I had the US at 110k by Sunday 1st… UK at 24k today :(
The point about prioritization is a good one, but it weighs on my side of the argument. The reality is that bars and indoor restaurant dining are being prioritized over primary education. It’s an abomination to have bars open and kindergartens closed, but that’s the policy choice that’s being made. You can maintain your studied neutrality about whether schools are more dangerous than bars until better data rolls in (from the closed schools somehow), but in the real world, that’s just providing cover for this madness.
If the policy was that everything was shut down so we could crush the curve and stamp out the virus, that would be very reasonable. If the policy was complete thunderdome and every man for himself, that seems irresponsible, but at least fair. What we have instead is rampant irresponsibility and uncontrolled, neverending community spread, except solely on the issue of public schools, when all of a sudden we’re fanatical devotees of the precautionary principle, and we just can’t be too safe. It’s bullshit.
What is happening over there is really bad as well. I have been to a bunch of place in the UK. Liverpool, Manchester, London, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Inverness, Outer Hebrides. Hopefully I get to come back over for a pint one day after this is all over.
I am not neutral.
Schools>>>bars and indoor dining
Especially schools that mask and SD well vs a bunch of irresponsible “adults”.
My point is that data should be neutral with the goal of producing the best understanding- best data collection, good maths, honest interpretation etc.
We have to make public policy with incomplete information. So yes we have to guess and extrapolate. But I have a clear opinion that making the convenient assumption that kids don’t get or don’t spread it (at least relative to adults) based on pretty shaky data is nothing but abject bias.
Public health gnerally dictates that you make the more conservative assumption in the absence of conclusive information.
Known deaths prioritized over hypothetical damage from at home learning.
Kids are little disease vectors as demonstrated for everything else.
Maybe we are saying somewhat the same things but there is some misunderstanding.
Take this one
What is the testing level?
Ya the whole schools argument seems to miss the fact literally no one wants schools closed. Those of us advocating for temporary school closures would open the schools long before bars, restaurants and sporting arenas.
It’s pretty fucking simple
Schools can be open if cases are low
Cases aren’t low so schools can’t be open
Get the cases low (masks, no dine-in, no bars/clubs, no events) and then schools can open
Shaky because it’s non-US data? Merkel seems to believe this shaky data then there’s the US which doesn’t have the resources to even capture the data.
Point is cases were low enough to open schools, yet bars and indoor dining are still open.
At this rate, you’ll catch up with ROW’s views on ‘schools last thing to close’ sometime round May 2021 by which time you’re a say 6yr old will have been outta school for 13 months
Germany’s partial lockdown will last until 30 November under terms agreed by Mrs Merkel and the 16 state premiers.
Bars and restaurants will close except for takeaway, but schools and kindergartens will remain open. Social contacts will be limited to two households with a maximum of 10 people and tourism will be halted.
Shakey because the epidemiology community thinks it’s bunk and I have yet to see any kind of explanation for why kids won’t spread this like they spread every other damn virus that passes through town.
is this guy qualified?
https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/translational-medicine/staff/malcolm-semple/
In addition to everything else, he seems qualified in children for 20+ yrs
An NIHR National Clinician Scientist Award in 2002 allowed Calum to develop his principal research interest in bronchiolitis and influenza, the two most important causes of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) in children and adults.
It’s not magic, apparently
OK. Has he published this theory in any journals?
Clinical characteristics of children and young people admitted to hospital with covid-19 in United Kingdom: prospective multicentre observational cohort study
expert reaction to paper and editorial looking at clinical characteristics and viral RNA detection in children with COVID-19 in South Korea
You get that “less risk of hospitalization” doesn’t mean they won’t still spread the disease, right? Like, asymptomatic people are spreading COVID like gangbusters.
He’s the one of many / most saying kids spread at 25-50% but he’s published in journals, so now it must be true (well, more believeable than a guy called trolly on the interwebs)
The death factor with Covid seems more related to age than how many kids live in your house - imagine that
I guess I was hoping you had a journal citation for this claim, because the paper you linked to doesn’t seem to say that afaict.
And it’s what is partially quoted when I unexpectedly started this fight way up thread.
This is cutting egde science, Trolly. Studies the richest country in the world just can’t be bothered with right now. You can wait for the journal recognition, from the guy that’s already journaled 200 other similar findings or we can go on the best we have. You know, like we’ve done since 8 months ago.
Are you gonna bring those nice graphs you used to post back any time soon (lmao)?
Dude you have some problems if you have that much ass hair.
I don’t know how the positive test rate is 35% over the last week in the CR while the reproductive rate has dropped to 1.1. How is there a constant increase in cases while a decrease in the reproductive rate?