Tonight, I went in and looked at peak week (7/15-7/21) vs. this week (8/5-8/11) in new cases and testing.
These are the places that look to me like they’re going up since peak week:
Texas, Illinois, Virginia, Arkansas, Washington, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Montana, and Hawaii
Here are all the reduced testers from peak week to this measurement period:
U.S. (-8.3%), Texas (-54.1%), Florida (-36.1%), Arizona (-23.0%), North Carolina (-19.9%), South Carolina (-31.2%), Tennessee (-10.9%), Alabama (-13.9%), Ohio (-2.8%) Louisiana (-19.0%), Virginia (-5.2%), Arkansas (-21.0%), Utah (-34.0%), Pennsylvania (-4.1%), Mississippi (-9.7%), Washington (-95.8% has not reported any negatives since 8/3), Maryland (-3.2%), Minnesota (-31.6%), Nevada (-7.7%), Iowa (-20.2%), Michigan (-1.8%), Missouri (-12.7%), Colorado (-2.5%), Oregon (-6.6%), Nebraska (-1.5%), Kansas (-18.2%), Idaho (-0.8%), Delaware (-23.0%), South Dakota (-8.5%), North Dakota (-7.1%), Wyoming (-12.8%), Montana (-32.8%), and Vermont (-29.6%)
Ones I’m projecting that are up in tests and up in cases from peak week to this measurement period are:
Illinois, Oklahoma, Indiana, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Hawaii
While cases are certainly down in the U.S., I think testing is obscuring reality big time. Like I said yesterday, things are worse than they actually look by the numbers right now, which means when things start getting bad late this week and next week that they will look worse than they really are because of current conditions not being representative of reality. For now, I will say we are doing great!