I’m Specifically doing 7 day deaths over 7 day positives with a 28 day offset.
I’ve lowered than number to 2% but held it constant since late summer.
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I was doing something similar but trying to take positivity % into account. It predicted about double the deaths we actually got in the high positivity summer states - TX/FL/AZ. Unless they’re lying about deaths, but probably not that much.
But if basic 2% CFR+28 has been holding steady since summer, then yeah we’re in really deep shit in a couple of weeks.
I think this will go up. The biggest surge aren’t in areas with dense hospital capacity.
I don’t know about anyone else’s family, but at least in mine a typical Christmas is like 5-10x the super-spreader potential over Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is usually one event - 4-5 hours together. Christmas has people in town, multiple gatherings, mixings with in-laws, longer gatherings.
I just can’t even imagine if Thanksgiving turns into a huge super-spreader event which really starts to multiply heading into Christmas. And it seems like that’s exactly what’s going to happen in a lot of places.
We’re going to have makeshift field hospitals and a lot of people being denied entry. But one thing I predict they won’t do is issue a blanket policy based on age like Italy did. They’ll just say you aren’t sick enough - based on an opaque constantly shifting scale - as has already happened all over the place.
Wow Boris might be pozzed again. Is in isolation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1328077100016865282
Minor grunch: a Thanksgiving with 10+ people sounds like a lot, but it is not hard to accomplish. I don’t have a large extended family. Our normal Thanksgiving dinner when I was a kid, though, was my household (4), my aunt and uncle’s household (5), and 1-3 grandparents. That’s two normal-sized households of parents and kids plus grandparents hitting double-digits without a problem.
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Update from Olympia, WA -
Reports are that toilet paper is gone.
We stocked up last month because, you know, we’re smart and we’re UPers.
WA state just did another lockdown. I couldn’t find a single page that lists everything, but this shows it I think:
https://medium.com/wagovernor/inslee-announces-statewide-restrictions-for-four-weeks-c0b7da87d34e
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Is he using an offset. For example for me Oct 29 the 7 day death average is divided by the Oct 1 7 day new cases positive average.
I think his 2% hump in the 2nd wave is when the deaths caught up to the summer plateau. So right now cases are climbing faster so the near term cfr goes down.
I think the offset is needed to take into account the reality of cycle length plus it gets the response to be pretty flat over time. When I get to laptop I will share.
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indoor gatherings with people outside the household will be prohibited unless they quarantine for the fourteen days (14) prior to the social gathering or quarantine for the seven (7) days prior to the gathering, and receive a negative COVID-19 test result no more than 48-hours prior to the gathering. Outdoor gatherings are limited to no more than five people.
Inslee just canceled Thanksgiving!!!
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That’s a cop? Looks more like a poorly done batman cosplay.
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Holy fuck we have to deal with this for at least two years
So yeah waiting on things before committing to any plan after conferring with family. Gonna see what Thanksgiving does to the numbers. I mean they’re already going up. Have to imagine that it might get bad enough to justify not going back.
I also have to find out what I need to get back into the CR. I’ll probably need to show my passport + some proof of residency to prove that I live in the country. Getting a temporary residence permit could be touch-and-go timing wise but it will guarantee me entry into the country no questions asked.
Like everything else during a pandemic, everything is uncertain and subject to change.
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Dammit that was meant for the insanity thread. No idea how it wound up here.
Florida back over 10k.
That’s some impressive cosplay work. Legs look a bit cheap though. Looks like some shitty foam strapped to her legs.