COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

Yes. Please keep sending avocados though.

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The GOP spent years telling its base dirty foreigners carrying disease were invading their country and now they are the dirty foreigners carrying disease.

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Probably posted already. Schools have to open!

Why do men feel the need to fist pump or even do elbow rubs in the midst of a pandemic? I don"t understand the bromance touching…

https://twitter.com/lapublichealth/status/1280960945460613120

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Question for the Numbers people on here: I understand that RT of 1.5 means that if there are 10 infected people they will pass it to 15 over the course of the virus. My question is, do we know what that multiplication time is, essentially, when it comes to this virus? If the incubation time in five days, is that what it goes off of? Or if The virus lifetime is on average three weeks, is that the timeline? Basically what I’m saying is, if there is an RT of 1.5, how long should we expect to wait until we see 10 cases create 15 new ones

Already got results, negative :+1:

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1280976280314249216?s=20

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Looks like 9,000 new cases and 119 new deaths in Florida today.

People have been shaking hands for 100s (1000s?) of years. Moving away from that to a fist bump which transfers pretty much neglible material from person to person is a good thing.

I know I’ve taken a more lax approach than most here when I do fist bump my golf partner who I know is taking this situation seriously after a round. Certaintly not doing that with a random person though.

The essential problem with an elbow bump is that you still have to be physically close to the other guy. We need to do long-distance bows like they do in Asian countries.

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The Oakland A’s were way ahead of their time.

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They’ll make a public statement like “this is rough, wear a mask” then they’ll vote straight party line to stop anything from closing down or to require mask use in public.

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I know it’s been posted elsewhere, but holy shit. Pence actually hyped the stockpile of ventilators in his answer about the government’s plan to help schools prepare to open back up. OH OK, LET’S GO THEN.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1281055996849401856

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Arizona 4k/75. It looks like not only will be have a good shot to exceed 60k again but 1k+ deaths is a possibility today.

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We treat it here that the you will see that R0 at the median or mean (?) infection cycle which is listed as 5.6 days.

I don’t know if any of us here know exactly how they arrive at 5.6 days. I believe the assumed range is 2-14 days but that is probably for 2 sigma or 95% of cases or similar.

The hard part with a fairly long average cycle and a really long contagious range and inconsistent time for detection (asymptomatic cases plus the results delays) there are big offsets that makes any calculation fraught with uncertainty.

Clearly our R0 aproximation (me and cuse) throws out some higher numbers than some of the published numbers. I have yet to see a simple calculation that doesn’t rely on a ton of assumptions as described above to derive R0.

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In Israel on May 7th malls and outdoor markets reopened and restaurants on May 27 with masks and social distancing.

Just looking at this info and how Israel got to almost no new cases, it suggests that countries like Canada and Vietnam could not really reopen just because they have few cases without expecting that to change very quickly.

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(sorry for the continued ruining of Everett True - I just looked at a bunch after it came up yesterday and remembered this one)

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Yeah that’s pretty bad. He hates everyone basically.

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