very bad news unfortunately. It’s beginning to look like my upward adjustment to the model that predicts mortality last week may have been wildly inadequate assuming current trends are maintained. I’ll revise the model with the updated information this weekend if it holds.
Also, if case rates don’t start to decline in the next seven days, I will also need to push out the peak. If Thanksgiving is a national super-spreader event it’ll be much worse than that.
Current model predicts about 70,000 more Americans will die in the next six weeks to the end of 2020, but these new data suggest that number could be 20,000 to 50,000 too low.
PLEASE wear your mask. PLEASE don’t travel this week. PLEASE celebrate Thanksgiving with just the folks you already live with. For the love of God, PLEASE.
But for them to catch a big viral load you would have to be shedding a lot of virus and…
idk, it could be a real thing but also it just seems like people are seeing patterns out of incomplete evidence.
That’s one of those Poe’s Law type things where I can’t tell if it’s a joke or not. Like even if you saw it shared by a deplorable, seems like a solid chance it originated as a troll. The government DID pass laws to prevent people smoking indoors around other people, in a ton of places.
Yeah, as usual UPers were way ahead on ventilation. It’s pretty crazy that the vast majority of transmissions are occurring in a specific set of circumstances: unmasked prolonged exposure in a poorly ventilated space. And yet a week from today we’re going to have like a million gatherings that fit this description!
The theory is that first person gets a small dose from the store or wherever, so their infection is relatively mild. But then they blast the person in the home with a maskless mega dose accumulating over days. Why would that be nonsense?
Would you rather catch covid from someone you’re around for an hour, or living with over 3 days? Which dose do you think is going to be larger on average?
But you’re also blasting yourself with these megadoses,right? I just don’t get it. Like, if two people are cohabitating a space with big viral loads, they should both catch it. The virus doesn’t know who caught it first.
1 Like
You already have covid and presumably your body is already gearing up its immune system while you’re shedding. Meanwhile your housemate is getting blasted completely flat-footed.
You catch covid on Monday from a trip to Target (as my friend supposedly did) even though you were masked. By Wed-Fri you’re asympomatically shedding all over your roommate (as my friend did). A few days later your roommate gets sick and says he saw his dead relatives one night (as my friend’s roommate did).
There have been a lot of studies that suggest initial dose matters to eventual sickness. It doesn’t mean that 3 days with someone with a milder sickness w/o wearing a mask won’t result in a bigger dose for the person getting blasted.
By your logic if you get it from your roommate - you’ll always get the same dose or less - no matter what you do. I don’t think it works like that.
I could be wrong. We’re all just going on working theories here. But I absolutely do not want to be the second person in the house, nor a long car ride - like I was terrified my mom was going to be with my aunt - just blasting her from the back seat.
I mean that woman at choir practice infected almost everyone there. That’s a mega dose. She should have been dead within days if she was also giving herself such a giant dose. Assuming dose matters - which sure seems likely.
1 Like
Would like to see CFR broken down by age and where the virus was contracted. Household, restaurant, office, unknown, etc.
If the “initial viral load = worse” theory is true you would expect to see higher cfr for intra household spread. Not sure this data exists. Will look around this weekend.
1 Like
Yeah that would be a good way to test it. Also if you can find out if someone got it from a relative. That’s way more likely to be maskless prolonged contact.
But if initial dose matters there’s just no way household isn’t much worse. Take it to the extreme - someone has a mild case and has just tested positive - you spend 3 days basically hotboxing them but w/o smoke. You really think you’re only going to get the same initial dose they got? That’s impossible.
If your body’s immune system is gearing up, that means it’s literally eating up the COVID in your body and reducing the viral load you expel to other people. If you’re shedding a lot of virus, that suggests you aren’t gearing up your immune system. I could be totally wrong about all of this, as usual.
1 Like
This is the key. Initial dose vs immune response. If you’re able to start producing antibodies before it gets to a critical mass, your chances are better than someone hit with a bigger initial dose that gets out in front of their antibodies.
At least, that’s the theory.
1 Like