Schools can reopen when the prevalence of the virus is much less. In order to get the prevalence of the virus to be less we need dipshits to stop acting like dipshits or our leaders to actually lead. Neither of those things is possible in USA #1 because FREEDUMBS and STONKS.
Hope that helps.
I think you’re sat in a country where cases have gone through the roof when schools have been largely closed. I do not think opening schools would result in an apocalyse as the evidence on the rest of the planet shows this not to be the case.
I think you should start closing unessential stuff so schools can return someday. Or maybe there’ll be a wave of mentally disturbed kids because situation not great for them either.
Someone is interested in running a poker tournament this month. How can this possibly go wrong?
Ummm, cases went through the roof because dumbfuck adults had to be dumbfucks in very specific parts of the country. Not because kids were spreading it around. Now the prevalence is so high that if we send them back to mingle we will get a THIRD spike in the first wave, and you think that’s the best course of action?
Places with low prevalence can send their kids back to school. We dont have that luxury here. You dont get to compare a country with 3000 cases to a country with 4 million and say “Look, the kids didnt spread it here”
FYP
Louisiana running at about 7.4% positive. New Orleans is about 9% of the population of the state and is consistently about 2-4% of the new cases on any given day. Makes me feel a bit better about the state of things in my direct area.
Sure? That’s what everyone here thinks.
You also seem to think schools should be opened immediately.
Not sure where I compared the above? We’re rocking 1.8m cases per USA capita, with 240k per capita no longer with us
Here’s where I’m at with 66m popuation
Imagine a sane competent government takes over in the US today. An aggressive national strategy is immediately implemented. National lockdown, UBI, etc. Assume DPA is invoked to the max and factories are pumping out testing supplies and reagents as if lives were at stake. What is the upper limit of testing that could be achieved? Could we be testing every American every day? Could we do 100M tests a day? 50M?
It seems like the only way to get a handle on the virus is a truly massive ramp-up in testing, much more than even the most vocal testing advocates are talking about. Obviously it would cost a lot but if we can get the economy rebounding relatively quickly it pays for itself many times over.
I’m currently resigned to basically staying home until a vaccine happens. But if I knew most people in my state were getting tested daily (with immediate results!), and only a handful of new cases were found each day, and those people were actually forced to quarantine, I’d probably be fine with going back to basically normal life again.
Meanwhile back in the real world President shit-for-brains says testing is a double-edged sword. SMH.
This is churchill:
I looked at some newspaper reports and seemed to see a variety of timing and degree of opening in the listed counties. Forsythe good to add as well. If you know the specifics for each place, that will be a help to understand the SDI changes over the next month or so.
My model update from a month ago with the 2nd wave has held together pretty well. Cases are a little higher and deaths slightly lower, so hopefully that means the cfr (and the ifr) are better by a bit than the factor I used (3% 28 day cfr)
If we believe the decline in cases detected, then we have peaked on 14 day positive sum meaning the total infected is on the way down. I’d feel better if the national positivity wasnt bouncing around 8% and some of the big states weren’t pushing 20%. I would revise my peak guess to a max 7DRA of 2,000/day sometime late next week.
The blue line is the original “we got it under control the first time” model, or at least through summer. Obviously OFB screwed that up bigly. The orange line is the current model with the 2nd rise mid-June, starting to recede about now. Its too depressing to put in a 3rd rise for OFS.
200K by end of September. <225k by election if OFS goes well. >250k if doesnt.
I’m starting to think we should really use
OFP (Party)
OFB (Business)
OFS (School/sports)
And what we really have done so far is OFP, not OFB
Here they are through 8/1. All of these are partial for this week, but two of them are 6 days worth of measurement and the 3 others are 5 days worth of measurement. The SDI for the two 6 day measurements will be a bit higher in the full measurement based on traditional Sunday SDI being the end of the measurement period. The 5 day measurements will probably be pretty close to the final SDI for the measurement period.
Edited to add in Forsyth County, Georgia graph
What is the lowest SDI score you have seen anywhere and where/when was it if you remember? It is crazy how good, while not perfect, the correlation is in all these graphs you post.
@Nicholasp27 can you help with the details to note with each county as far as timing of OFS?
@nunnehi are these offset cases or current?
@everyone-holy hell are some of these places being STOOPID. The second any number goes down or even levels off its time to OPEN FOR SOMETHING OR OTHER. Trump is especially bad at spiking the football. Maybe the best thing so far is him arguing with himself from the Swan interview.
Welp, my dad just texted me to let me know he and my sister tested positive. I work for the same company as him, luckily in a totally separate building but we’ve interacted briefly every few days. Getting tested this afternoon, hopefully.
Keep in mind he’s explicitly overfitting his projections.
Explain it to me like I am stupid.
His SDI guesses are him just eyeballing what looks good. That’s exactly what you’re reacting to.
