Until January 20th every thread is the insanity thread.
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Gonna be longer than that unless she’s primaried. The district is as reliably Republican as AOC’s district is for the Democrats.
Prolly belongs in the mental health or sober/drunk thread but since it’s going on here, today was particularly tough with COVID decisions. Not the actual decision as we knew what we have to do just the whole experience of it.
We have a large extended family and we let them all know today we won’t be attending thanksgiving or hosting Christmas. My gram who’s late 80s and pretty much the only opinion that matters to me was perfectly fine with not having either big get together. So that put me at some ease but still the sadness of the situation sucks.
For thanksgiving we decided we’ll just order takeout to support one of the local places that will be open. I rarely drink anymore but the wifey suggested finding a good bottle of whiskey to ease the burn. I didn’t object.
For Christmas Day at our house it’s usually hectic, loud, and now magical with all the little ones around. We normally have 25-35 people, which is way way too tight with every couch/folding chair/kitchen counter space serving as a dinner table. I’m sure it breaks some fire marshal code in normal times. We’re not perfect (see deplorable thread) but wouldn’t have it any other way. It would certainly be a super spreader event if someone was pozzed.
I haven’t been perfect throughout the pandemic, but it’s really just sadness that it’s come to this. Things could have been different. I won’t risk getting my gram sick even though at 87 she might not have many Christmas days left. We’ll be doing a Xmas zoom.
Hope everyone makes it through okay both mentally and physically.
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They look about 14 years old. It feels like these cosplay militia types are all potential school shooters.
judge dredd ?
Depends strongly on which side of the family we celebrate with. On my wife’s family side, their Thanksgivings are like 50 people in a run down building without flush toilets in the middle of nowhere in Texas. About half of them want to do it again this year, obv. (but not my wife’s folks). Christmases are much smaller, just her folks and her sister’s family.
In terms of shitty covid choices. Mrs rugby is considering trying to go back to the Philippines to visit. Her aunt has terminal cancer.
This would involve a two week quarantine in manila. Plus a two week quarantine on the way back to Aus. Flights are expensive, and quarantine also isn’t cheap.
There is no good option.
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Yeah I’d sign for her just never rising above that office and holding it for like 10-15 years. She has serious potential. I don’t like it one bit.
Outbreak in my state unfortunately. No community transmission here for 7 months but it made the jump out of a quarantine hotel and we now have 17 cases who have been wandering around out in the community. Hard to keep the thing in its box.
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It looks like he’s using 7 day offset instead of 28 days like you are. That would explain why a period of exponential growth would result in a declining cfr on his model. I think 28 days is probably a much more accurate indicator, but I am not a professional statistician.
Well if its Philippines and Australia just rent some boats, meet up on the water. The cruise time should correspond with the quarantine time. Especially if you go all dugouts and row.
Oh yeah, if you have unlimited time and money. So yeah, thats rough. I’d def say to not go if possible. Hopefully with vaccine(s) on the horizon people can be talked into waiting if possible. But completely understand. If I didnt do my driving trip and saw my Dad, my kids, and my grandsons this summer I’d be in a real bad way by now. Best wishes either way.
I’m really worried that my Dad is going to get together with his girlfriends extended family for Thanksgiving. They are planning to fly to Arizona in early December and not do a family xmas.
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Why not both?
Here are two graphs that give 0, 7, 14, 21, and 28 day offsets. Split into two graphs cause 1 was too busy. I also did just since mid June to avoid the really high stuff early on.
I feel good with the choice to use 28 days. I used 3% once things settled down in spring and 2% in my model since summer. My predicted deaths have been fairly close so it seems to work.
For sure - 7 day makes no sense. Has to be between 21 and 28 days. Also broken down by state since they’re all on different curves.
The risk with that is the Australian navy mistaking them for illegal immigrants and sinking them or sending them to our lovely offshore Gauntanemo-esque refugee jails.
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The cop is the one in the red coat
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One of them worked in one of the hotels.
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Michigan Gov live on tv announcing another shutdown
Pleading with ■■■■■ to not gather with family for thanksgiving.
So in the doom and gloom model is 5% per day growth starting Nov 1 (matches the actual) and continues through the end of the year. 2% 28 day cfr. Note if the growth continues through the end of the year, deaths will go up another roughly 3x from Dec 31 to Jan 20.
I’m trying to limit my time doing this, I just do state cfr very infrequently, but for the model just use a national average.
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I didn’t know the Foot Clan let women in!
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