I mean, we know shutdowns take about two weeks to impact the curve, right? And we know we’ve been doubling in just over two weeks, right?
We did 182K cases Friday with minimal new mitigation. So the above conclusions lead us to 360K+ cases around Thanksgiving weekend.
We know 2% CFR with a 28 day lag has held up. That’s 7,200 daily deaths around Christmas.
It appears at this point our best case solution of we did a broad national lockdown tomorrow would be cases peaking around Thanksgiving at 360K and dropping slowly from there, with daily deaths peaking at about 7,200 around Christmas and dropping slowly from there.
The only thing I think can prevent us from hitting those numbers is testing capacity and underreporting.
Does anyone disagree on any of that?
From there it’s a question of how long before we have widespread mitigation measures in place and how much Thanksgiving contributes to the growth.
Keep in mind a lot of the new measures will be unenforced and half-assed.
And regarding the holidays, like a third of the country admittedly plans to have gatherings with over 10 people indoors and no masks.
I mean fuck, do the math on that, we could pozz a million people on Thanksgiving alone.
30% of 330M = 99M.
If we are currently at a 5x multiplier on cases, 24% of nationwide gatherings of 15 people will have a pozz present. If we are catching 100% of cases it’s still 5.4%.
Let’s say it’s miraculously only 5.4%. That’s about 5.3M people indoors, unmasked, for hours around a positive case on Thanksgiving… Sharing a dinner table and passing food around.
Even if only 20% of then catch it that’s still well over 1M Thanksgiving pozzes.
If R0 > 1 right after Thanksgiving as these people become contagious, we are well and truly fucked.
Please @Danspartan tell me I’ve made an egregious miscalculation.
