First time I heard that.
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COVID Hypothetical:
Two households (adults only, no kids) hard lock down for 14 days, no leaving the house with the exception of driving the grocery store where you pop the trunk and they load your bags in. Monitor for any symptoms. Household B drives to Household A with nothing but 1 gloved/masked gas stop and stays there for a couple weeks. No outside trips or anything aside from above-mentioned grocery pick-ups.
There can’t really be anything wrong with that, right?
Seems totally fine.
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I’m starting to get so shook that up seems like down these days, lol.
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My mom (gone now) grew up in Auburn, I’ve been there a bunch of times.
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SD 53 Covid deaths today.
Couldn’t find the data presented exactly how I wanted to see it, so I took a crack this morning.
A few graphs with notes.
Top graph is a lagged CFR calculated as (weekly deaths / positive cases 4 weeks prior). The first plotted point of 13.5% is for 4/19.
The lagged CFR had been trending down until the end of August and has seen a gradual rise since then. The 1.7% for 11/8 week will increase once we get the 11/14 deaths data point.
The second graph shows positive test rate vs. average daily tests/week. Again, 11/8 week is understated since it’s missing a day.
We’re sitting at a 9.6% national positive test rate on around 1.2m tests/day so far this week. At the beginning of September, we were at 4.5% pos test rate on 800k tests/day. So, total testing is up about 50% since Sept and despite all that, our pos test rate has more than doubled. Not good.
The top graph is my attempt to show Actual Cases (extrapolated cases) vs. Observed positive cases. To extrapolate cases, I take the weekly observed death totals and divide by 0.5% (assumed IFR), then lag that value 4 weeks. No surprise here, we barely captured any cases early on and have been doing better lately (but still missing a ton).
The second graph is “case capture rate” vs. positive test rate. “Case Capture Rate” is just the Observed Cases / Extrapolated cases. So, based off the assumptions for the extrapolated cases, we are capturing roughly 30% of actual cases on Oct 11th. This has been trending down since mid-July. This should continue to fall as positive test % rises. Unfortunately, that means we would see an increase to CFR as well.
Basically – I wanted to see if 2% was a realistic estimate for CFR still, and yes, it is for now.|
edit: fixed an axis.
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You know what’s worse than being alone on Xmas
Killing grandma because you can’t handle one holiday season alone
If I was still single I would absolutely not leave the house for this or anything.
I know it’s a tough time but that’s what the situation calls for right now.
Traveling with multiple passports is standard for people that have them. I’m not clear what SUB means by “Irish passport to arrive”, but the law in pretty much every country is if you are a citizen you need to show that passport when you enter. Nothing else really matters.
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An hour after the other family arrives you’ll find out that they weren’t really quarantining for the past two weeks.
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My daughter flew in from DC yesterday for a 3 day visit. She wore a mask and face shield for the 2.5 hours she was in the terminal and then the plane, and I met her at the airport.
We just had a mini-Thanksgiving meal and are midway through the Queen’s Gambit. Since I hadn’t seen her for close to a year, we both felt OK with this small, increased risk.
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I mean I am not surprised. But mother of god we are so fucking dumb
40%
Big shock
40% actually seems positive to me? I would have expected it to be much higher.
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Two weeks ago, Czech Republic had a positive test rate hanging around 30-35%. Now it’s less than 25%.
Reproduction rate was 1 last week. Now it’s 0.7.
And they say lockdowns don’t work. Won’t be surprised if the government decides to go OFS at the end of November or early December.
I mean they shouldn’t but they’re already sending primary school kids back November 18th. I imagine my students will be back later if things keep improving.
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It just dawned on me: Thanksgiving, Christmas and NYE parties will all be on Trump. He’ll do nothing of course. But at least Biden won’t be in a position to do anything. So he won’t be hated for whatever he does or doesn’t do, then blamed for everything that happens.
Biden’s first test? Superbowl parties. Probably the most reliable large gathering in the US w/random people far outside your family group and close bubble family group. Ugh.
Kind of. We will still see some of the worst effects of that mass pozzing after inauguration. And I’m sure the derpers will find some way to put all of it (even the deaths before) on Biden. They have already done this plenty of times with other stats.
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