COVID-19: Chapter 5 - BACK TO SCHOOL

Seen on the street

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“I cannot allow myself to be tracked”

  • sent from my iPhone
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Wait until they find out the government literally assigns them a number at birth, they’ll be outraged.

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Obviously didnt watch this whole thing, but have seen a few clips, and at least Wallace is trying in the clips Ive seen. A lot better questions than any of the mooks at the press conferences ask

Heads-up: I invited the DC data modeler to come join us over here at UP. Hopefully he will and will engage in some discussion with us.

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And they probably carry cell phones around.

@goofyballer, I’m sure you’ve said this, but what is your data source?

The reason I ask is that I’ve recently been playing with the county-level data from Johns Hopkins, and I get a slightly different looking pattern of new cases vs. weekly % change in cases when I aggregate to the state level.

I haven’t looked too much into the pros/cons of using different sources, but am curious about it.

The county-level data is neat because I think it gives you a little more precise picture of where the hot spots are. (Hint, they’re where you think they’d be.)

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It’s also got population in the dataset, so you can see what’s happening on a per capita basis. If you look at highest number of 7dma cases per capita, it’s not surprising that you get a lot of fairly low-density places:

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But holy shit at Miami being ranked number 9 on this measure. That is scary as fuck.

Sorry, one more thing. Looking at per capita new cases for large cities (>=100k population) probably gives the best indication of current hotspots:

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Column on the right is the 7-day average of new cases. Florida and Texas just battling it out.

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I have three basically, the downstairs is all open. They’ll be in 2 of the 3, including my bedroom. My concern is that I can’t wipe down fabric, so my couch and my bed (headboard is fabric) can’t be wiped down.

Right, I will, this is about minimizing that work because it ends up taking a few hours to wipe down everything. The first time it sucked, the second time I moved everything on the counters into my bedroom, and covered the sofa with blankets, which helped save time. But if they go into my bedroom too, I have the bed to worry about.

I also shut off the a/c last time, this time they may be turning it off and on because it may be the source of the leak, so everything will get blown all around.

My plan was to wait a few hours after they’re gone to return. How long do we think it can stay in the air even aerosolized? I thought that was 2-3 hours.

This is a legit ad going around the nursing circles for emergency staffing in Florida:

Are you comparing current 7DMA with week ago’s 7DMA? I think that’s what goofy’s doing, and it’s what I do with the JHU data. My trend map is generated from that comparison to determine the redness or blueness, and then the darkness is calculated based on the peak 7DMA and weighted population density (cases/pop/density). I see on today’s map that CA, LA, HI, WV, SD, MN, NJ, and DE are even or down compared with last week, and everyone else is up.

Yes, comparing current 7DMA with Lag7 7DMA. California is one of the states that stood out as being very different: Goofy had California with about 15% increase in cases, while my county-level data from JHU had California with a slight decrease.

@anon38180840

https://www.safespaceco.com/product/safespace-disinfectant-germ-fogger/

(seems like a troll because it’s called safespace, but it’s not - just the first disinfectant fogger that came up searching)

https://mobile.twitter.com/Bob_Grip/status/1284866705789984770

Any normal single person would probably ask them to wear masks, then shut the doors to the rooms they’ve spent time in and sleep downstairs for as long as a cursory google search indicated was needed for the virus to die.

ie NBD

Yeah when we had people work on our house we just quarantined in the rooms for a couple days. I made sure they wore masks. Then I wiped down everything we could possibly touch. I premade food for moms and had an ice chest in her room.

Though to be fair they had several kick ass HEPA filters running 24/7 until they left and they put up plastic sheeting with zippers around our doors etc. You could probably rent one of the hepa filters for not that much. I’d look into that.

Didn’t seem that crazy (except for $100/hr for the RNs) until I got to the end: “Must report TONIGHT (7/19)”! Holy crap.

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I know 7 nurses and I know not a single one would take that offer even though that money is crazy. Though they’re all over 30. I’m guessing lots of 23-27 year old types might take it.

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my wife and i went to get some takeout the other night at this shopping center in Hoover near birmingham. The shopping center had a brand new restuarant called Big Whiskys? Not where we went but we drove by, looks like a Buffalo wild wings sports bar type place. It was legit packed out man, like a huge parking lot just full of people, waiting outside for a table inside

Then we drove past a New orleans bar/grill type place that had an outdoor patio which was probably only 20x20 and crammed with people not a mask in sight, and people were squeezing through the door next to eachother to get inside, no masks either.

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I would expect Hoover to be full of dummies that think they can’t catch it. I’ve been to that area a bunch for work, have a buddy that still lives in Hoover.

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That’s interesting, but I’m not sure it’ll work for fabrics? Like, wiping down counters is not a big deal. I just don’t want to wait like 3 days to use my sofa or bed, and I don’t want to wipe down every single kitchen appliance I use daily.

Normal single person? I’m ■■■■■■■■■■■, have we met? I’m a single person with three underlying health risks for COVID who’s been on a super restrictive lockdown for 4.5 months, and who actually reads the news about all the possible permanent effects of a COVID infection.

Also keep in mind that this is in USA#81, and even in a county that’s doing a good job by US standards there’s a 10% chance of someone in a random crowd of 10 having COVID. This will be 3-4 guys most likely, but they’re also not a random crowd - they’re going in and out of numerous apartments and probably not very mask compliant.

Downstairs is a room they will be in. I’d have to sleep on my office floor for a few days, and I don’t have a sleeping bag. I could do it, but it seems like tarping the bed is a better option unless they have to keep coming back in.

I could stay here and stay in my office while they’re here, but the a/c would be an issue. It’s supposed to be 95 degrees Tuesday, so if it’s off it’s going to be sweltering. If it’s on, which I suspect it will be for stretches as they figure out what’s going on, it’s circulating the air into all the rooms. I suppose I could close the vents in the office and put plastic over them to make sure nothing slips through, then I’m just dealing with the heat.

That’s an interesting idea, but Home Depot says $170 per day and if I were still here I’d be sweating whether it would be effective enough to keep me safe with the A/C running. My plan if it’s a one-day thing is to golf with my Dad, then hang out on my parents’ porch and come home late and start the cleanup/wipedown process. If it’s a multiday thing, I don’t know. I guess sleep on the office floor, and get up and out early in the morning before they come in.