It’s counter intuitive but the average indoor temperature is lower in winter plus:
In general, higher temperatures will require lower relative humidities to achieve thermal comfort compared to lower temperatures, with all other factors held constant. (wiki)
So comfortable 68 will have higher relative humidity in the winter vs comfortable 72 in summer.
It does not include athletics. They can play.
Thanks Trump!
I guess relative humidity is a little higher in winter, never knew that. But absolute humidity, the thing that matters to covid, is much lower. I think it’s something like air at 80 degrees holds 4x as much water vapor (absolute humidity) than air at 20 degrees. But I might be off.
Now imagine Denver where it’s already dry to begin with. In my imagination I picture covid just settling everywhere like snow and remaining viable for days.
Yeah, like I don’t need to parse the finer points of relative vs absolute humidity to know that winter air is significantly drier than summer air and that part of the linked article doesn’t seem to make any sense.
It’s true that it might feel a little wetter just due to higher relative humidity. But it’s hard to separate that from feeling a lot colder.
I think we will see a 100k case day in the next two weeks. With the seven day moving average at 75-80k. Just in time for Halloween!
This Thursday + Friday =>160k
Will COVID become endemic? Science says the answer is… . ¯_(ツ)_/¯
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/10/13/science.abe5960?rss=1
Haha. I came across this exact photo yesterday and gave it a shot myself!
First pumpkin I’ve carved in over 20 years.
Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming each set seven-day case records on Tuesday. Even New Jersey, once a model for bringing the virus under control, has seen cases double over the past month.
“It is a really dangerous time,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
“The majority of states are on the rise,” he said. And at the same time, “there are very few places where things are stable and going down.”
Current models about airborne infection are based on research done in the 1930s. There‘s a new paper that outlines how droplets travel further and the particles stay in the air longer than previously thought. This if confirmed will have to be taken into account for social distancing guide lines.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301932220305498
One of my friends was pozzed about 10 days ago. She was taking precautions like people here. She’s a teacher and got sick from a 25 year old coworker that wasn’t taking it seriously. Of course the 25 year is fine.
My friend has been diagnosed with a moderate case. She is having crazy ass symptoms. Had a low grade fever for a few days but it went away last week. Lost her taste and smell. Neither has come back. Here’s what’s weird. She can’t tell the difference between hot and cold food. She burned her throat drinking hot tea. She didn’t realize how hot it was until she swallowed it.
At the beginning, her nose hairs felt like they were on fire. Had a slight cough but that went away. She can “feel” the virus moving around her body. At one point, everything felt fine except for a really bad headache. Everything comes and goes in waves. 2 days ago, felt tingling in arms and fingers. Now it’s her legs. Joint pain also comes and goes.
She is furious. Has a 6 year old son that hasn’t tested positive. She was taking the virus seriously enough that she refused to allow her son go to school. He’s been learning online even though they offer in school option. She’s angry more than anything that this whole thing could have been avoided if we had leadership.
Dr has said it should last 3-4 weeks but she should be fine as long as she doesn’t have a fever or difficulty breathing.
I think they’ll do it in as targeted of a fashion as possible, or perhaps they’ll announce in advance the duration.
If I were governor I might announce a lockdown from 11/6 to 11/23 and say I’m doing it to save Thanksgiving. Lift it for Thanksgiving, wait for cases to pop back up and do it again for 10-14 days ending on 12/22 or so.
While letting people have free reign for the holidays is bad in a vacuum, I think we can assume most people won’t follow the rules then anyway, and rule compliance may be higher the preceding couple of weeks if you specify that it’s so you can let people enjoy the holidays.
Thanksgiving is the big test. If everyone mixes across generations while we are at a new peak then it’s going to really suck by Xmas and New Years.
If we wanted to shutdown in order to have turkey together it would have to be now. Like today. A full month.
I have no confidence any state is going to effectively do anything.
And while the lower ifr is promising, everything we posted in the past day has me really worried that we are going back to larger infection doses as we move indoors and that at least part of the lower ifr IS seasonal. No smoking gun yet, just the sinking feeling when something is “off” in my fermenter and a crash is coming.
The higher IFR in cold months is a very interesting theory imo. In addition to what you said it could also be higher because:
Less people die in the summer than winter in general so it is at least plausible that Covid will follow this pattern for one reason or another:
I have been taking some long walks around the Seattle burbs and mask use is definitely below 50%. It pisses me off and I’m waiting for the first mofo to make fun of my mask. I’m gonna go off.
This thread is more depressing than yesterday’s POTUS BOWL POLES
If I lived in NY vs. OK I would likely feel a lot better about it these days but things are awful here and trending more awful.
Oklahoma now has more per capita cases than New York. In fact the top 17 states in per capita cases all voted for Trump last time. I have a hard time seeing that as a coincidence.
Yeah indoor mask compliance is good in the places I visit (basically just court and grocery store/pharmacy), but usually my wife and I are the only people wearing masks when we go for walks.
I don’t know where people got the idea that masks aren’t necessary outside, but it seems everyone is under that assumption at this point.
