It’s camp 2 to an extent. At some point when even hospitals run out of testing capacity it shifts to camp 1. But of course hospitals being overrun likely increases CFR on its own even before that.
We haven’t blown past the capacity in the last four months, at least not at this scale. Maybe in specific locales.
I hope you’re right, but this seems optimistic. (Fuck this hellscape where 3K deaths a day is optimistic.)
Yes. Our fidelity in determining that will become a guess pretty soon as long as the positivity continues to climb.
I mean depending on where you look we hit between 2800-3200 deaths yesterday and hospitalizations are still going up. 3,000 is on the very low end of where I think we peak out at as far as a 7dma. Although you have to keep in mind our current 7dma isn’t even up to 1,700. It’s possible probably only if large amounts of people self lockdown. My guess would be closer to 4,000 but somewhere between 3,000-5,000 seems like a reasonable range.
Spider makes a good point in that there is a bias in the sample of people going to get tested (towards symptoms) and that as soon as testing becomes scarce, that bias will be even bigger as “contact” based testing without symptoms folks won’t bother to deal with the house.
Yeah, my co-worker has it, but I feel fine and if takes more than 10 minutes I’m not doing it
As for the net math, purely a guess. The growth terms seems pretty consistent so my lean is that the portion of undercounting and thus the cfr will go up, but hopefully a good deal cancelled out by the nun/spider theory. If the selection bias is really that strong, then it could go the other way but I’d be surprised if the cfr dropped more than a couple of tenths in that case.
I guess we will find out the hard way.
This is the video in that post
https://twitter.com/tarvariouswwmt/status/1334341498368897024?s=21
I’ve just started reading “The Testaments” which contains a more detailed description of the fall as well as life just across the border, one of the main characters is of course, a lawbro. I’m kinda convinced now that we’re witnessing the fall of the republic up close and we’re headed for bad stuff.
Like if 60% of the country doesn’t believe in the scientific consensus around the virus, basically they’ll just accept anything that happens going forward.
This, in a nutshell, is why we have to purge the olds from politics ASAP. These people had decades of pre-Mitch political experience which are now worse than worthless. They’re the modern day equivalent to British generals who bought their job fighting Napoleon, getting waffle crushed, and then making excuses about how he didn’t fight honorably. The old rules are finished and the old duopoly with it. The GOP has things exactly how they want them, which means they have absolutely no incentive to allow anything different to happen and their entire strategy reflects that. Nothing is going to get done ever again if Mitch has anything to say about it.
4% continued growth in cases at 28 day cfr is
1.5M/day cases and 10K/day deaths on Jan 20. That would bake in 30K deaths/day 28 days further out.
I’m not publishing the graph, it just can’t get that bad.
Fauci throwing some shade lol - how long can you stare at one set of results during a pandemic before making a decision? I suppose UK should have had a summit to delay matters :)
Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease expert, has said that the UK was not as rigorous as the US in its Covid-19 vaccine approval process.
“The UK did not do it as carefully,” he told Fox News. “If you go quickly and you do it superficially, people are not going to want to get vaccinated.”
Dr Fauci said the US approval of the vaccine would come “very soon”.
Tad harsh on the French and Belgians
The UK is getting a coronavirus vaccine first because it is a “much better country” than France, Belgium and the US, says the education secretary.
Also UK
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1334543848333332482
(from a BBC article)
In each case, the business trips must result in a deal which creates or preserves 50 jobs or leads to a £100,000 investment or order, according to the Department for Transport.
Will be interested to see how that will work… as if it will.
and to add … that emoji
lol
I’m in 23rd millionth place.
damn
you’re in line behind 270 million people across the United States.
My wife is literally at the front of the line. I am quite a bit further back, but am very much looking forward to them vaxxing my wife. Seriously she’s like 100% of my risk of contracting COVID. I don’t care if I have to live like this for another 12 months if they’ll just guarantee that my wife won’t bring it home from work.
Well its alright. I’m going to the end of the line.
Same. I’m wondering if any of the following will help me
-spouse of a health care worker
-high blood pressure/cholesterol
-I’ve worked throughout the pandemic maybe my law practice is essential?
I assume no and I will be waiting a long time.
