I’m going to get my crystal ball out, and feel free to quote this post, but I think last week was the bottom of deaths nationwide. It’s up, up, and away from here on out.
We’re going to see in the next few weeks an unwinding of all the pent up trends pushing the death rate down.
The turnaround rate on tests had fallen to 1-2 days. Now it has climbed to a week. This means actual infection rates are growing faster than we’re perceiving.
Positive rates have climbed. At the end of May we were maybe getting about 30% of infections. That’s likely fallen to around 20% since the positive rate has more than doubled in many hotspots. This means actual infection rates are growing faster than we’re perceiving.
Youngs were getting infected in very reckless situations. Those people are likely to remain asymptomatic/mild, and will be infecting older people in less reckless situations, especially because…
Lack of availability of tests means the mild cases are simply not going to know they have COVID. This endangers everyone.
Average age of infection was quite low, but will certainly be climbing (appears to be based on Florida data).
Every leading indicator (hospital bed usage, ICU usage, etc) is pointed in the wrong direction.
The states that have tackled COVID successfully have no more improvements to make.
My guess is 7DMA of 1,000 by the end of July, and 2,000 by the end of August. I hope I’m wrong because that’s a really scary prospect.
I’m curious to see some thoughts from those doing the models on where you think death numbers might get to, particularly in comparison to earlier in the year when things were at their peak in NY.
Here is a screenshot from the projections site I have been using as a reference:
Would it be a terrible short-hand guesstimate method for anticipating deaths to just take the daily new infection numbers and multiply them by the CFR? Or is that going to lead to some kind of gross over/underestimate of what we have coming down the pipe?
Golfing today I used a cloth mask and put it on around the parking lot/clubhouse area (didn’t go inside) and then took it off and folded it carefully in my pocket so the inside didn’t touch the outside. If we crossed paths with others I took it out carefully and put it back on, then repeated the process. I assume as long as the inside doesn’t touch the outside or a contaminated surface, you’re good.
I was considering doing the chin thing, but then if droplets got on my chin/neck, I might just be giving them a free ride to my mouth by going back and forth.
Yes they do and I’m not convinced yet that they’re wrong. (Opening is wrong and bad policy, but politically it polls well, even in blue states.)
“It’s everywhere now, it’s too late to control it. Look around the world, nobody can. Suck it up, buttercup, USA#1 doesn’t stop for snowflakes.”
Is that Trump funded or are they smoking some good shit? I still think we hit 250K by election day, but I haven’t broken it down much.
