Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a second national lockdown for England as the UK passed one million Covid-19 cases.
Non-essential shops and hospitality will have to close for four weeks on Thursday, he said.
But unlike the restrictions in spring, schools, colleges and universities will be allowed to stay open.
Right I understand this is an issue, that’s not the situation. If my parents and I do a mutual quarantine for 14 days, we follow it, and we trust each other, I still fail to see the point of the first test. The test after 14 days is to make sure you didn’t get pozzed before Day 1 of quarantine and get an asymptomatic or slow to present case that has you contagious.
He is saying if he locks down at home for 2 weeks solid with 0 external exposure then he only needs 1 test at the end of 14 days.
1 Like
Right, I’m also saying if I’m seeing somebody on 11/26, a test on 11/12 is pretty useless regardless.
Like Sanjay said test on Day 1 of quarantine, Day 14, then on Day 15 you should still stay distanced and wear masks indoors. I don’t understand it. Like, I guess the logic could be testing isn’t fully accurate so take precautions anyway… But the process itself of a full and proper two-week quarantine should eliminate damn near 100% of the risk.
But in his spot maybe he figures 90% of people are not going to do a proper quarantine, won’t do the two tests, etc, so he might as well just urge additional precautions and hope some people follow some of it.
Maybe it’s about risk of false negatives? (I don’t actually know what that risk is.)
30% for antibody test
How accurate are test results?
No test gives a 100% accurate result; tests need to be evaluated to determine their sensitivity and specificity, ideally by comparison with a “gold standard.” The lack of such a clear-cut “gold-standard” for covid-19 testing makes evaluation of test accuracy challenging.
A systematic review of the accuracy of covid-19 tests reported false negative rates of between 2% and 29% (equating to sensitivity of 71-98%), based on negative RT-PCR tests which were positive on repeat testing.6 The use of repeat RT-PCR testing as gold standard is likely to underestimate the true rate of false negatives, as not all patients in the included studies received repeat testing and those with clinically diagnosed covid-19 were not considered as actually having covid-19.6
Accuracy of viral RNA swabs in clinical practice varies depending on the site and quality of sampling. In one study, sensitivity of RT-PCR in 205 patients varied, at 93% for broncho-alveolar lavage, 72% for sputum, 63% for nasal swabs, and only 32% for throat swabs.7 Accuracy is also likely to vary depending on stage of disease8 and degree of viral multiplication or clearance.9 Higher sensitivities are reported depending on which gene targets are used, and whether multiple gene tests are used in combination.310 Reported accuracies are much higher for in vitro studies, which measure performance of primers using coronavirus cell culture in carefully controlled conditions.2
1 test only misses 30%…
One community based study of 4653 close contacts of patients with covid-19 tested RT-PCR throat swabs every 48 hours during a 14 day quarantine period. Of 129 eventually diagnosed with covid-19 by RT-PCR, 92 (71.3%) had a positive test on the first throat swab, equating to a sensitivity of 71% in this lower prevalence, community setting.12
Still way lower than Euro - OFS now, whilst you still can
Spreading South and West / East
Idaho testing obvously maxxed out
It is all of this, but especially bolded.
1 Like
Records are being shattered worldwide.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322578756511375364
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322582337293529089
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322600406766309379
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322603927465037824
Now lets all go door to door to get candy from strangers.
Obviously your reasoning is correct. Honestly, even one test is a bit melodramatic for having a group dinner. The parlay that needs to come in for the end-of-quarantine test to be worth something is:
P(you are infected with COVID before your quarantine starts) * P(the test is positive) * P(you are asymptomatic for the entire quarantine period) * P(your infection, despite never producing symptoms, stays contagious through the end of the quarantine period) * P(your relatives catch the disease from you)
That’s a lot of things! If you add a test before you start quarantine, it seems likely that you’re more likely to catch COVID getting the test than you are to prevent a future infection.
I know no one really cares, but I just had such a hard time turning down a new friends birthday / Halloween party tonight. If this was 2 months ago I probably would have went, but a day after cracking 100k again it just feels like the wrong thing to do. I’m just trying to do my part to not make this shit worse; which is an outlier mindset at this point.
20 Likes
I hear ya, and you’re not alone.
I pretty much just blew up a get together tomorrow with a couple friends I haven’t seen since the pandemic. We were gonna do something outdoors but now weather calls for pouring rain and cold temps. I didn’t like the idea of just going to a restaurant for a couple hours - not because I worry about myself but because it just doesn’t feel right as the pandemic is about to rage again - so the meetup sorta fizzled and got called off.
1 Like
We thankfully did our outdoor get together last week. Just us another couple and their kids. Nice breeze, low 70s and overcast. Perfect. I griddled cheesesteaks.
Gonna be tough on people this holiday season, especially in the climate that is going to kill outdoor dining.
So my wife just got a call. Her boss is confirmed pozzed today, and has been in her office a couple of times this week, the last time on Thursday. Both have always been masked for the duration of their roughly 5 minute discussions. My wife estimates they were sitting roughly 8 feet apart. My wife uses a cloth mask with carbon filters.
Anyone want to take a guess at how much of a risk my wife has of contracting it at the moment?
6 Likes
Pretty low imo but not a doctor.
Update on my aunt that had stroke and then covid. Initial pozz was like a month ago maybe? She got out of the rehab place where she was pozzed, went back home to NOLA where she lives with my other aunt who is a homeopathic doctor…other aunt is pozzed now too as a result in last 5 days. First aunt apparently got better for a while but now took turn for worst and is on supp oxygen, apparently can’t really move around without her oxygen. Not good…
9 Likes
Oh and heritagenothate was exposed per my mom but tested negative.
Asshole at the grocery store today maskless and coughing. I abandoned my cart, got the fuck out, and told the manager as I was leaving that he should probably take care of the guy trying to pozz the whole county.
8 Likes
I am not a doctor, I am not an epidemiologist, I am not an expert on this, etc, etc.
2-5%
1 Like
Good, clean living.
1 Like