They’re just starting from a lower base level of infection when they allow SDI mitigation to be relaxed.
1 Like
Yeah, I mean a true side effect of good SDI is far fewer active cases. I’m still trying to wrap my head around the idea of how easy it was to spread once things relaxed in many places. It must mean there were multiple super spreaders out in the community at all times and that COVID-19 was just looking for new hosts to start spread again.
Part of the reason Michigan and Minnesota did well for as long as they did was they had very few active cases relatively for how many they had at their peak. I haven’t gone through the numbers in a few weeks, so it might be interesting to look again in comparison to the last time I checked.
The base infection rate has a lot to do with it, but I’d also speculate that places that had really good adherence to lockdown rules and a good SDI are going to have a higher % of people that stay at least semi-locked down even once the formal rules are loosened.
Just because certain activities are allowed doesn’t mean everyone will do them, and, I’d imagine that there is community variance wrt the % of people who go full Yolo as soon as possible and the % of people who decide to sit back and look at the stats for a few weeks before they personally open up.
1 Like
Here are updated County Level SDI graphs. It looks like Sumter County turned the corner and Orange County, FL’s suspect numbers have turned to reality. Maricopa County’s numbers are significantly down from the last measurement period, but they’re still not at the perceived target SDI meaning they’ll still have massive amounts of cases for the foreseeable future. I think the only provable protest effect so far is King County, WA because they continue to get hit despite being very near their target SDI guess. I’m probably going to start graphing Portland soon to see what happens there as I think it’s one of the few places protest effects will be easy to notice if they happen.
Inside the spoiler are these counties: Harris County, TX, Horry County, SC, King County, WA, Maricopa County, AZ, Orange County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Sumter County, FL, and Tarrant County, TX
2 Likes
Alright how do I tell my friend who is seriously overweight that they’re high risk without hurting their feelings? She’s only 31 but she’s like 5’7’’ 250? Maybe higher.
She wants to go to one of our outdoor desert parties. It’s not the official one because they would never do that but there are outshoots of them and I hear mask compliance is like 20%.
This is a different friend from the warehouse one who is aware of her risks.
Here’s the Portland (Multnomah County, OR) SDI vs. new cases graph that I’ve started tracking as of today:
She knows she’s obese. The main issue is whether you feel comfortable telling her that she shouldn’t go because she has at least one obvious risk factor.
I’ve never heard being overweight is a risk factor? I think you are making assumptions of her health based on her weight.
It’s on the cdc website as a risk factor
1 Like
All the young people I’ve seen have bad outcomes (death or icu stays) had a BMI >35
2 Likes
Are there any people in “good health” at that height/weight?
3 Likes
Of course there are
I say this as someone who has officially gotten into ‘fat’ the past 3 months, the answer to this is no. You can have normal blood tests, blood pressure, sugar etc and you’re still at higher risks for a ton of things.
9 Likes
Lol Clovis
7 Likes
There are people who run marathons but still are just built like trolls. They’re rare. I used to work for a guy like that.
My trainer said when he was a body-builder he always showed up on BMI warning lists based on his height and weight. I think he was trying to apply to be a cop or something and they rejected him for being too fat.
This is how I would approach it.
Ask her if she is planning on taking any special precautions, given the increased risk for someone at her weight. This maintains respect for her agency by making clear that it is her decision to go, while giving her the opening to ask questions and better educate herself about the risks if she is ignorant. Of course, you’ll probably need to have an answer better than “the CDC says so” if she asks for more information. You can start the conversation by mentioning that you have heard that mask compliance is around one-in-five.
1 Like
I hear people use this argument all the time but like - bodybuilders aren’t really known for their good health right? There’s a reason football players will drop 70 lbs as soon as they retire.
I remember the big buff nurse who was in his 30s who was in the hospital for like over a month
So if anyone remembers my story 3.5 weeks ago with my dad and his business and me quitting over him and no one else taking any precautions even after someone was exposed to a confirmed positive and kept coming to work and didn’t get tested.
Update: My dad very likely has covid. Cough, heavy chest, low fever and pulse ox of 93. I think I convinced him to get tested tomorrow even though “he doesn’t really believe in it.”
We were supposed to sign some papers together today at 1. I was 15 minutes late so he was gone before I got there, but I was in the same tiny (~4’x8’) enclosed entryway that he had been in 15 minutes earlier, but only for 1-2 minutes, so I don’t feel like it was high risk for me and I haven’t seen him in person since our blowup over 3 weeks ago.
11 Likes
I’m pretty sure obesity is up there with old age for top comorbidities. There’s been plenty of reporting to that effect and the CDC lists it as a comorbidity.
1 Like