The coworkers wife I posted about early this week with the go fund me is off the vent and recovering.
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That reduction is great and all, but is there any reason we won’t see a third surge this fall/winter?
We never leave the second surge…
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We would never see it. Unless you have some reason to believe we have unused testing capacity
Right now we don’t know whether or not COVID-19 is seasonal. 4/7 human coronaviruses are seasonal, so there’s good reason to expect that it might be.
Yeah, but which season?
I’m too lazy to look this up, but I don’t think any of them prefer the summer?
Well, it started during winter weather and is surging during the summer throughout the world.
I suspect that it isn’t seasonal.
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I’m not sure, but I can ask him and see what he says.
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Too hard to tell if there is a seasonal component because other measures are not staying the same. If you look at Australia where the outbreak in summer was easily controlled but the current outbreak in winter isn’t and Europe where similar things are happening but the other way around then a seasonal component is likely. What is clear is that if you take no measures then you are screwed no matter what season it is.
I mean I think it’s clear that it prefers having people indoors. So when it’s 90+ degrees down south or winter up north, that’s problems.
This one actually confuses me. I have an ultra-deplorable survivalist relative. He has sworn an unrelenting fealty to Hannity and Trump, BUT he also hates cops and has maintained since forever that they are essentially a criminal organization who deserve to be protested. I can follow someone who believes all government is evil, states rights, free market hooray, but I don’t know how a person can square that with
- Trump using federal forces
- to squash protests
- against the cops he hates
Might need to move this one to the other thread if you have any substantial comments 
Here’s the SDI grade book for the week of 7/15-7/21.
I made 5 SDI adjustments this week based on having more data, and they are:
Indiana (adjusted to 30+ from 25+), Missouri (adjusted to 30+ from 25+), Nebraska (adjusted to 30+ from 25+), Rhode Island (adjusted down to 30+ from 35+), Wyoming (adjusted to 25+ from 20+)
It’s possible I’ll be adjusting Tennessee and Kansas up next week, as well. There should be a slowing of their cases this week if they’re at their target. If not, they’re not at target.
The Good (at or above target SDI):
Arizona (4 weeks, 5 weeks under at worst), Texas (4 weeks, 4 weeks under at worst), Tennessee (4 weeks, 4 weeks under at worst), District of Columbia (18 weeks, 1 week under at worst 3/11-3/17), Pennsylvania (5 weeks, 2 weeks under at worst), Kansas (5 weeks, 3 weeks under at worst), New Mexico (4 weeks, 4 weeks under at worst), Delaware (6 weeks, 1 week under at worst), Vermont (6 weeks, 1 week under at worst), Louisiana (1 week, 5 weeks under at worst), Virginia (1 week, 2 weeks under at worst), Idaho (1 week, 5 weeks under at worst), Montana (1 week, 6 weeks under at worst)
The Bad (2-4 weeks below target SDI):
New York (3 weeks), Utah (3 weeks), Maryland (3 weeks), Minnesota (3 weeks), Colorado (3 weeks), Connecticut (3 weeks), Maine (3 weeks), Wyoming (3 weeks), Alabama (2 weeks), Rhode Island (2 weeks), Florida (2 weeks), South Carolina (2 weeks), Mississippi (2 weeks), New Hampshire (2 weeks)
The Ugly (5 weeks or more below target SDI):
Alaska (9 weeks), Arkansas (11 weeks), California (8 weeks), Indiana (9 weeks), North Carolina (12 weeks), Massachusetts (8 weeks), Nevada (8 weeks), Illinois (8 weeks), United States (9 weeks), Ohio (9 weeks), Oklahoma (12 weeks), Washington (8 weeks), New Jersey (7 weeks), Iowa (9 weeks), Wisconsin (9 weeks), Michigan (7 weeks), Kentucky (9 weeks), Oregon (8 weeks), South Dakota (9 weeks), West Virginia (10 weeks), North Dakota (10 weeks), Hawaii (8 weeks), Missouri (9 weeks), Nebraska (8 weeks)
Off the Wagon (below target SDI 1 week):
Georgia (-8)
Cliffs:
13 states or places are above their target SDI guess
14 states are 2-4 weeks below their target SDI guess
24 states and the United States as a whole are 5 weeks or more below their target SDI guess
1 state is below its target SDI for 1 week
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It’s coming back because everything went back to business as usual regarding restrictions. So it spread aggressively during the winter and is coming back during the summer. I mean, can somebody claim that it’s seasonal because it didn’t spread quickly during the spring?
Chile and Belarus couldn’t have a greater difference in climate and yet it spread quickly in both places while incompetent governments ignored it or played it down.
I think a bigger component than whether it’s seasonal or not could be just how many people have already gotten it in a region - out of the pool of likely people to get it. IE - essential workers, large families living in close quarters, young invincibles, idiots who think it’s a hoax, etc.
Unless NYC fully opens back up and forces all the kids back to school, which seems very unlikely - are they going to get hammered in the fall? Maybe not. There’s a giant pool of people like me out there who aren’t going in to the office or doing much other risky behavior any time soon.
If every region in the US has already gone through its wave where the virus picked off all the low-hanging fruit of easy to infect people, the fall wave could 100% depend on stuff like if schools are opened up too soon and if people like me are going back to offices.
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Chiefsplanet is aware MO isn’t looking good right now.
Are there still lots of hoaxers over there?
It seems like extreme temperatures are bad because they force people inside. The virus doesn’t seem to mind the heat or the cold that much as far as its survival. Surface survival on outdoor surfaces may be impacted, but that’d be about it. But people congregating indoors is the big issue.
I don’t think this happened in a lot of blue states.
It came back in Australia because quarantine of returning travellers wasn’t enforced properly. Unqualified security guards on minimum wage were sleeping with quarantined people. But I do think seasonality is big now as case numbers continue to rise despite us being in a hard lockdown for two weeks now (all time high yesterday), suggesting it is seriously infectious if it is still spreading. Australias are far more, though obviously not great, compliant than Americans.
Saw this and at least we’re not repeating NY right? Right?
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