Two weeks is Nov 30. Didn’t realize it could be coming this soon for HCW.
Yeah I hear you but it would pretty much shock me if WCI was just throwing this info around unfounded. But then again, I’ve been shocked so frequently the past decade I’m not sure why anything should shock me any more.
Ah, ok. Well yeah then I guess it makes sense to just quarantine. Better the app give out false positives than the alternative, though.
It seems like at this point Pfizer and Moderna have proven very high levels of efficacy, which supports each other’s data somewhat given they use similar technology. Both have had minimal side effects so far, so it seems quite reasonable for HCW to be taking them ASAP.
So I hope/assume Pfizer and Moderna were in the seven vaccines Bill Gates was preparing factories for? I keep Googling but can’t find it. I’m not sure if their estimates on how much they can produce include assistance from the Gates Foundation or not.
This is purely anecdotal, but I know a guy who is well tapped into two Bitcoin billionaires, and they told him a couple of weeks ago the vaccine rollouts would start in health care situations by the end of the year.
I took this with many grains of salt and so should you.
efficacy is impressive but outstanding question is how long does immunity last. probably ok if it becomes a seasonal shot, but if it requires multiple shots a year, cost is quickly going up and compliance is quickly going down.
I don’t think cost should be a big concern. Even Moderna, which is under the most pressure to maximize profits, is only charging like $50. That’s nearly in line with the cost of flu shots.
Compliance, on the other hand, is a concern. Just give everyone a discount if they take the flu and covid vaccines at once, and offer free refills of iced tea at the pharmacy or something. Apparently those are to die for.
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Are you in an apartment complex? Maybe its pinging a neighbor on the other side of a wall
I don’t think that’s wise, but if that’s what the experts are suggesting… Do you have a source on this?
The reason I don’t think it’s wise is that part of the reason we need to vaccinate medical workers is so that they not only avoid dying, but avoid missing 2+ weeks of work and putting that much more strain on our healthcare systems. Also it has to help with the burnout many of them are facing from the stress, so anything we can do to keep them able to continue doing the heroic work they’re doing is extremely important.
Hi Bob
Im doing daily increase, not weekly
Formula in excel is =EXP(LN(x/x0)/(t-t0))
x/x0=ratio of increase
t-t0=number of days between data points.
For the last two time periods it works out to about 4.2% for cases in your data above. I do sloped lines so I get a bit different answer (better characterizes trends).
You know you have it correct for a week if you do 1.042^7* last week’s cases and that equals the weekly increase. 107139*(1.042^7)=142896 same as 142,179 with some rounding error.
Two weeks to 1 month ago deaths were increase at 1.1% per day.
Last week 2.1%
This week 2.4%
And should trend up until it reaches the case rate, maybe faster when the case detection (testing) becomes limiting.
I’m frankly going to be shocked if anyone but the military and other national security folks get the first wave of vaccines. Pretty sure the military got first dibs on the swine flu vaccine.
Inslee is a tyrant shutting down WA state. OFB was working!
This is from a bar/restaurant in my community:
Military is about 1.2M. Doctors are about 1M, nurses around 3 million. That includes non-ER docs and nurses. So covering the military and frontline covid health professionals should be no problem with the first 20 million doses available.
Should be approximately 10M people over 80 after that. So we should be able to do military, doctors, nurses and a good chunk of the elderly population in the first round.
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FYI minimal side effects might be a little much. Lots of fevers and body aches reported with this vaccine
My family is busy planning large Thanksgiving and Christmas get togethers. I just told them we are not attending. I would tell them they shouldn’t do it but they won’t listen anyway.
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Maybe say that along with no holidays, you also are informing them in advance that you won’t attend any funerals.
Yeah, LOL that would do nothing but piss them off.
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Yeah but in clinical terms those count as minimal don’t they? In terms of anti-vaxxers whining, they count as significant I guess.
no hard definition that i’m aware of for that
20m doses only equals 10m actual vaccinated people right? Assuming Moderna is also a 2 dose sequence?
Also is that 20m doses worldwide or specifically for the US?