https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1318619340892090368?s=21
Dan Mullen getting hit w Karma harrrrrrrrrrd
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Some good news. Have not looked into the source article. They controlled for age and comorbidity.
Headline is drop from 25% to about 8% chance on hospital admission.
They list factors as being able to recognize and disrupt complications such as cytokines storm and clotting issues.
The also note mask wearing may mean lower initial dose of virus.
One thing I don’t see addressed is if severity on admission is different. Seems like in an NYC based system there could be some concept that lesser severity are getting hospital beds vs during the overwhelmed phase where you had to be half dead already.
Still seems like a very good step in the right direction.
god bless trump for all his hard work developing improved treatments
https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1318656252835209217?s=21
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Some more interesting stuff. Fluid dynamics researchers are working on a new model of micro particle distribution and flow.
Masks and SD good but not foolproof. Possible distances longer than thought
Winters higher relative humidity bad
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-covid-distancing-masks.amp
Also on our favorite topic of ventilation.
- sufficient outdoor air ventilation should be applied as the main control (in principle, it does not matter whether outdoor air enters through a ventilation supply duct or a window, the amount of air is important);
- if the building does not have a functioning ventilation system, portable air cleaners with fine particle filters should be used to clean indoor air;
- in addition, viral contamination can be deactivated by applying short-wavelength ultraviolet (UV-C) light, which is used for example in certain hospital settings.
Ventilation systems with recirculation air that circulate a part of the extract air from a room into the supply air duct, leaving virus particles recirculating in the ventilation system, pose a particular challenge. It is necessary to increase outdoor air supply in such systems. If a system cannot be switched to fully outdoor air, filtration of extract air must be improved by installing more effective filters.
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And this one which says that aerosols May dominate in summer and bigger droplets in winter.
Reading between the lines this has me wondering if absent masking if doses will be higher in the winter (more deadly?).
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https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1318613911504117766?s=20
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1318612265726316545?s=20
first to herd immunity wins?
Looks like another 10,000+ w/w increase today. That puts our 7dma back over 60,000. The all time record was 69,000 back in July. At this rate we will be there at some point next week. (Worldometers)
I realize nothing is happening before November 3rd. After that do you think sane blue states will reimpose heavy restrictions or is this just a let it rip with masks permanently kind of situation?
Been all over that in this thread.
Worst has yet to come too. MoH says it’s expected to peak in mid-November
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Wow. from best in class to worst.
In Michigan the R voted the govs executive order unconstitutional
So she can’t even if she wants to.
Let me ask this another way. If we get to actual hospitals tipping over Italy-style and bring out your dead carts do we finally see this thing taken seriously? Or has that ship completely sailed at this point? Because I think absent much tougher restrictions the US is completely fucked heading into winter.
Hospital reports on the ground from my wife’s friends are almost every hospital in this region is at capacity. Her ICU hasn’t had an open bed that didn’t have someone waiting for it in months. I fully expect the hospitalization and death rates to rise as people’s immune systems are more susceptible in winter. That is before this most recent surge has really started to hit hospitals. If we leave schools open, continue congregating indoors at bars and restaurants, have indoor concerts, church and sporting events, have holidays as normal etc. someone give me a plausible hypothesis how we aren’t pushing hundreds of thousands of cases a day this winter?
Maybe that doesn’t happen. But it seems very possible to me based on what we know about the virus and what we are seeing happen in the northern US and Europe right now.
That study Dan posted a few posts ago that addresses point 1 is really good news.
I’d be soooo pissed if I had to stay inside all day with a roommate in one of those Michigan dorms
I have a feeling college students will defy this order.
It does not include athletics. They can play.
Some blue states (and even some red) will impose half-hearted restrictions, but folks have made up their own minds about what to do so things will pretty much keep keeping on as we moonshot.
Not enough people will die to move the needle on people caring and modifying their behaviors, aside from some small modifications that will help a tiny bit.
But in the end, we have decided not to have a strategy aside from every man woman and child for themselves since it is up to every individual to decide whether it is a Democrat hoax or a serious problem.
But, frankly it’s good that deaths and serious cases are declining despite the number of infected going nuclear. That is more than enough to get huge swaths of the populace ignoring it and continuing to live their lives as normal, and our gnashing of teeth might as well be happening on Mars to those folks.
Special care is required in winter because the relative humidity is higher than in summer.
wat
Winter is dry af.
Cold air has less capacity to hold moisture, so the relative humidity is higher.
It’s the reason there’s frozen dew on the grass each morning when the temps did below freezing.
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