The govt basically wants at-risk people to isolate and everyone else to get out there to stimulate the economy - and if they get it they get it.
But the govt can’t come out and say that. So at-risk people assume it’s safe. FUBAR
If we go for herd immunity at 60% then we need over 2 more years of more positives per month than we have had confirmed so far in the past 6 months.
At 6.6M confirmed now
6.6x24 is 158M more
Need 201M total for 60%
Now we are actually at maybe 5x confirmed so at 33M but then need to be 2.5x more than that for the next year to get to herd.
Going for herd is insanity, especially as you may only get 5-12 months immunity before you can get it again.
I still think actual cases are more like 10x confirmed with all the testing suppression.
Yep. It’s the dumbest approach possible.
But it’ll happen faster than you think. It’s not linear, it’s exponential.
Didn’t we settle on 5x last time we did this?
If you mean the US government, aka the Trump Administration, they want everyone back out there ASAP and they’re using deception and coercion to make it happen.
This is, by the way, the standard way governments have historically handled pandemics. This was the first I’ve where science and medicine had advanced enough to consider a better approach. We opted for the “Fuck the poor,” approach anyway.
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This attitude is popping up in Canada, too. At least in the Toronto area. Things had simmered down in terms of new infections and people are starting to engage in more smaller gatherings, much like you describe.
Only $12M?
It would have done $200M if no pandemic
So 94% drop
Hey the UK and the Czech Republic have something in common wrt covid19!
It’s really disheartening. It does feel like society has said YOLO and the majority of people just can’t be bothered at this point.
I see things only getting looser, not tighter, from here, in terms of how people are going to actually act.
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Yup and that puts the writing on the wall and forces a lot of hands.
Yeah
At this point you may as well go play poker and make some money now since it’ll only be worse in a month or so and then bad for 5-6 months straight
A lot of people gonna be loosening up during this calm before the storm.
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No we didn’t settle on anything. I’ve seen plenty of antibody studies that suggest 10x or more (given not everyone produces antibodies) and none that suggest 5x.
Given our hatred of testing in this country, and the new CDC recommendation to not even test asymptomatic people, I don’t see that ratio improving from when those studies were done.
Also there’s some weird stuff that happens when penetration hits ~20% that sure look like some kind of modified herd immunity effect. Could be some have natural immunity. Could be just people isolating. Could be warm weather helping.
Places like Manaus really make you wonder. No one can give a good explanation for why their epidemic started dropping at ~20% penetration instead of just plowing through to 60% (or 80% with overshoot).
Whether or not truly asymptomatic (as opposed to pre-symptomatic) people can be major spreaders seems to be another big open question. Maybe the biggest.
The CA govt wants the same thing. The CO govt. They all want us out there.
IIRC those were from the first wave in the spring, when testing was worse than it is now.
It’s still better than it was in March.
Some likely have natural immunity. I don’t think there’s much to the 20% thing some on the right seem to be pushing in the name of OFB/OFS. It mostly coincides with stricter shutdown measures.
You’re still on that?
Other places have gone over 80% though.
Their hands are being forced by a lack of federal UE, and other federal aid. State budgets are going to be a mess. The federal government gets to dictate here, and the marching orders are clear.
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Dude this happens every time. All this has been discussed ad nauseum. You skim. ;)
Yes I’m still on warm weather since it affects initial viral load. The virus has been shown in the laboratory to like cold, dry air - as do most viruses. That’s how they’re stored.
No place has gone near 80% infected. They’d be at herd immunity and could have a huge party.
All the most recent numbers have had the percentage of cases being identified by tests around 20-25%. It hasn’t been 10x+ for a while.
What happens every time is you push one of more of a rotating group of incredibly optimistic theories.
It seems like the main impact of warm weather has mostly to do with people being outside instead of inside, as evidenced by outbreaks happening in extremely hot places as long as they have a/c.
I’m too lazy to look it up but there were regions or cities abroad that blew past 80%, they’ve been posted about. Many places are above this magical 20% threshold and still cranking out cases.
I’m sure when the OFS and holiday waves in the US take us way above 20% in some places you’ll be pushing some other optimistic take.
So far none of them have panned out.
Optimistic is in like when I said it didn’t seem like the “sky’s the limit” back in June because most people are isolating - and it turned into a big kerfuffle here? And now most accept that we’ve got this weird isolated modified herd immunity thing going on (or did before back to school).
I try to be realistic. That doesn’t mean just always pick the most pessimistic outlook and run with that. I spend a lot of time poring over this stuff.
Maybe small towns, but threre are no regions that blew past 80%.
When you hear me say things aren’t as bad because of warm weather - just imagine I’m saying “things can always get worse in winter”. I never seem to get challenged when I use that phrasing.
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