Jesus Christ I just realized what that projects to in terms of baked in mortality by the end of January at 2% CFR. And with hospital overruns it’ll likely be worse. Fuck.
32K deaths per day. That’s almost 11 9/11s a day.
With hospital overruns and no mitigation, we could see 50K deaths per day by the end of January.
Of course, most won’t be counted due to lack of testing. We’ll find out later.
I miss the Big East Tourney so much. That whole week was always magical around MSG. I lived in NYC the last year Cuse was in it, and I made it to a couple of the games. My Dad split the cost of my ticket to SU/Georgetown for me (so I only had to spend like 3 times my budget lol) and I’ll be eternally grateful I got to see the end of that rivalry in its proper form. I was always a purist and old fashioned and more into that rivalry than Cuse/UConn.
I got so excited when CJ Fair posterized Otto Porter in OT that I yelled so loud for so long I almost fainted. I had to bend over for a second to get some blood back to my head. I was in the lower level at that end of the court and just went completely batshit crazy.
To set the stage here for those who don’t know the rivalry, SU and Georgetown played in the final game at Manley Field House in Syracuse back in the day, in 1980. Cuse was #2 in the country and had won 57 in a row and Georgetown came back from a huge deficit to shock SU. Their coach, John Thompson Jr, famously said “Manley Field House is officially closed.”
I wasn’t born yet but I still hate him for it. In 2013, our final year in the conference, Georgetown swept us. I wanted to get them and beat them in the Big East Tournament, and I wanted it bad.
We got them, I spent way too much on tickets, and we had a big lead and blew it. Gtown made two free throws with :07 left to force OT.
We led by four, they cut it back to two. We couldn’t put them away. Hatred flowed through my veins, the fear of losing all three meetings to the fucking Hoyas permeated through my body. Not. Like. This. Not again. We end this rivalry, not them.
My favorite player had the ball.
OHHHHHHHHHHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOHHHHH YESSSSSSSSSSSSS COME ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
The TV broadcast doesn’t do the energy in the Garden justice. The noise and buzz from that dunk lasted for a while.
Or maybe it felt that way cause I was so dizzy.
We won 58-55.
The next day I ordered my “This rivalry is officially closed!” t-shirt. It’s still in a box somewhere with the tag on it. In fact, I should frame it up with the ticket stub.
Damn, I miss the Big East.
Really want to do a first March madness weekend in Vegas. Could do this year, but lol that’s not going to happen
I certainly hope that governors respond and that people see what’s going on in their communities.
I hope hope hope. I think the 3% case will match better what will happen which is plenty bad enough. The 5% was just to match the current exponential clusterfuck and see what the math says. 5% a day through the end of the year is going to be like NYC. A real measurable fraction of the over 70 population of the country is going to die. Then Trump and Mitch can crow about saving social security.
It’s pretty bad and getting worse, but you really think 30k-50k deaths per day is on the table? I’m not really feeling that one.
If we hit 1.6M cases a day like that 5% growth model, it’s just math.
Damn fine writing
Let’s hope we get shutdowns, 3% is the baseline instead of 5%, and it’s not as bad. My concern is even if it’s 3%, your model also didn’t have surges for Thanksgiving and Christmas, or adjust for an increase in IFR due to overrun hospitals.
So 3% daily growth with some mitigation for stretches/regions but a couple super spreader events and an increase in IFR is still awful.
We also may have just had a couple super spreaders on 11/3 and 11/7, which would be just about to rear their ugly heads.
I get that 2% CFR and 5% steady growth leads to that math, but you don’t really think that will HAPPEN though, right?
Shit is pretty bad in LA. Curfews on the table this week.
This kind of surge is going to ruin people. Doctors, and presumably nurses, are going to quit.
This is congruent with my experiences.
I mean… I thought we were going to have 200K daily cases by Thanksgiving, 400K by mid December, and like 1M in early January if we didn’t mitigate.
We’re on a worse trajectory, should hit 200K this week, haven’t done much by way of shutdowns, and shutdowns take a couple weeks to impact the curve.
It seems like one more doubling is basically baked in now - that’s likely ~400K cases/day by early December. That bakes in at least 8K deaths/day by the end of the year. Testing capacity likely won’t pick all of this up, but isn’t this just the math at this point @Danspartan? Isn’t it basically unavoidable to hit those numbers?
So the big question is can we do enough to mitigate now or are we going to bake in another doubling after that? That’s the big question @amead and my guess is that some mitigation is likely in the next couple weeks, but not enough to do much other than plateau at a disgusting peak, and people won’t stay home for Thanksgiving - which will be another surge.
Ultimately I think we’re going to exceed our ability to test and treat COVID before the end of the year, and we’ll need the data scientists to crunch the numbers on excess death.
This is making me think I really need a next gen console for the upcoming hard lockdown.
Any suggestions other than trolling ebay and whatever websites?
I need to finish ordering the stuff for my golf simulator tomorrow. It might be what gets me through this winter.
golf is another thing i’ve been thinking about getting into. I can do it year round where i live. Would get me outside…
I suck though. Probably would hit a 50-60 per 9 if I were to go back out. Best I’ve been was around a 45 per 9. The thing I loved about golfing was hanging out with my dad. Going for a walk, having a few drinks, and just hanging out was the best. Going out and just playing by myself would be weird.
I just got a switch a month ago or so. I’ve been pretty liberal in downloading games anticipating the next few months.
Shooting 90 makes you pretty decent for the regular folks you see on public courses. If you can break 100 legit you can comfortably play with most regular folks without feeling terrible, so if you can do that without much effort you probably have a decent knack for it.
Would not be weird. You’re practicing. I bowl by myself. Its practice yo.
I got one of those. My wife just finished a 100% completion of botw… she’s kinda insane. We have an xbox that doesn’t really work anymore. Would probably end up playing fallout new vegas again if I got a new one lol. Maybe some rdr2. Never played witcher 3. Just need something to turn off my brain.