COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

[anon38180840]

@WichitaDM

I think I asked you this months ago and the answer was no but have you played the apps yet? They aren’t as soft as they were in April anymore but they are still light years softer than the other online poker options (bovada/global/acr). I am not very good and play micros like 15 hours a week for fun and have pretty consistently still been making $1000/mo. or so playing 40plo8 and .20/point ofc. I can not beat any of the normal sites at any level.

I played one once then the guy organizing it stopped. But I’ve heard lots of things about shadiness on them, and didn’t Bros just shut down and screw a bunch of people or something?

@Dutch101

I know I am late to the discussion but how much do you know about the other players? If they are all reasonably sensible people then I would probably go based on what you said so far. If these are people going out to large indoor gatherings then definitely no. This assumes everyone is wearing masks 100% of the time though and all proper masks.

The two guys who are like on track to literally be billionaires someday are sensible and I imagine they are mostly able to WFH/isolate and I highly doubt they’re going to large indoor gatherings. One reg is working from home and being safe. Another is mostly WFH, going in once every week or so. I know nothing about the other two.

@Jalfrezi

We have about a 1/6 chance of dying if we get it.

Where do you get 1/6? I thought it was way lower than that.

@Danspartan

Cuse I can’t imagine going and running bad.

Yeah this would suck, I could run bad for a year playing 8 hours a week. That said, in a game of this quality it would take some crazy shit for me to lose. Lifetime I win in about 60% of my sessions, in my private game it was 70%. This may have more variance though, so I’ll have to see. I can’t nit it up obviously.

@Danspartan

But in the interest of science I now would like @cuserounder to wear a cloth mask to his pokerz game.

It’s funny this came to today. Last night laying in bed I was thinking about all the things I can do to reduce my risk. Like my zinc lozenges that are basically a freeroll - unlikely to help, but can’t hurt. Then I thought of those scientists who made their own vaccine. Obviously not something I’d do lol…

But then I was thinking about my theory that we should try infecting ourselves with common cold coronaviruses for the crossover immunity boost. But since that’s not like something you can buy to inject, that’s a no go. Then I was like, wait a second, what if one tried to get tiny exposure to covid? Like 5 minutes in a grocery store maskless.

I’m not going to do it, but it’s an interesting idea. If we know it takes X viral load to be infected, is there an X-Y viral load that triggers an immune response?

This could also add to the theory that keeps percolating that herd immunity kicks in lower than expected - in reality it would be because people had learned/acquired community without being infected.

Of course I want to be clear that I’m not going to try this, and while it’s an interesting thought, obviously it cannot be proven and it’s basically just some smart people thinking out loud and taking a couple leaps.

@amead

I don’t want to speak for Cuse, but I feel pretty confident in saying that this activity would not have been entertained in the tiniest, slightest bit in April/May.

True, for sure.

@6ix

Try the apps. They’re so soft they’re fucking with my mental health, like, I feel I’m derealized in a quasi-dreamstate they’re so soft.

How’d you get in? Have you cashed out and gotten paid?

@CS04

+1 for the apps. They’re still really soft. I only play 1/2 NL and can make 5 figures on a good month with not much variance. And I don’t even think of myself as a really good player.

How’d you get in and have cashouts gone smoothly?

@CS04

PokerBros. Cash in / cash out through an affiliate by cashapp/zelle/venmo. I at least know who my affiliate is, which is helpful. Cash out takes a few days.

Didn’t Bros just shutdown over some scandal?

[WichitaDM]

Maybe some agent/room screwed some players. That did not happen with my clubs/agent. PokerBros has tons of different clubs and they aren’t related to each other. With everything happening in the poker world having some of the operators of these clubs or the agents blow up or scam is not remotely surprising. I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing it if I didn’t trust my agent.

[Inso0]

Never say never.

[microbet]

@Inso0,

Please vote for Biden and then crow endlessly about how, being from a swing state, you have voted harder for Biden than most everyone here.

[mosdef]

No but his handmade Scott Walker 2024 sign is ready for action.

[Nicholasp27]

Then you aren’t voting Biden which means you are ok with Trump even if tired of having to defend him.

And it’s ludicrous to say our response wouldn’t be better under someone else. We have one of the worst responses in the world. He literally threw away the playbook on how to handle a pandemic. He downplayed it, he pushed to open up too soon, he threatened schools to reopen. He didn’t increase testing, supplies, etc.

Sure the Fox News mouth breathers wouldn’t have taken it as seriously, but the rest would have.

Leadership does matter.

[MrWookie]

It’s still an incredibly stupid take, and to think that any other president, Democrat or Republican, would do basically the same as Trump is, shall we say, deranged. Under a remotely competent president, Democrat or Republican, we would have had researchers on the ground in Wuhan at the immediate outset to start gathering samples and researching the disease. We would have already had a pandemic response team ready to go with an actual plan in place rather than waiting around to appoint a religious zealot and a real estate failson and a bunch of people who aren’t actual epidemiologists to be in charge. We would accept tests from the WHO in February if not late January when it was already clear that the CDC test was borked. We would not have tried to stop the University of Washington from its testing, which could have better caught the first outbreak that was caught. We would have had more testing in NYC to spot that outbreak sooner, lock down sooner, and save perhaps tens of thousands of lives. We would have ramped up PPE production in late January, when the president knew the virus was airborne and much more lethal than the flu. We would have had universal cloth mask recommendations by April, and a president who’d lead by example. We would have had organized distribution of ventilators and PPE from our federal stockpile and from industrial suppliers rather than forcing states to bid both against each other and against the federal government. The supplies procured by the federal government would have gone to desperate cities and states rather than shuttled away to wealthy cronies. And of course, we would have had an administration delivering useful, accurate information on a regular basis to governors, state health organizations, and to the American public rather than muzzling our top health experts and feeding the public wishcasting and outright lies on the situation.

Doing all that is not some sort of heroic or unprecedented pandemic response. That’s just basic stuff. It doesn’t require any stroke of genius or herculean feat. It’s just taking the plans that were already in place and following them. The failure to do that basic stuff is why college parties are so much riskier now. It’s why the economy is still fucked. It’s why South Korea has full baseball stadiums now while we’re killing off our teachers rather than admitting that our pandemic response has been such an utter failure that the disease is still rampant after so many long months.

I grant that we’re too big to really be New Zealand. We wouldn’t save everyone. We probably wouldn’t even be South Korea, as their smaller number of potential outbreak sites is an advantage. But we could have been like Canada. With similar per capita death numbers, we’d have over 100000 fewer dead people. Maybe we could be 100 South Koreas, where every state has 2 outbreaks that get managed well. That’s could be over 150000 lives saved compared to right now and an economy that’s almost totally unfucked.

That you see fit to blame college students rather than the president who failed at every step either through inaction or by deliberate sabotage of our response at the most critical point in the pandemic, its outset, is far more absurd and unhealthy than whatever caricature you have in your mind of liberals who, of the pandemic, are telling it like it is.

[Nicholasp27]

Also we could have given every American 2k/month for a year and people could have stayed home instead of risking their life for work. And it wouldn’t have cost more than we are spending on packages anyway

We’ve had over 250k deaths so far and it should be more like 50k. His response is the vast majority of that difference.

Also masks work and a different administration could have mandated them.

[nunnehi]

I talked to a friend of mine the other day in CA whose wife is a nurse in LA County. I asked him how it was going for her since near the peak he’d said they had a huge regimen for her to get back in the house safely and that she slept in a different room, etc.

My expectation was that he was going to say, ‘it’s going better, new treatments are making it better’ or something to that effect. Instead, he said it was pretty much the same as before but with the key difference being that people were just dying. He said it was starting to slow down again a little but knew it was about to pick up again. I wasn’t encouraged by any of his news.

For the other post, I’m working up some numbers and will get back to you with any further questions. Testing/cases is really off this week due to Labor Day weekend, so it’s skewing the data probably to the point that I won’t be able to do even a remotely accurate 14 day positive sum until 2 weeks from now…sigh.

As a point of reference for how stuff is going now, the usual low case reporting previously was Sun-Tue, with upticks beginning Wed each week. The peaks each week were Fri-Sat nearly 100 percent of the time. Now it looks like low reporting is starting to consistently happen Sun-Wed (deaths very low every Mon/Tue now and very high on Wed), with Thu numbers looking more similar to old Wed numbers and Fri and Sat numbers still usually following the old trend (with a handful of states that don’t report anything on Sat and/or Sat/Sun). In other words, for nearly 7 weeks we’ve been flying nearly completely blind at a worse level than the beginning of the pandemic in probably at least 30 states (a number of states are doing fine with reporting though I haven’t actually broken them out yet). I’m so not looking forward to October and will be voting in person as early as possible.

[MrWookie]

Like, does anyone here think that a first term president Mitt Romney, who pretty much just follows the pandemic response plan by the book and gives some regular, boring updates, does anything less than cruise to re-election to the tune of 40+ states?

[anon38180840]

@BestOf

[mosdef]

Of course he does. Look at the popularity boost every leader other than Trump got for just doing the fundamentals.

[superuberbob]

Crises are slam dunks for politicians. Trump probably could’ve become dictator if he played it right.

[TrueNorth32]

Trump completely panicked and thought that the economic downturn that would result from taking the necessary steps would doom his reelection and possibly land him in jail. No one else would have been in that position.

Our provincial premier here in Ontario (the brother of Rob Ford, crack-smoking mayor of Toronto) is right out of the Trump mold and was deeply unpopular before the pandemic hit. He’s probably going to get reelected now because he actually did a lot of things right at the outset and appeared to care.

[Nononocantsleep]

@TrueNorth32

Trump completely panicked and thought that the economic downturn that would result from taking the necessary steps would doom his reelection and possibly land him in jail. No one else would have been in that position.

Correct. Tens/hundreds of thousands of people are dead because our country is run by a narcissist. This is how things work when you elect people who literally do not care about you. Trump will burn the country to the ground if he thinks that is what it will take to keep him from dying in jail.

[nunnehi]

If there’s one thing Trump does it’s: everything wrong

[suzzer99]

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1304091803814178822

Idiots on chiefsplanet still parrot the completely made up strawman, “You all called Trump a racist when he did the China ban!” (which no one did, nor did it matter).

[Inso0]

Your Monday morning quarterbacking is just as laughable as the notion that Donald Trump personally stopped any of that from happening.

The boots on the ground within the relevant agencies do not answer to Donald Trump.

I’m glad you were able to get that rant off your chest, though. It must’ve been rather cathartic.

[Nicholasp27]

lol Monday Morning QB

These were all things we posted as logical steps to take here on UP back in January/February/March

It didn’t take hindsight

[nunnehi]

You should maybe read the news about how every public health related agency has been completely politicized during the pandemic to do what Trump wants.