Even if some plausible plan is concocted, it seems that there will be a lot of rules written into the plans about physical distancing etc. that will have a compliance rate of approximately 0%.
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If people can’t get tested, and there are no ICU beds, then their death might be counted.
Currently on day 8 of waiting for test results. Completely worthless now.
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Grunching: Disney started their AP previews today and… basically nobody showed up. Every ride was walk-on which is fucking unheard of, unheard of, at Disney World. Entire sections of Animal Kingdom had no people in them whatsoever. At the same time they’ve now heavily discounted AP’s and tickets to try to get more people to come. So again show’s the absolute fucking stupidity of the “OPEN FOR BUSINESS NOW’ crowd because high fucking pandemic levels means most people aren’t stupid enough to go to theme parks, or movies, or restaurants. Anyway, 120 people died in Florida today, a new record.
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Getting really close to NY at the height of the pandemic numbers. I think NY capped out at around 10k cases and a 40 percent positivity rate.
Tarrant County occupied vents jumped from ~200 to ~300 in last two days. Inbound shit storm detected, seek immediate shelter.
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What is AP?
I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say that we’re now certain that warm weather doesn’t do too much to slow this thing down.
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Could still be that things would be even worse if it were fall/winter.
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Here’s the problem with schools. You either shutdown entirely and pay people to stay home, or you have to reopen schools. There’s no middle ground because there are plenty of people who will literally fucking starve if they don’t go to work and can’t afford any other kind of day care. Obviously the answer is we should be shut down and paying everyone who can’t work from home expanded Unemplotment or UBI, but we’re clearly never doing that I guess.
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That’s about the sum of it.
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So I spar a bit with my best friend who now lives in Nevada on this stuff. He’s the smartest human I personally know, but he doesn’t really think COVID-19 is a huge deal and his family hasn’t been impacted much and they are pretty much living a normal life compared to my almost full lock-down in a not-so-heavily impacted portion of NY.
Anyhow, it’s all good faith back and forth, he isn’t a denier/hoaxer, and occasionally he brings up some stuff that I don’t have a good answer for.
Today, he trotted out some CDC numbers around children and COVID-19, and it definitely appears that the seasonal flu at least currently appears “deadlier”. That the number of school-age children that have died from COVID-19 is essentially a rounding error. Obviously this was in the context of deciding to open schools next month.
My main retorts were:
- We shut down schools when this started blowing up, so that may have mitigated the danger somewhat and resulted in fewer cases/deaths among kids.
- We also close schools when there are particularly bad flu outbreaks.
- Killing a bunch of their teachers isn’t particularly great for kids.
- Maybe we find out there is some long-term negative effect on those who fully recover (not sure there is data that supports this currently, but it’s probably unknowable atm)
But yet, it does appear true that kids aren’t getting it in huge numbers, and when they do, they almost never die. And, it may be true that when they do get it, they die at a lower rate than when they contract the seasonal flu.
Anyone come across any other data that suggests a less rosy picture for young children? We both agree that a dead kid probably counts for 1000 dead adults, and if kids start dying all bets are off vis a vis re-opening anything.
Annual passholder.
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+1
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You nailed it i think already on the retorts
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Annual Passholders. The parks open to the general public on Saturday. Today and tomorrow are AP previews. Word is they are not anywhere close to what they planned their capacity to be for the day. Some huge amount of the people showing up were just ebay flippers going to Splash Mountain to buy up all the merch and flip it on ebay since the ride is being rethemed.
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No, I think he’s about right that this isn’t a big deal for kids. The problem is the adults in their lives: staff, teachers, parents, grandparents, etc.
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and there is still some small possibility that it has bad effects on kids, that combined with the other issues with parents/teachers etc
The summer camps already having to be shutdown because of widespread outbreak + we really don’t know the long term effects would be what I would argue.
Kid’s don’t die much. That is pretty indisputable. But there are lots of other impacts that people like him don’t factor in. Like what happens when inevitably a student infects and kills their teacher? The impacts of that on a child seem severe. That has a 100% probability of happening this fall.
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