I never said NYC was .5%. I said NYC was a worst case scenario. Whole population caught off guard. Nursing homes decimated. Lots of multi-family housing clusters. Not the healthiest people in said clusters.
None of that stuff happens in FL in July. It would be crazy to assume FL would have the same IFR.
Use your words. :D
To some degree I get boxed in. I say there’s good evidence the virus spreads less in heat and humidity, which there is. I may have even said if we stayed at hardcore lockdown I think we could get a summer pause. But we did basically the opposite so we’ll never know.
I always said if we got a summer pause, then we’d probably get complacent and it will come roaring back in the fall. That’s not optimistic. That’s what I thought would happen.
The other big variable is air-conditioning. No rich country except the oil sheik countries and maybe Australia uses the level of AC the us does. Europe is colder and in most other countries they maybe just use AC in the bedroom at night. There was no AC in 1918 so that’s all new territory.
But then somehow I become the guy to point to when anything bad happens during the entire summer.
But again, funny thing is as long as I say things can get worse in the winter it’s fine. I just can’t say things aren’t as bad as they could be now. That doesn’t sit well with the Nich’s of the world. Somehow things are always as bad as they could possibly be, but also always could get much worse. It’s very zen.
I get 0.22% (confirmed covid deaths) to 0.28% (probable covid deaths) from State of NY numbers (for NYC) from today.
I love you either way bro. It’s all fucked up and I’m not holding you to any of your guesses ever.
Oh yeah - every time someone points the NYC death % - they always round way up for some reason.
I’m going to try harder not to get pegged as the “we’re at 20% herd immunity time to partayyyy” guy.
My whole point involves people like me staying home and not having to send their kids to school. Anywhere schools open up all bets are off.
The one other big caveat could be if people who had mild or no symptoms the first time start getting and spreading it again en masse. That could be very very bad.
I wish I could heart this post more.
Another potential big variable is masks and people being careful keeping down the severity of infections. There’s so many moving parts. It’s hard to know which are significant.
But very few of them point to a worse IFR than NYC or N. Italy. Maybe none that I can think of.
I have not seen anything that shows ifr is changing that much. It may look different in aggregate due to varying age distribution— essentially if it hits more young as a larger grouping the ifr will be lower when averaged.
Probably two trends on top of that- better treatment lowers but overloaded health systems raises.
I really think the best we can do for now is take a number of 0.5% and assume it’s constant. I don’t think it can be much lower but it could be higher. But we won’t overestimate deaths or not by much of we assume the bottoms end.
But in reality we can’t really know ifr.
Long term cfrs tend to get down in the 2%-3% range for a ballpark 5x. Again not anything very exact but also probably not awfully wrong.
With all the uncertainty I think the best we can do for now if we are honest is try and make a middle of the road or a bit on the under prediction side for deaths.
All we do have is detected cases and deaths with both being undercounts most likely. But as long as that basis doesn’t shift we can predict deaths from long lag cfr correlations.
I don’t know if we’ll ever know ifr with high certainty. The undetected cases will probably never be a small fraction of cases until we get to very low total cases. Then we have the (statistical) problem of a very low death count which in itself leans towards variance.
I got my girl friend and her mom roses today. Got my mind of covid for a while and cheered them up too. Sometimes we all should take a little R&R from covid.
This place wouldn’t be this place without you so keep doing what you do imo. I’m not hating at all.
I agree I haven’t seen anything showing IFR has gone down. But I haven’t seen any new studies that try to estimate IFR in a long time period.
My basic argument I guess is that I would bet money at least some of these factors are dragging down IFR in some significant way:
It looks like the ultimate graph would be roughly the same as my SDI vs. weekly new cases graphs (or maybe that’s what the bottom graph is). Here’s the data with it as weekly new cases instead of cumulative. One of the things I was hoping to see was the ‘crossing’ point, so there might be some differences from the scaled graph to my graphs that might be visually cool.
| Measurement Period | Florida Weekly SDI Average | Florida Weekly New Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 3/11-3/17/20 | 24 | 186 |
| 3/18-3/24/20 | 45 | 1,226 |
| 3/25-3/31/20 | 55 | 4,926 |
| 4/1-4/7/20 | 59 | 8,409 |
| 4/8-4/14/20 | 60 | 6,620 |
| 4/15-4/21/20 | 57 | 6,128 |
| 4/22-4/28/20 | 53 | 5,351 |
| 4/29-5/5/20 | 47 | 4,593 |
| 5/6-5/12/20 | 44 | 4,484 |
| 5/13-5/19/20 | 43 | 5,021 |
| 5/20-5/26 | 42 | 4,784 |
| 5/27-6/2 | 35 | 4,813 |
| 6/3-6/9 | 36 | 8,463 |
| 6/10-6/16 | 33 | 14,109 |
| 6/17-6/23 | 34 | 23,394 |
| 6/24/-6/30 | 38 | 48,931 |
| 7/1-7/7 | 40 | 61,360 |
| 7/8-7/14 | 36 | 77,835 |
| 7/15-7/21 | 38 | 78,205 |
Hopefully it’s easy to just swap in this other data set.
“Coach, speaker, thought partner, astrophysicist”
I dunno, seems like he’s burying the lede here.
Sir, this is the internet, you are obligated to argle-bargle endlessly over unimportant shit.
Maybe if I had coke.
Going to walk the dog and make bleep bloop music.
No, that’s just his cognitive ability test memory question that he scored well on so now he puts it in his videos to add credibility.
What happened with the rent negotiation that got discussed a couple of weeks back. @anon38180840 ? Or @?
Exactly. Where is this mystery market of renters if a massive number are kicked out?
You may lower your price to attract someone to move to your building but given that rents expire over time, not all at once (outside college towns) you may have to wait. And then it just becomes a game of musical chairs as some of your still paying tenants leave you for greener pastures.
Those people are never going to make up the money either. The ONLY way out of this whole rental market death spiral is what the CARES act did- subsidize the whole thing w government debt.
What’s bleep bloop music?