Things are breaking bad in Japan. Yesterday a new record high of 795 infections were reported–double the previous high.
It’s getting so bad that Tokyo’s governor has requested that people stay home during the four-day weekend that begins today.
Looks like I’m going to be hunkering down in my small town for the long haul.
This is with widespread mask compliance, correct?
I thought this was well-done, not sure if it’s been posted
lol I see one of the leading inactivated virus candidates comes from Wuhan. Good luck getting people to take that.
Also I am surprised by how many of these development methods seem experimental / not the usual way vaccines are made. In a situation where the timeline is radically compressed that concerns me quite a bit.
Still hard to eat and drink with a mask on.
Yes, mask use is still near 100% at least where I live, and I would guess in most places.
However, most of the surge in cases has been attributed to younger people in their 20s and 30s, and concentrated at bars and restaurants, where people mingle in poorly ventilated close quarters with masks off for obvious reasons.
And to add fuel to the fire, the government inexplicably launched a domestic travel campaign recently to boost the ailing tourism industry, although travel to and from Tokyo (where most of the cases are concentrated) has been excluded.
Similar to the Czech Republic. Outbreaks have mostly come from tourist attractions and night venues like pubs and clubs.
Like Japan, Czech Republic also encouraged people to vacation within the Czech Republic rather than travel abroad in order to boost the tourism industry and make it less likely to bring covid19 over from other countries.
Yea police don’t want to give these tickets at all and it’s obvious
On 6/8, 1point3acres had cumulative cases passing 2 million. Today, we rammed past 4 million.
Texas going way over 200 deaths today. Already at 174 with only a little more than half of the counties in. Just insane.
Even more impressive is the last million only took about 15 days.
Gonna be a new “second wave” high deaths today. Still not clear whether we are looking at a gentle or steep death curve increase for the next couple weeks
Our phase 1 (which was still pretty restrictive, basically allowed some more retail as long as they could offer curbside pickup, a few other services, etc) was late May, and Phase 2 (some indoor dining @ 50% capacity, some other opening, but accompanied by a mask mandate) was June 22.
[If you feel like a deep dive, here are the rules COVID-19 Health Guidances | coronavirus ]
As far as tourism into DC goes, I’m sure there is some, but definitely less than usual (especially compared to a typical, say, 4th of July), and a lot of tourist sites are the monuments (which are outdoors), or museums (where I haven’t been since this all started, but I’d imagine that you can actually distance reasonably well given the capacity limitations)
The first wave death curve was pretty steep. That may have been because hospitals in NYC got hammered early on. I don’t expect this one to be that steep but I don’t think 90% of the general public is that plugged in so when we start breaking 2k/day in early August I think it will be pretty unexpected for a lot of people.
The million dollar question on wave 1.5 is can the hospitals handle the surge that is coming. I suspect on a beds front most can. On a staffing front I suspect a lot can’t especially as we see nurses and doctors increasingly infected again. The main difference is that this time the surge is happening everywhere. You aren’t going to have an easy time flying doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists to the hardest hit places because probably 35 states or so are about to get absolutely hammered. All of that will also increase the death rate some.
My slope guess was +50/day for four weeks straight.
Given the mitigation presented by social distancing, I would like to see data organized into positives per unit area (physical space), to derive exposure risk.
Any reason that should not be a thing?
It’s almost like they prefer clickbait headlines to actual journalism.
I think the only way I could deal with that would be to create a whole shadow pro-Biden anti-Trump conspiracy theory hive and see if it would take off.
There are no Confederate statues! The statues are crisis actors pretending to be vandalized and toppled in an effort to mobilize Trump’s base! I’ll try to work in pedophilia later.
Oh my god, it all makes sense now.
My instinct is places that do really well with SDI take longer to show effects of relaxation. That’s keeping in mind D.C.'s SDI score has only dropped 10 below my perceived target SDI 4 weeks. This is one of the really tough ones to get a bead on a target SDI because it’s always been so high there.
I think it’s possible we might be seeing the residual effects now of the lowest SDI of 54 from 6/2-6/9, which would give the idea of that relaxation taking close to 6 weeks to show up. Some places that went a long time with good SDI took around 4 weeks to start rebounding, but none were as good at SDI as D.C. If my target SDI is too low (I think it’s possible it should be 55+ instead of 50+), then it’s possible this might be the current peak without the help of more testing. I don’t really see D.C. hitting 100 cases per day consistently without testing being the reason. Through 5 days of the current measurement, D.C. is still at 60 SDI though it will drop a little bit based on Mon/Tue numbers.