Sure if you know the CFR. Keep in mind it’s constantly changing due to testing availability, demographics, maybe better treatments, possibly summer weather, almost certainly a bunch of other unknowns.
Wild-assed guesses below, don’t @ me:
Personally I think if positive % is around 10%, then actual cases are going to be about 5-10x confirmed cases. So if positive % is 20% as Florida is now, then actual cases would be something like 10-20x confirmed cases.
I feel like IFR is gonna be pretty low for a while due to old/at-risk isolating and youngs going relatively hog wild. So could be .2-.4% at least at first.
To me by far the biggest unknown is how much this leading edge of youngs/healthies is going to morph into something close to the demographics closer to what we saw in NYC in the first bomb. I presume there will be some age/comorbidity-creep. But I don’t think it will be complete - even in blue collar/minority communities, older and at-risk people are going to take it more seriously. But how much is a huge wildcard imo.
Oh, yeah. I was just trying to think of different ways I could think about these numbers to make them more real so I don’t get numb to them and so that I can better convey what they mean in more stark terms to friends/family I encounter who might not be taking it seriously. Like, “10,000 new infections” just doesn’t really translate to much in my mind by itself, but if I say, that’s “100/200/300 more people that will die” it’s a little more stark.
What do you get for new cases * 10 * .3% fatality rate? That could be in the ballpark.
Of course the other big unknown is how many have permanent lung damage, organ damage, or all this chronic-fatigue-type stuff. I’m way more scared of that.
If it was just a 1 in 500 chance of dying (at my age/weight) - I’d practically be out there trying to get it right now just to get it over with. At least if I die I only have to live with my mistake for a few weeks. But if it’s 1 in 100 or 1 in 50 chance of barely being able to get out of bed and just being alone with my thoughts, mulling over that stupid mistake that was so not worth it, possibly for the rest of my life, ugh.
Anyone brave a routine appointment with your eye doctor? Just realized that is on the calendar next week. Got it pushed back in April because lol obviously July would be fine.
County with 650 or so active cases and 250 deaths.
I need a dentist and eye doctor. Expired prescription and am down to last disposables. I’m getting presbyopia or something too so it kind of sucks. I really don’t want to go in though lol.
Yeah, the permanent damage to my lungs or something similar, is the one thing that has really been keeping me in check. Death doesn’t really bother me, but a lifetime not being able to be active or get outdoors in nature is a way worse fate.
This reminds me. One thing not being discussed much is what young people being the leading edge would do to the hospital crunch. They may need fewer ICUs, but they’ll need them longer. The serious cases won’t die in 2 weeks, they’ll fight for a month or two before succumbing or recovering.
My cousin and her husband have it, I found out today. She works as a nurse, so that’s most likely the way they got it. I don’t know when they got tested and all, but so far they are just extremely fatigued. They’re both late 40s, with a 12 year old daughter who so far hasn’t caught it.
Also my close friend in Riyadh was exposed at work. She gets her test result tomorrow, most likely. She’s got a comorbidity or two, so I’m pretty scared. Putting on a brave face for her and staying very positive.
I don’t condone what that guy did, but cancel culture has run amok and let’s spend 4000 posts navel-gazing over that while a dozen more black people get choked to death by cops.
He feels threatened because someone asked him to wear a mask. So threatened he needs to yell and step to some guy. I’m sure he also feels like black people have no reason to feel threatened in America.
Fortunately for all of us, he’ll have some time on his hands to think on all of that now that he’s unemployed!