COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

Where are the seat belt protests?

Fuck, my county San Bernardino obviously doing complete shit. Though technically I think I’m apart of riverside county, I’m on the border. Yucaipa is a shit show though. I see high mask compliance but I’m sure the maga idiots are having covid parties.

At this point doing shitty is just achieving herd immunity quicker, silver lining. Given how poorly this has gone, we might as well have gone buckwild for herd immunity as a country in March.

Given how this past year has gone, I fully anticipate getting to herd immunity about a month before effective vaccines are widely available. The nut low outcome from the nut low administration.

I just found out a friend’s great aunt died of covid a few days ago - lived in a podunk town in South Dakota where they didn’t think covid would be an issue.

Jesus Christ, the Czech Republic continues to get worse.

Normally, there’s a huge decline in the number of cases on weekends since they run less than half the usual number of tests. However, there’s 884 cases by 6:30 pm on a weekend. The highest weekend total in a full day before this was 507. So either they ran a lot more tests on a weekend or we are so very, very fucked. I mean like America fucked.

Sucks too because I was planning on starting at a BJJ dojo and then things get crazy worse. I wanted to go on more dates but again that’s falling apart.

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fyp

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Actually now that I think about it more, here’s how it’ll play out: Once Trump wins a 2nd term and four years of immunity from everything, he officially won’t GAF about anything but grifting. He’ll ban import of the good vaccines that are developed without US help, and insist on a home-grown one that costs like $500/dose out-of-pocket and also aggressively try to sell it to the rest of the world despite their version being safer and better.

Outside of that he’ll probably stop even bothering to acknowledge the pandemic. The population is now useless to him now that they can’t vote for him again.

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https://twitter.com/SteveMartinToGo/status/1304800512609525760

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Who says they can’t? If he loses, he’s running in 2024 if he’s still alive.

https://twitter.com/MikeGorgone/status/1304802521626574850

GOAT

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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1304859530686279686

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FYP

We’re definitely setting up the perfect storm. The other test I’m running that I asked you about won’t be ready for primetime until probably about two Wednesdays from now due to how effed this past week was on reporting and testing. I can’t get a real 14 day measurement if half the period isn’t accurate or a total joke. My guess is reporting is finally going to start going up in a realistic manner starting this past Thursday (ha).

A number of other colleges and schools are planning on opening in early to mid-October. So, the country’s about to be as close full utilization as possible within a month. Anyone who can get their jobs back will likely have gotten them back by then.

My suggestion to anyone reading this thread is if your state allows early voting, and you plan on voting in person (I am), go as early as possible. Do not go around election day, if at all possible. We will probably be at very close to peak pandemic infections out in public on election day and standing in long lines on that particular day I think will be extraordinarily risky, especially if you live in a college town or near a hot spot. If you can vote in person in the middle of October, that’s probably the last ‘safest’ time left. If you have things like dentist’s appointments you need to make, I’d also get them over with before the middle of October if you can.

What’s going on at the colleges is a huge canary in a coal mine and the results are happening very fast. Hopefully I’m wrong about where we’re headed, but I think the peak of the first wave is coming at us right around the end of October. We are now just ~25,000 active cases away from the peak active cases of July 26. The baseline that created that ultimate active cases number was 1,329,752 on June 1. The active cases on July 26 were 2,880,863. As of right now, the active cases are 2,855,567. I’ll leave it to the math geniuses to say how bad that difference in baseline is, but I’m fairly certain it’s really really bad. And we’re still opening like it’s all over…

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Santa Clara is down from the earlier measurement period. Alameda wasn’t in the top 50 previously and rose in new cases. It’s not a significant rise, but based on how California’s been tracking, I would have expected cases in the period to be between 650 and 800 without another contributing factor.

I looked for colleges in the county, but all of the major ones haven’t started yet. Something else is causing this outside of opening up businesses, but as I said, it’s unclear what it is. It looks like the type of rise that comes with some kind of soft school opening bump, but I have no idea what in person learning is for kids in that county or if maybe some community colleges are open for in person.

6 months to the day since my last true social outing (Jimmy Kimmell taping…I don’t count being forced to fly to OH) and we’ve gotten fucking nowhere.

I blame the internet. Damn you, Al Gore!

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Both counties have improved a ton since the first measurement period. They’re still in the top 50 because they had high caseloads that a lot of places can’t match due to population disparity. This is something I’m possibly going to track weekly for a bit even if I don’t write any numbers down. If both start moving up again, you’ll know other things are going on. If they don’t, then the cases are just retreating to whatever their smoldering baseline is.

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He never should have invented it!

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Family zoom last night. Feeling not good.

Both older sisters have been planning some limited social events. One was at a weekend away with 8 people in a house.

This is the UK.

Basically. They have been following the government advice. But the government is clearly under reacting and ineffective in a massive shit show.

Ugh.

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Yeah my Dad has been citing government guidelines as to why he feels safe indoors with 50+ people at his bowling league. No word on why he then feels safe taking his mask off like everyone else - the type of thing he mocked people for about a week ago, which I’m pretty sure his state still requires.

But I’m pretty much over it now, too. The weakest links get to set terms in a pandemic, because you need collective action to fight it off. They’ve won and thus doomed us to months more of this, which underlies any decision.