Yes it’s an empirical model. The question is can the observed SDI number and trend in the past predict changes in case count out a week or two?
Ie does the same change now produce the same result as a similar change from a few weeks ago.
The lowest state SDI I’ve seen is about 15, but most places rarely get below 20 anymore. 18 is generally about the lowest it typically gets and that’s not common. I’d say for places that are sparse or not taking it seriously, the places are frequently in 20-25 range.
To give an idea of what pre-pandemic levels look like, for the week of 3/3-3/10 the lowest place was 16 (South Dakota). The highest SDI was 25 (D.C.). 12 places were between 20-25 out of 51 measured. All the rest were between 16-19.
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Here’s Forsyth County. Again, this has a partial 6 day measurement for the last period. The SDI will probably be 2-3 points higher for the full measurement period.
These are current. The SDI is a few days behind right now and I use the same site for SDI and new cases for county level for consistency (could differ from other websites). Today, they’ll probably update it through August 2. By Friday night, it should be through August 4.
Got it. I’m not sure what point Iron is trying to make. Spot it out man, we can take it.
Sorry for the flood of posts, but I felt they needed to be separate. Is there a state you want to look backwards at? I’d be interested to find out what a 5 point change in SDI does to cases in either direction and then try to factor in mask usage based on statewide mandate.
The only thing I’m fairly certain of is that it takes 2 weeks (in general) for a place to turn bad in cases from falling below target SDI, and often 3-4 weeks to slow it back down. Arizona and Texas seem to be outliers on this, where case reduction has seemed to start pretty quickly. That makes me hopeful it’s not harder than it was at the beginning to get the horses back in the barn at any stage of the pandemic no matter how bad a place has done. I think 10 weeks is the minimum magic number, but think we would see significant results at 6 weeks that might be even better than what went on at the start of the pandemic.
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No we did that for now. I just want to look at counties OFS.
My comments along those lines was responding to The comments about your model in general.
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I for one appreciate the hell out of your posts so dont ever be sorry
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uhh am i the asshole here? like this is some fuckin bizzare right wing talk radio rant? yes san diego sucks sucks and evil politicians ruined your life so badly you wanted to kill yourself here’s a check for all that stuff you asked for.
What the federal government has done for support is equivalent to putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound and the city and the state have done nothing shy of euthanization. Is it possible that Supervisor Nathan Fletcher, whose district includes South Park, pivoted from Republican to Democrat and now conveniently aligns himself with everything Gov. Gavin Newsom says solely for the betterment of his future? Could San Diego Councilman Chris Ward’s political aspirations be far more prominent than the support he gives South Park and other communities in his district? Could San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer be quietly watching it all in fear that Newsom will hold back critical relief funds from the city if he doesn’t comply with his edict? When a politician’s willingness to save large parts of the community that he is empowered to support is nonexistent, you get what we are witnessing.
This wild game of back and forth with discriminatory new rules and draconian measures ravages your mental and physical health. The stress riddles you with mounting fear and hopelessness, making even the boldest borderline suicidal. Unfortunately, the thought of suicide has come into play a few times during the last five months and is a testament to just how impactful the decisions being made are to at least me, and I don’t think I am alone because loss, hopelessness and stress are well-known triggers for suicide.
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So when of my old co-worker “friends” that was replying to my linked in posts with OFB OFB OFB for the Covid along with his wife (who is both wife #1 and #2).
He had a stroke a few years ago so I think he is likely on blood thinners which probably saved his ass. He had some pretty extreme head pain.
Surprisingly he stopped replying to my messages but never reached out that he had the Covid. He is a 2A deplorable. Kind of a prick but one I knew how to handle. First time I saw him after his stroke I asked if he needed help with his diaper. Anything less and he’d have accused me of going soft on him which is essentially what he did to me on my Covid posts. So I’m not crying any tears for him.
Cherokee: school started 8/3
Forsyth: school starts 8/13
Paulding: school started 8/3 (but 8/6-8/7 is online for even in person people)
Those 3 all offer virtual only or online only for parents to choose for their kids.
The following are virtual only to start the year:
Cobb: school starts 8/17; they will phase in some in-person later but no dates yet
Fulton: school starts 8/17
Gwinnett: school starts 8/12
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Went to a testing site that’s open from 1-6 PM at 12:45 and was able to get a wristband to come back at 6, they had about 20 left for the day.
NYC to impose checkpoints to enforce quarantine
New York City plans to introduce quarantine checkpoints at key entrances to the city to screen travellers arriving from parts of the US with rising numbers of coronavirus cases.
“Travellers coming in from those states will be given information about the quarantine, they will be reminded that it is required, not optional,” the city’s mayor Bill de Blasio explained at a news conference on Wednesday.
“They’ll be reminded that failure to quarantine is a violation of state law and it comes with serious penalties," he added.
Travellers from more than 30 states must quarantine for 14 days after arriving in the city.
According to the head of New York City’s test and trace service, a fifth of all new local infections are from travellers.
Once the city worst affected by coronavirus, New York has reported no coronavirus deaths in three days, Mayor de Blasio said.
wow, the Poway office did a much better job. everyone was masked (except when getting their picture taken), they were very strict about letting people inside (to the point of assigning them chairs), and they were actually quicker with people at the windows.
Seems like there’s a lot of variance between locations.
“Seems like there was a lot of variance between locations” just about sums up every experience I’ve had since this thing began.
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Nope.
Yup.
E’rybody got choices.
If a man pens an OpEd about the failings of government response to covid, and calls out multiple politicians by name but has no mention of Trump…99.9% he’s a trumpkin.
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What happened with the fire/evac?
Glad to see you posting.
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