COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

[anon38180840]

@RiskyFlush

Remind me which state you are in? If it’s okay to ask.

Pennsylvania, near Philly. The Georgia Tech model says there’s like a 4-7% chance someone has it in a group of 10.

@Danspartan

Our 0 poz rate is in jeopardy. I do understand the temptation.

How risky do you think it is? I definitely want to get your opinion on this.

@RiskyFlush

I was just playing around with this guy again to answer cuse’s question.

https://www.microcovid.org/calculator

I input California, seven people, everyone wearing at least a cotton mask or bandana, but cuse is wearing equivalent to a surgical mask, session lasts four hours, interactions are similar to person-to-person at a grocery store.

Using this model and the GA Tech model, it looks like if I did this for 25 weeks for 8 hours each week, I’d have a 7.5% chance of getting COVID-19. Now, my mask is actually better than the one they described, so it’s probably a little lower than that.

So that means I’m taking in the neighborhood of a 3.5% chance of mid-term effects (say 3-6 months of heart/lung issues) and approximately a 1.5% mortality risk if I get it (I think for my age group it’s like 0.5%, I should be at approximately triple the risk due to comorbidities and being a male)… So that’s a 0.11% chance of dying, or about 1 in 900.

This is similar to the lifetime risk of dying as a motorcyclist, so I guess the question is would I ride a motorcycle daily for 25 weeks for $60,000.

@WichitaDM

So it’s different than let’s say eating at Chili’s. Prolonged contact for hours multiple times a week means it just comes down to one person getting it or not.

With the key difference being everyone eating doesn’t have a mask on. Like I feel safer with this, but I could be wrong. The masks may be offset by the duration of like 1 hour maskless vs. 8 hours masked.

@JohnnyTruant

I’d say no.

But, if you are gonna, get yourself a 3m p100 respirator mask like workers use. They are not all that expensive, they are in abundant supply, and they are more comfortable and effective than disposable n95 masks

I have one but I’m not sure it would meet with the approval of the group seeing as it looks almost like a gas mask.

@JohnnyTruant

I got some for my whole fam because of the smoke here as well, and we have all tested them for comfort. I made the kids try them while watching tv and they forgot they had them on once properly fitted.

Interesting, I’ve worn mine a few times and it was driving me nuts within 60-90 minutes and hurting the bridge of my noise and irritating my cheek pretty badly.

Something like this, right?

@microbet

Cuse,

I think I’d pass on poker for $300/hr and I have less money than you and I have been less careful about covid. Otoh I think I have more/better alternative income streams.

Interesting… I’m not so sure you have less money than me, but I could be wrong. My net worth is between 100K and 200K, so I’m assuming your home equity has to be worth more than that but obviously I don’t know your personal situation. The thing for me is if I don’t make any money the next 6 months, I’m back down to 2/5 when poker resumes and trying to grind my way out of the mouse wheel again…

But yeah you definitely have more/better alternative income streams and that’s a huge factor I’m considering right now. If I knew things would be okay in 3 months, I’d pass, but given that I think it’s unlikely I feel safe playing in a casino without a strict mask requirement in the next 7 months at least, this may be the safest/best chance I get. I’ve watched my online hourly decrease by 60-100% (my best guess adjusting for variance) over the last two months, and I don’t see any reason that’s going to move back in the other direction anytime soon.

[beetlejuice]

And btw, he’s CONSTANTLY trying to start panics, usually out of nothing. Caravan, anarchist looters, muslims entering the country, etc

[microbet]

I don’t own a home. My net worth is negative. I am less than worthless.

[dlk9s]

@microbet

I am less than worthless.

Tell us something we DON’T know!

[anon38180840]

@microbet

I don’t own a home. My net worth is negative.

Oh ok, I didn’t realize that.

@microbet

I am less than worthless.

Well you’re not less than worthless to us. You’re at least breakeven worthless.

Just kidding, of course, you’ve got worth!

[microbet]

I am an asset, but I have liabilities.

[RiskyFlush]

@anon38180840

I have one but I’m not sure it would meet with the approval of the group seeing as it looks almost like a gas mask.

The players should let you wear a hazmat suit if that’s what makes you comfortable sitting at the table.

I would give a hard pass if they’re not willing to let you wear your preferred PPE. But otherwise, I mean you either need to find a new way to make money or yeah, home games with controlled social distancing and reliable environmental factors is something you’ll eventually have to figure out.

[CanadaMatt3004]

But what did the book say about your pony?

[anon38180840]

@RiskyFlush

The players should let you wear a hazmat suit if that’s what makes you comfortable sitting at the table.

I would give a hard pass if they’re not willing to let you wear your preferred PPE. But otherwise, I mean you either need to find a new way to make money or yeah, home games with controlled social distancing and reliable environmental factors is something you’ll eventually have to figure out.

Yeah I mean, I would have to feel it out. I may leave it in my car and if anyone is all masked up like that I would go get it. Given the nature of this and how it’s being organized, and the social aspect of private games, I kind of have to match the group’s intensity level with PPE. Or at least it feels that way.

I’m going to be the poorest guy in the game and the guy winning the most money out of the game… So it’s pretty important not to pick up strike three.

[jerry]

It’s definitely up to you, but remember that testing sucks in this country and a huge amount of cases are asymptomatic. So there’s an x% chance someone has it, a y% chance you’d contract it, and a z% chance it results in death/horrible chronic conditions. Realistically, your chances are pretty good, but if your net worth is over $100k, then you literally don’t need the money, it’s just about how much you want it.

[RiskyFlush]

@anon38180840

I kind of have to match the group’s intensity level with PPE

This is where you lose me, but then I have the luxury of not being dependent on their invitation. What I would suggest then just out of an abundance of caution and care for your wellbeing is for you to decide on the minimum standard of PPE you will accept at a home game. If their intensity is higher, GREAT, that’s a bonus. You were going to settle for less anyway. But if it’s ever below your threshold, get out and don’t go back unless their standard changes. If that ends up meaning you burn through savings until you’re penniless, we will start a GoFundMe to keep you afloat until you get a new job. We just don’t want you to die.

[anon38180840]

@jerry

Realistically, your chances are pretty good, but if your net worth is over $100k, then you literally don’t need the money, it’s just about how much you want it.

Yeah, my situation is that if I go without income for 5 months, I won’t feel rolled for the stake level I’m at and I’ll see my income drop by about 75% post-pandemic vs. pre-pandemic. 10 months and I drop another and it’s 90%. Losing that much income for that amount of time probably sets me back ~5 years in terms of retirement, so from an EV standpoint it’s worth playing - but then again this risk of ruin is some real fucking high level ruin.

On the other hand, just in terms of my living expenses, I can go 2.5-3 years without making money before I run out. But I’d be starting from scratch in poker if I was trying to make my way back in that.

@JohnnyTruant

Exactly that. You need a larger size probably. They run small. I can use a medium or a large but large id more comfortable. Ms.t, who is tiny, can use a medium.

That’s probably it, I got a medium.

@RiskyFlush

This is where you lose me, but then I have the luxury of not being dependent on their invitation.

Yeah, I mean, I guess think of it this way: if you had an invite to some really cool party that was a black tie event and you showed up wearing a t-shirt, shorts, and flip flops… you probably wouldn’t get an invite back. I think it’s kind of like that.

@RiskyFlush

What I would suggest then just out of an abundance of caution and care for your wellbeing is for you to decide on the minimum standard of PPE you will accept at a home game. If their intensity is higher, GREAT, that’s a bonus. You were going to settle for less anyway. But if it’s ever below your threshold, get out and don’t go back unless their standard changes.

Yeah, I think it’s KN95/N95 for me and everyone else in masks, nobody doing anything stupid like raw dogging it with their noses, no like ER doctors or meat packing workers (no offense to either profession, I love 'em all, they’re doing us all a great service and I appreciate it, but I don’t want to sit indoors with them right now). I’ll probably step outside to drink water and such, and I’ll eat a meal right before and not eat until after. Maybe snack on like almonds in an old pill container outside - touch free, just pour 'em in my mouth.

@RiskyFlush

If that ends up meaning you burn through savings until you’re penniless, we will start a GoFundMe to keep you afloat until you get a new job. We just don’t want you to die.

Thanks, I really appreciate it. I’m not in danger of needing this anytime soon - I can last 2.5 to 3 years without income, but then I’d be starting from scratch or having to get on a stake or something. Certainly not something I’d accept a GoFundMe for, given that other people in the world have far more important needs, but I appreciate it none the less.

It essentially comes down to this: I spent seven years grinding in broadcasting, working crazy long hours for no money and racking up debt. I spent 1.5 years getting out of debt and saving up a bankroll. I spent like 5.5 years as a full-time pro working my ass off, riding the ups and downs, including a 300 hour month once when my back was up against the wall. That got me to a pretty sweet position, one where if I maintained it for 3-5 years, I could retire in my 40’s and live a great life from there on out - travel, doing meaningful things as a volunteer/whatever, just enjoying life and helping other people.

That’s all now under threat, and the question is how much health risk am I willing to take to reduce the risk of losing that path? The fact that I’m even thinking about it means I’m willing to take some.

[anon38180840]

BTW, @JohnnyTruant do you know of any cartridges for that P100 that are smaller/less… flashy?

With like small black or gray rectangular ones that don’t draw attention, I could consider it. But with the huge circular pink ones, I dunno if it’s going to fly with the social aspect of the game. Like I’m aware that what I’m saying is absurd on the face of it, but it’s their game and it seems like it’s up to me whether I’m comfortable with what they’re doing.

If it were up to me, I’d get this thing with the P100 cartridges.

[nunnehi]

If we had a Hillary Clinton presidency, the urgency of how the virus was treated last November would have been a lot different. That changes almost every condition the world suffered under the current version of the pandemic.

[MrWookie]

Teacher deaths from COVID-19 raise alarms as new school year begins

[anon38180840]

I’m also thinking I could get tested weekly 4 days after the game, so that if I do get it, I’d know right away and be in a position to talk to a doctor and monitor it closely. I’m not sure what the latest is on treatment with remdesivir and such early on to reduce severity, but maybe that would be in play.

I’m hoping by early next year we have rapid tests available at the consumer level, at which point hopefully I can get everyone in the game to use them and the risk goes to ~0.

[suzzer99]

Under an HRC presidency - FoxNews watchers would have been simultaneously scared shitless, refusing to wear masks, and blaming the government for panicking. It would be so weird.

[Danspartan]

@anon38180840

How risky do you think it is? I definitely want to get your opinion on this.

Up your mask game as suggested above. No way would I play with a cloth mask.

Of course it may do something to your table image and your perception but I’d want a mask that’s damn close to 100%.

Buy two in case you go out later and meet someone.

[anon38180840]

@Danspartan

Up your mask game as suggested above. No way would I play with a cloth mask.

Yeah definitely not using a cloth mask, the only thing I use that for is golf (and maybe switching to foldable KN95s now).

@Danspartan

Of course it may do something to your table image and your perception but I’d want a mask that’s damn close to 100%.

An N95/KN95 should be no problem. The big gas mask style mask is where I’m not so sure.

@Danspartan

Buy two in case you go out later and meet someone.

Haha there will be none of that for me, I think. As JT has said before taking on more risk tends to lead to taking on other additional risk, it’s a slippery slope. For me house hunting and meeting with a lawyer → a few quick grocery trips → considering this.

[Rugby]

N95. Plus glasses. With a bit of medical tape to keep the seal tight.

That’s close to 100% right?