Well it kind of has been happening in those 30 years. The republicans have only won the popular vote once in that time and only because 9/11. So their edge has been shrinking a ton, and its only a matter of time before the scales completely tip over.
Like with Trump he won by the narrowest of margins and literally everything had to break just right and him cheating to win. Eventually even that stuff won’t be enough.
I don’t know what the data looked like in the past, but right now democrats have a significant edge of people under 65, and it becomes wild with people under 40. Even more wild people under 30.
Was that true in the past as well? Like I’m pretty sure the only age group Republicans are winning now is those over 65, and lots of them die every year. I think it was simplicitus that posted about how much demographics have changed just over the last 4 years and how bad that is for the Republican party.
Roughly 800K people over 65 will have died in MI, PA, and WI between the 2016 and 2020 elections. I saw a Facebook post this morning that said 4 million 17 year olds will turn 18 before the election (not sure when the picture of the sign was taken, and presumably this is a whole US statistic).
The counterpoint is obviously the Electoral College and the Senate. Unless those are modified significantly, the young people abandoning their burnt-out small towns will continue to shoot themselves in the foot, power-wise. You could imagine a reversal of the trend towards urbanization in response to COVID, but will it be enough to flip states like Wyoming, Idaho, etc.? I guess the southern states might be a better target – if Texas flips blue, then at least we will have Democratic presidents.
One thing that the Federal government could do to massively revitalize America is move tons of Federal government administration out of Washington and open new Federal government offices all over middle America. They definitely will not do this because they think that good technocrats only want to live in coastal liberal cities. It is very much a self fulfilling prophecy.
I feel like the House and EC could be fixed by redoing representation #s so it’s based on, say, the lowest population state getting one representative/elector and then calculating the other states as multiples of that. House would grow but should still be a workable number (as opposed to, say, if they’d let it continue growing at absolute rates with population, in which case it’d look like the damn senate chamber from the Star Wars prequels by now).
The Senate will continue to be broken for the foreseeable future though. Other than cutting tiny population states down to one senator, which nobody will go for.
And it’s only getting worse. There will be another major event, sooner than later, that divides us even more. Is civil war the answer if they don’t get their election outcome?
Well it’s game over for the US if half the stuff in this article proves true. I mean short term to possibly no immunity, symptoms/outcomes worse with each infection, possibility of effective vaccines questionable, etc.
I was holding out hope that even if immunity was short lived, reinfections would be less severe.
This virus is like the Trump of viruses. You can’t believe the news could possibly get worse, but they both have lots of beers to hand out.
Not a big surprise to me, I’ve been saying a lot of this stuff was a likelihood. Humanity may have to attempt eradication, although I’m not sure if that’s even possible.
Maybe mandatory vaccinations every 2 months for everyone until it’s gone? But of course trying to get that done in the third world is a nightmare.
The scary thing is we don’t know how past coronaviruses became endemic. Did they kill everyone who couldn’t fend them off, naturally selecting immunity for us over generations? Or did we quickly build up immunity?
Looks like we may be about to find out. And past presidents may have been able to keep this in China, where they may have had the will for eradication. If there’s no lasting immunity and no vaccines, the death toll on this could wind up making the Spanish Flu look like a walk in the park, and it could almost all be on Trump.
If there is no lasting immunity and no vaccines it’s not really all going to be on Trump imo. We as humans are not going to be able to function and thrive long term under the conditions required to eradicate it, if it’s even possible to eradicate it.
