I think the most optimistic thing I’ve seen here in months is cuse asking if it’s ok to go play in a live poker game. Indoors. With other humans.
Maybe we survive this after all?
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https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1303476569227239424
Our old friend has some more indecipherable argle bargle for you to guess at.
yay consistent messaging
That Sturgis thing probably doesn’t help the cause. Low infos might be a lot of weight on it. As long as it doesn’t get destroyed in the presss and pointed as “just another exaggeration”.
Was there an effect? Yes. 250k? Yeah no way to show that most likely.
What kind of glasses are you thinking? How does the tape work, just run it along the entire edge outside?
Next year my health insurance is going to be $500/mo alone. Rent is $2,100, if I were without income long term I could cut that down to probably $1100-1200 and extend an extra year or two. I could do the same with food costs to trim another $100 or so per month (eating as a vegetarian can add up).
Yeah this is how I felt up until a month ago, but now the long term situation here in USA#1 is not looking promising and my window to act before I’m in a bad financial support where I don’t have a choice could be narrower than I’d like to think.
Is it optimistic or pessimistic? On the one hand, masks seem to really work well. On the other, I don’t foresee this pandemic improving for a minimum of 7 months - and it’ll probably be way worse Nov-Feb. By the time we get to the other side of that, if I’m still struggling online, I’ll be knocked down a stake and making 75% less than before.
IMO my thought process leading here is more pessimistic about the outlook in USA#1. Best case is a big improvement by late March, worst case is 2+ years from now.
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Fuuuuuuuuucccckkkkkkk
AshLee DeMarinis was just 34 when she died Sunday after three weeks in the hospital
A third grade teacher died Monday in South Carolina, and two other educators died recently in Mississippi
In Oxford, Mississippi, 42-year-old Nacoma James taught at a middle school and helped coach high school football. He died Aug. 6
Another Mississippi teacher died Sunday. History teacher Tom Slade recently posted on Facebook about his battle with pneumonia caused by the coronavirus.
Slade was teaching in-person when the academic year started on Aug. 6, Principal Raina Holmes said, but began quarantining after he had contact with someone who was positive at a church meeting. His last day of teaching was Aug. 21.
In South Carolina, Demetria “Demi” Bannister, 28, died three days after being diagnosed with COVID-19, her school district said in a news release Wednesday. Bannister taught third grade in Columbia.
The district said Bannister was at Windsor Elementary School on Aug. 28 for a teacher work day, before classes resumed.
[Demi’s sister] Heissenbuttel is a nurse who works in a New York area hospital’s intensive care unit. Somehow, she managed to avoid the illness that her sister couldn’t.
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34, 42, 28.
only old people die from this though
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$200,000 can last you a lot more than 2.5 years.
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Maybe. But keep in mind my calculus as a self-employed American with pre-existing conditions is very different from anyone with single payer.
If Trump wins, I’m fucked on healthcare. RBG goes, ACA is ripped apart, my health insurance costs go up 4-5x due to pre-existing conditions. Like $400-500/mo to maybe $1600-2400/mo. When I was 12 years younger it was going to be ~$1200/mo. Add my age, inflation, and covid to the mix, who knows?
With CARES gone, there is no safety net for me.
My income dropped 20% right after isolating, while my hours ~doubled. Then it was down about 40% vs before. Now it’s down way more. Who knows how long that lasts?
Throw a healthcare cost increase on top and I could be well and truly fucked.
Then factor in that I just had a massive struggle to get someone to rent a home to me despite significant savings and plenty of income.
It has become crystal clear to me that my security in America is only as good as my income and net worth, and things in that regard will get way worse if Trump wins/holds power and/or as the pandemic continues.
Yeah I wouldn’t get in a car with anyone, masked or not. That’s probably safer then poker, but the enclosed space would still freak me out.
To start from ~scratch at 36 entry level in a new field in a place where money is all that matters to society?
I have to put some value on doing something I love vs something I have to do for money, and on retiring early and living on my own terms vs working a job I don’t like for the next 35 years. That’s worth some risk.
GL lol
Ugh, that’s a glass of cold water over the head for me right now.
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It’s possible that my “safe circle” breaking down is also making me say fuck it. My Dad is now bowling every other week. 50 people indoors, masks required unless eating or drinking. A week before hand I told him that people won’t follow the mask rule and he said nonsense. He mocked people dumb enough to go without masks.
They started yesterday, everybody including him took the masks off while sitting and wore them while bowling.
My friend who’s been very safe covers an NFL team and will have to be at games soon, likely inside a press box. His wife has to return to teaching in person 10/1. So now they aren’t able to be as safe.
Those were my safe people to see outdoors, distanced. Now that’s all out the window.
We’re the crazy ones, even if we’re right. We’re going to be forced back one way or another at one point or another, or completely isolated for years.
You’re in the UK or Ireland iirc, right? So a much better healthcare system and safety net?
It’s not about need, it’s about what I want and have a chance at. How big of a risk would you take to retire at 45 or 50 and live completely on your own terms?
Damn I don’t get 300 per hour for far riskier activities.
I also find that estimate… optimistic.
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What do you mean?
Well that’s great then. I don’t think I would be happy doing something I didn’t love, and I’m not sure what that would be in such a scenario.
I’d travel and do meaningful things if I retired early - volunteer for a good cause, maybe even get a job working for a good cause, maybe travel to volunteer in places where help is needed. I don’t think I’d get bored, but who knows. The grass is always greener.
I’m pretty confident in it. I’ve played with 4 of the 6 people quite a bit. One guy routinely makes large blind raises. I saw him fold to a 3b once.
Just kidding, someone cold 4b in between.
I didn’t mean the estimate to brag, though. Only because it’s an important part of the decision. I stopped posting about my hourly a while back because it’s ultimately -EV for me to put that out there.
I’m genuinely curious if you’d like to post it elsewhere or share via PM. If that was your polite way of saying it’s not my business, no worries and I’ll fuck right off lol…
Or maybe we all die.
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I think Ethical Skeptic is AI fucking around on Twitter.
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Yeah - ES doesn’t even need to do his obscure techno-babble thing to pick that study apart. But it seems to be his only move
As usual it’s up to ES’ followers to try to guess at the meaning.
The halt to the AstraZeneca vaccine trial is because a woman was diagnosed with transverse myelitis, a spinal inflammation of the nerves. The regulatory oversight body peeked under the double-blind and she had received the vaccine, not the placebo. Transverse myelitis is very rare, so this is likely to have been caused by the vaccine. The likely mechanism is immune-mediated tissue damage. Not an expert but I’d guess that this is not the end of the road for that candidate yet, but not great news for it.
Corona Extra 'eh?
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This may be the only time I ever give business advice bc I don’t know shit but in this case I’m confident it’s correct: @microbet stop giving away solar panels.
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