SC no longer reporting hospitalization data nor ventilator use as they can’t confirm with cdc
lol, don’t bother asking anyone’s permission, just hop on over to Canada and settle in. Worked for my ancestors.
No, but we’re a couple years away from the world seeing it. I mean, we don’t deserve refuge any more than the hundreds of millions of other people in the world who need it. We deserve it less, if anything.
So que sera sera, I guess. I’m 34 and I’ve basically accepted that between living in America in the time of COVID-19 with underlying health risks, and this administration’s threat to democracy and to dissidents, the odds that I live to see 50 are a lot lower than I’d like to think about. I’m making peace with the fact that I deserve whatever happens for not doing more to prevent this outcome in the first 30 years of my life. So if we get let in someplace in that scenario, great. If not, it’s our own fault for letting our country get to this point.
I knew all along that you had to get out before it was obvious that you had to get out, but I didn’t do it. Now the truth of the matter is that we should probably be out in the streets fighting desperately to hold onto the freedom we still have, because by the time it’s clear we should have been doing that, it will also be too late, and we cannot count on being let in anywhere as refugees.
Dark times now, and darker times lie ahead in all likelihood.
You will be able to get out of the country to somewhere acceptable, if not even desirable. Hopefully sooner, like a year , than later. Short of assassinating trump there is really nothing u could have done to prevent him. Stay positive, hang in there and have your homework done and be ready to leave if the possibility presents itself. There are still hoards of incredible people in the US that will hopefully get this thing turned around given the opportunity. If not, we get smuggled into Canada of Mexico.
I invented them based on interpreting the data after tracking it first for about two months (they’re listed on each place’s graph with markers). I think my guesses are solid in most places. Some places still don’t have enough data to make an accurate guess.
Based on what’s happened, I’m confident if most places had stayed above my target SDI guess for 10 weeks they would have bent the curve (12 might have crushed it). Almost no place did that, and a number of hard hit places now stopped either 1 week short or 2 or 3 weeks short.
Now I think SDI is more predictive of how long a trend might last and is getting better at showing what might be a place’s max new daily cases (whatever that place’s current positive percentage is).
It’s a work in progress because there still isn’t enough data. I am convinced SDI is a huge factor that can help us find at least a detente in the pandemic. The movement of people is a big key of what’s going right and wrong, which shouldn’t really be a surprise to anyone.
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That’s what nurse tiktok is slinging.
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We could conceivably get into Mexico if Canada isn’t taking us in, but getting from the Northeast to Mexico might be an issue, and the COVID-19 situation in Mexico isn’t much better.
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I hear New Brunswickers are very hospitable to foreigners during a crisis. They were 911 first responders in their own very special way.
And here I was thinking corporations were dragging us toward sanity to save their customers or something, lol.
TR to Cape May NJ
Lots of traffic into NJ. Google Maps wanted us to go towards AC but we got off to avoid that madness since we were going South anyhow. Def glad we decided to go the state park beach at the CM lighthouse instead of commercial beach boardwalk.
We had a good 30 feet (10m) minimum distance. Light breeze. No worries about transmission. In the public areas masks were near 100%. I think I saw one face all day that should have been covered.
We took hoagies from home for lunch and stopped at a local Dairy Queen type place on the way home.
Two bonuses
- saw Dolphins! Crappy pic below
- saw a country corner gas station that had an outdoor tent selling Trump 2020 Merch. No business when I saw it.
TLDR- you can safely go to beach in NJ if you avoid the crowded areas.
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FYP.
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Ashamed to say as a native New Jerseyan that I haven’t been down the shore in a few years now. It didn’t help that neither of our kids really took to it and think it’s cheesy as hell; combined with the sticker shock of parking, food, and everything else when you haven’t been in a while it’s not so tempting these days. Someplace quiet like Cape May would be nice but it’s a tough sell when something like Point Pleasant is 1/3 the drive for us.
I was so confused as to why there was sea in your sky. Then I was confused as to why there was sky in your sea.
Eventually I realised I was an idiot.
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Because I’ve never really described my methodology, I’ll write about how it came to be here.
Probably back in early or mid-April a friend of mine in England found the umd website and thought I might find it interesting based on other stuff I was looking at. I quickly saw how useful the tool was and began manually compiling the data every time it was posted with the hopes of trying to find out what kind of actual impacts the SDI had on cases. At the time, the goal was seeing how long it would take to flatten the curve at various SDIs (no predictions). Then just as the country was on the right track, Dumb Donny started screaming about 1 or 2 weeks too early. At that point, the exercise was going to turn into trying to figure out when case surges would happen based on the changes Trump was creating. The problem is that everyone, for the most part, was on the downswing at that time so there was no data to even begin to form any conclusions yet.
That provided the first ‘surge’ data point. The second would be on Mother’s Day which is when I think I started trying to come up with surge guesses. The third data point for surge prediction would obviously be Memorial Day Weekend. The fourth data point would be OFB starting around May 31 in most places (Georgia and Texas I think did OFB on the day before Memorial Day weekend if memory serves).
This is where confirmation bias would have crept in and why I asked Dan to comment on anything he thought was obviously wayward in private. When I began, I did it at the daily SDI level trying to figure out a close to exact day when I thought the surge would happen based on a daily SDI data point using earlier small surges as guides. I was always under the assumption that any real surge would happen at the 14 day mark going in based on the 5.6 day symptom arrival and the 14 day incubation period. What I found at the day level is the obvious ‘surge’ (in many places) would start at around 7 days. Any place where falling below the daily target SDI was 7 days to surge were the ones I felt I had the most accuracy. I felt less confident about the ones that were longer, which probably meant I needed to find an SDI number that got me to that 7 day mark.
Keeping in mind I was using Mother’s Day as the first data point to predict the surge, I nailed something like 18 places before they happened based on what that place’s SDI was (regardless of the number that fluctuated place to place). In that first set, I was only off by one or two days on either side for most of the places I felt I could create a target SDI for.
By the second data set, I could see that it wasn’t holding in several of the places I had nailed. I was often off in those places being either 1 day early, 1 day late or 3 days early.
Not long after that, I think I saw a double x-axis graph goofy put together that gave me an idea that I reached out to the same friend about. I couldn’t figure out how to make a graph like that, but my friend knew how to do it in google sheets. We started experimenting with various graphs, and it quickly became clear the data was too noisy at the day level. When I went to new cases by week and SDI weekly average, it immediately cleaned up. It took almost no time to realize my original 14 day window of target SDI I’d originally thought of was possibly ‘correct’. Going down to the day level was too detailed with way too much variation. It’s useful for seeing behavior, but not toward seeing trends.
Once we had the graph style accomplished, I began plugging in the data not knowing what I’d find. Over and over and over 14 days after a perceived drop below a guessed target SDI, cases started clear surging. I can’t remember for sure, but what I think I did at first was used my initial target SDI guess from the day level to see how much it lined up with the weekly target guess. Once I got through enough graphs, I was able to ‘predict’ the target SDI in places where I had no clue due to not predictable surges happening. Just look at the SDI at 14 days before the noticeable rise and see if it looks different than the previous week. If it did, that’s probably the target SDI. If it didn’t, then something else was creating the surge (testing, reporting, etc.). There are now essentially 4 places I’m kind of unsure about and D.C., which has done the pandemic as well as it could have been done meaning there’s no data to create a confident surge guess. If I’m off on target SDI guesses, I don’t think I’m more than 5 points off. The only one I think could be really wrong on is North Carolina, and even that I think I’m possibly only 5 points off on (my target SDI of 40+ might have been the result of testing, but they fell below my other 35+ guess immediately after the first below 40 week meaning I have no way to know for sure).
In short, the first use of SDI was trying to guess how long and what type of SDI would be needed to reduce or slow spread. The second was trying to predict what SDI would create surges. The third (in progress) will be seeing how long it takes surges to get under control when returning back to the target SDI guess, especially considering how long so many places have been under their target SDI guess. If a place is still rising despite being at their target SDI guess, that means my target SDI guess was probably wrong and I’m now starting to make adjustments (2 so far, with potentially 2 more coming next week).
If I had a formula it would have these kinds of variables: SDI, 14 day incubation period max, 5.6 (5.1 now) days to symptoms, an additional 2 days to show up as a result minimum, and when first noticeable rise in cases happens. It’s not scientific and is going off of instinct, but I think it’s a good instinct.
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I didn’t put a space between the picture code and it melded into one image apparently. Consider it an intelligence test. You failed. 
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You’ll have to forgive him, he was extremely drunken last night & today has been a bit of a blimp…
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I wish people would stop posting long graph death predictions like that right as we’re about to hit the big July 20 potential expected deaths surge.
I’m old enough to remember the first day IHME got national news for their predictions (maybe third week of March). I had been looking at case numbers for a few weeks at that point, and when I saw their first graphs I was like, ‘whoa, what is this, this is beyond optimistic based on what I’m seeing’. Sure enough, their model was absolute garbage. I feel like just about anything that looks this optimistic is too optimistic.
Speaking of, @Fatboy8, did the guy you’ve been re-posting do an update this week?
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I’ve had my share of pessimistic days ITT, but suggesting that this is the demise of America and that Americans will need to flee en mass and become refugees seems a bit…bold.
You can still hop a flight on every major US airline to Orlando tomorrow and be in Disneyworld for Monday morning rope drop, so I think we’re still a few days away from Canadian refugee camps overflowing with Americans.
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