COVID-19: Chapter 6 - ThanksGRAVING

Glad you and your son got to have a nice day out on the lake, and nice work with the photo. Gotta keep those old man creds strong! ;)

Signed,
Old man who uses old fashioned smileys sometimes instead of emojis

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Kind of re-assuring I should imagine? GL with your famliy’s relocation! Hoping you settle in well.

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US writes of surface transfer months ago, not ROW

But the latest research from Australian agency CSIRO found the virus was “extremely robust,” surviving for 28 days on smooth surfaces such as glass found on mobile phone screens and both plastic and paper banknotes, when kept at 20C (68F), which is about room temperature.

In comparison, the flu virus can survive in the same circumstances for 17 days.

Sick brag - those girls are hot as hell.

Believing in silence is sexy, and caring about slowing the spread is beautiful.

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No doubt but I prefer encounters that I can remember afterwards

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1315346453703913475

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pastor of my parent’s church is pozzed
they had been doing in person services and sunday school classes with social distancing and (i think) masks
evidently not good enough

Convinced all my family to do an outdoors dinner so we setup the backyard and all brought our chairs, cups and plates. Only had to go inside for washroom.

Felt like a good compromise.

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Science is golden

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In summary, comparing death count records in the U.S. for 2020 and the past five years unambiguously show that mortality in 2020 from weeks one to 34 is higher than the annual mortality in each of the previous five years. From week seven onward, the weekly mortality in 2020 was constantly higher than the weekly mortality in previous years over the same time period. The analysis of excess death, as done here, is an important tool to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, considering there is no evidence indicating that other causes of death have suddenly become more frequent this year compared to previous years, it is highly likely that a large part of those excess deaths are due to COVID-19.

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Covid may not be over for quite some time. I will take your tongue lashing in stride and go on living my best life.

Good luck not dying!

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Ty, the same to you kind sir.

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These pictures have never left my feed. Even when my area was locked down, windowless bars and restaurants discreetly served locals and regulars. Beach houses were packed.

https://twitter.com/meenaharris/status/1315454741825036289

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With today’s new cases we are once again back over 50,000 cases/day 7dma (worldometers).

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We are so FUBAR. I have been trying to ready myself for whats coming this winter but its just really difficult. I keep telling myself that hopefully I’m wrong, but I just don’t think I am.

The narrative the most people, politicians, policy makers, Karen’s, are telling themselves was that shutting down the economy was the wrong thing to do. The problem with this logic is that its very difficult to measure what didn’t happen.

So when we go into fall and late winter and cases rise exponentially( this is the part I hope does not happen) shutdowns will not be considered until hospitals across the country are at complete capacity and people.are dying in parking garges. Survival rates have a direct corallation to the level of available care, and when the entire countries healthcare system is overrun the level of available care will be shockingly low.

And thats a very likely potential scenario in this country that may be only weeks away. I so hope I’m wrong about this. I think a big problem is that because testing was so scarce when the pandemic started that the level.of infection in the community is just a big unknown so we won’t know when we will be at the same tipping point this time around.

In the USA things are going to get much much worse before we decide to take action and the cost of our inaction will be measured in deaths. 10s of thousands of unnecassary deaths.

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280k at week 34 which is august 22 which was 176k deaths

280/176 = 59% higher than the count

So we are now WAY undercounting…in June we were 38% over and now it’s 59% by late august and who knows by now

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More importantly, good luck not infecting others.

He’s being selfish because he is risking other peoples’ lives in order to “live his best life”

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At this point I’d be shocked if there are any shutdowns before 11/4 anywhere that hasn’t overrun hospitals and overflow capacity.

At this point it’s too politicized and we’re too close to the election. Even in a blue state, a shutdown will max out the right wing turnout with no impact on Democratic turnout. Staying open may depress right wing turnout if it goes poorly and Democrats will still be highly motivated.

At this point it’s not about how the issue polls, it’s about how it impacts voting. Most people who want shutdowns will vote blue regardless.

Even in safely blue states, there will be tremendous pressure from downballot races in swing districts and from the national party. If New York or California or Massachusetts shut down, they’ll try to attach it to Biden and attack him on it.

I’m guessing we’re just starting to plateau the week of Thanksgiving, just in time to let it room with a holiday spike that we’ll see 7-10 days into December, and then we’ll repeat it for Christmas and New Years Eve.

Biden is likely to inherit an abject horror show.

And that ignores one of the worst aspects: Trump will still have tremendous power in the lame duck to withhold funding and force states to stay open and may do so out of spite, so we may not even get those temporary reprieves.

I haven’t looked at any models lately but just eye balling it, it seems like we’re looking at a minimum of 75K cases a day by 11/3, 100K by Thanksgiving, and we’ll be flirting with 200K by the end of the year.

Again that’s an eyeball estimate but it probably means 240K+ deaths by election day and 350K+ by the end of the year. We might be looking at a 9/11 a day in early January.

How do those numbers look in the context of no real shutdowns @Danspartan?

I’m currently rebuilding a three month stockpile of food, household supplies, and masks.

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