I had a friend call me this morning to get advice on hospitals from my wife. His dad is 70, has severe comorbidities and now has Covid. He has severe symptoms. A bad cough, fever and trouble breathing. He was essentially told at the hospital last night that he wasn’t sick enough and sent him home.
It seems like we are already at the overrun/rationing care phase.
Don’t worry deplorables are already all over being told to not gather en masse for holidays = communism
Got this from a relative who just posts fake news memes and blasts off articles and chain letter emails all day.
The message:
Oh no! What could it be about?!
Just to give you the opposite side of this, my wife and I have two new nieces born since March that we’ve never met in person and likely still won’t before the end of the year. I have friends I haven’t seen in person since before this started. We were supposed to get together in December and that is likely canceled.
I get the desire to want to do this completely. The real question is what do you think when you hear about other people saying fuck it and still planning all of the family holiday get togethers?
Yep, although it might be easier to think of those as widespread super spreader events.
Prepare for an onslaught of stories about people being told they aren’t sick enough, only to take a sudden turn for the worse and die at home. This is what the early stages of hospital overrun look like in America, I think.
With it the death count will surge dramatically
I know two people in my FB feed who gave gotten married in the last couple months. I spotted one mask in photos they posted. One couple already flew across the country for their honeymoon. The other (definite Trumpers, but not obnoxious about it, and at least had an outdoor wedding) are leaving today for Hawaii.
Waaf
I keep on thinking of things in terms of expected number of deaths to arise from a given activity or gathering.
A typical deplorable 15-20 person thanksgiving meal has to be in the… 0.05-0.1 expected deaths per gathering range, right?
…which might not sound astronomical to non-poker players. But if you think of it in terms of playing Russian roulette with a 20 chamber gun just so your entire family can gather, it’s extreme and insanely irresponsible and selfish to be like “yeah load up the gun let’s do this thing!”
Nieces are different from mother and sisters.
I have relatives that I haven’t seen in over a decade but they aren’t my immediate family.
Gonna suck to be indoors for most of it but it’s what I got.
Yes and also the mortality rate.
A random group of 15 people in my county has a 15-27% chance of having one person pozzed, call it 21%.
Indoors, no distancing, no masks, passing plates and bowls of food around… I don’t know if we have studies on the likelihood of infecting people, but I’d think the expected number of infections has to be around 10 when there’s one pozz.
So an average of 2.1 expected infections, apply a mortality rate to that and you’re looking at .021 to maybe .042 deaths.
But that’s a county with a low infection rate, relatively speaking. I picked a random county in Wisconsin and it goes to a 62-87% chance a gathering of 15 people has a pozz. Call it 75% and you’re looking at 7.5 expected infections and .075 to .15 deaths. That’s all at a 1-2% IFR.
Yeah we’re going to hear some horror stories about three weeks after Thanksgiving of family gatherings of 25 where like 22 get pozzed and like 12 die.
FWIW I know it sucks but I think you should skip the holidays this year. Plan a summer 2021 trip home instead.
I sincerely appreciate your concern but I’m not spending Christmas alone in my flat 4,000 miles. away from family. Zero percent chance.
This thing is already fucking me up mentally and it wasn’t like I was a model of ideal mental health to begin with.
Should be noted that I’m obviously not going to some giant Christmas gathering or something stupid like that.
Europe has already reversed their trend. They opened up too much, and that combined with seasonal effects contributed to the spike. They responded like responsible adults and locked the fuck down again. We’re collectively deciding that a half milly dead ain’t no thang.
Soon it’ll be a year since I’ll have seen my father - I’m in CA and he’s in NC. He’s 85. Seeing each other this year hasn’t even come up. There’s no way I would have him travel, and if I went to see him I’d feel the need to quarantine. I miss him, and my kids not seeing him really sucks, but getting together and having him die because of it would be much, much, worse.
Guy at my work has covid and has been on a ventilator for the past three weeks. Sounds like the outlook looks poor. They’re planning on pulling him off the ventilator today or tomorrow with the expectation he will die when they do so. Not great.
Half a million dead would be a good outcome with our present trajectory imo.
You should
And you know you should
It’s up to you if you want to be like the rednecks that can’t eat at chili’s and risk death for it.
Sorry, Keeed. It is just heartbreaking how few people care about this.
Well it’s an improvement. In PA a few months back, they kept showing up and didn’t tell Dems.
