It could be even worse in that last time I checked France was reporting more COVID deaths than excess deaths.
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So, this is from downtown Los Angeles tonight. Congrats on that championship…
https://twitter.com/JustRyCole/status/1315489670348693504?s=19
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That would be better because then it’s not underplayed, making it easier for politicians to relax restrictions.
How much more in France than excess? If other forms are down, then it may still be accurate.
I’m pretty sure it is (to the extent that these things possibly can be), one thing France has been very good at is counting deaths. As you say, other forms of death are probably down so COVID is the cause for some people who would have died anyway.
Last stats the French official stats people put out is for Sep 21st. 2020 and 2019 were within 10 deaths of each other on Mar 14th, so seems a decent year to compare with. As of Sep 21st there were 28,406 ‘excess’ deaths in 2020 and France had reported 31,338 COVID deaths. So not many more, but about 10% more COVID deaths than excess deaths.
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The red states have been harder hit than blue states the last several months. Red states have always magically had a lower cfr than blue states which implies they are systematically undercounting somehow.
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For excess deaths they count the year in the last five that had the highest number of deaths and use that as a baseline. Due to social distancing and less driving excess deaths should be much lower than the baseline excluding covid.
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Duct tape is silver.
Totally agree. Probably a couple of threads ago I think we can up with
Lower in the time of Corona
Traffic
Other communicable diseases
Higher
Heart attacks etc in locales overloaded systems
And lower >>> higher so the 280k is the minimum.
My wife’s cousin posted pictures of the birthday party she through for her 10 year old. They decided to have it indoors at a skating rink. I shit you not, there were 30 10 years olds with their parents all without a mask. This is the same cousin who’s dad is about to be in the hospital for 3 weeks for a serious immune system surgery. Just unfathomable incompetentce. Oh did I mention that she is the head of the infectious disease center in the area. LOFUCKINGL. WAAF.
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I think this is true, but here in Ohio we’ve just hit the highest 7-day average case count EVER.
(COVID-related) Hospitalizations aren’t there yet, but they’re on a not-great trend.
And unlike a lot of GOP governors, DeWine was aggressive early on. So I think the odds of an Ohio shutdown are slightly higher than in other places, but still pretty unlikely. Maybe the biggest reason for that is that a lot of the increase is coming from more rural areas of the state, rather than the big population centers like Columbus, Cincinnati, or Cleveland. Hard to effectively impose lockdowns on those rural areas, especially when local law enforcement and politicians completely don’t give a shit. (Which they don’t)
I’ve had brain fog related to my epilepsy since I was a teenager.
I’d say that I’d like to not have it but I don’t know what not having it feels like. I assume it’s awesome to not have it.
At least I know that there’s one covid symptom that wont affect me.
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Who is “they”? In my experience projected deaths are always based on a rolling average, and usually with some assumptions for mortality improvement. But my comfort zone is actuarial mortality projections for costing pensions and insurance, maybe public health officials do something different.
Update: Every day since Saturday I have felt a little better. Only symptoms right now is feeling tired and muscle fatigue. When I walk around the yard my legs feel a little shaky.
Hopefully I keep improving and luck out.
Family has shown zero symptoms and we have not tested them.
Experts: Should my family get tested or should we just stick with the plan of not testing unless they show symptoms?
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I haven’t done a Oklahoma Covidiots post lately but I have a good one. Friday my wife gets a call from some of our friends here. Their daughter has Covid. The mom is freaking out. The parents of the daughter are divorced and the daughter has been staying with dad for a few days. Dad and the new wife have Covid now as well.
Saturday night we get a text message in our group chat with them. They went out to a literal club and the mom broke her leg/dislocated her ankle dancing out on the dance floor in high heels.
These are Biden voting non-science deniers. I just don’t get what is happening anymore to be honest. It’s depressing as fuck.
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I think it’s something like - well the club was open for business, it can’t be that unsafe right?
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Ya I think that is obviously part of it. I think it is also just quarantine fatigue. We all had a big group trip planed to Puerto Vallarta at the end of this month that was booked pre-pandemic. There were about 30 of us going. The last time I heard only 8 were still going. We obviously canceled months ago. I am wondering if getting her ankle Dak Prescott’ed (the pics she sent of her leg were just as bad) stops them from going or not.
Fuckin LA. Shit.
not an expert but I think if I was in their position a test would give me some peace of mind and at least near me its very easy and quick to get a free test
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Is the mom Dak Prescott?
ETA: Ponied by OP
I sincerely doubt that secondary schools will open here given that there are additional restrictions being discussed.
It’d be pretty insane to close school, have the situation get worse, and then open them again. I mean that’d be something worth going on strike about. However, most of my colleagues hate online teaching so much that they’d probably rather take the risk.
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