Realistic Roberts
I don’t know how much sense it makes to lump in the 5% positive states with the 20s-30%s. So I’ve been looking at those states, multiply by 5% CFR and that should be your deaths in a month.
I eyeball-backtested this with AZ, TX, and FL and it seems in the ballpark, which is as close as you’re ever going to get anyway since there are so many moving parts.
For the 5% positive test states maybe chop the CFR in half or something.
The idea is it doesn’t matter what CFR you pick as long as you add the right lag time so that it fits the back-test, or pick a month lag time then fit the CFR to that if you like (unless your curve just goes bananas or something within a month).
The other issue is that the very first leading edge of this “Memorial Day Wave” should have been mostly youngs. But that was 2 months ago - which is why I only went back a month to compare to today.
What’s the development? Are locals just being too cavalier and its picking up again? Or are businesses like sending people to the US for work and stuff?
Sounds like it’s just people getting together more. They said in phase 1 the average positive person had 6-8 contacts while now its 13-15.
Not sure if this was posted here already, but former skeevy creepy American Apparel guy Dov Charney is now COVID-flaunting employee-endangering Los Angeles Apparel Dov Charney. Probably still skeevy tbh.
Ya I would guess 1500-2000 3-4 weeks from now at this point. I would aim lower because of red state death counting as well as what you mentioned. Florida/Georgia/Arizona/Texas and the like are all at about a 2% average CFR. So we should expect 3-4 weeks from now to be seeing something like a 7DMA of:
Florida 250
Texas 200
Arizona 80
Georgia 70
Add in the other states and that is my best guess for where we will be in mid August.
1 Like
I guess I’ll just print this post out and let my old job know it’s time to shut down the online ordering system they implemented and hire more humans back because I’m done staying home now.
Isn’t the entire point of unemployment to give people an incentive to look for a job?
But tbf, “the science is clear” and “the science is on our side.”
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1283842328587907072?s=19
1 Like
Didn’t mean to butt in.
I think those states are more like 5% CFR assuming a month lag time. Go look at cases a month ago and deaths now. I’d expect like twice your #s deaths although 7DMA might be a little lower since it’s the previous week basically right? Or do you not know 7DMA for today until 3.5 days from now?
1 Like
Lmao perfect.
That is true. I didn’t exactly account for their cases exploding skewing the simple way to calculate CFR. Anyone know the simplest way to see the total cases/deaths for a month ago on a state level?
From memory I don’t think they were 5 but they weren’t 2 either. In my unhinged rants on red states fudging death stats from a month ago I think it was in the 3s somewhere but I’m not sure. Regardless that moves my estimate up some.
1 Like
I’m not sure what you’re saying here. You received unemployment that you’ve stated on multiple occasions was more than your pay. This side effect was absolutely intended to make you stay home so we could do something about the curve.
I don’t know if you’d ever previously been on unemployment, but unemployment generally is a small portion of your income. If you lose a job in a recession, especially in a highly specialized field it is often close to impossible to find a job quickly. Many of those people were highly paid and receive something closer to 1/4 to 1/5 of their previous salary while on unemployment. It is enough to stop some bleeding for most people, but not generally enough for people to make it through long periods of time.
Again, if you’re paying people more than their salary its intent is to incentivize you to stay inside, because being outside or finding a new job will do nothing for the curve.
1 Like
I’m just eyeballed the block of daily cases from around a month ago on worldmeters for AZ/FL/TX. If you multiply that by 5% it lines up pretty well with eyeballing the deaths for around today.
FL cases a month ago - about 2.5k:
FL deaths now:
About 120
1 Like
You guys are kind of both right. Normal unemployment is what he is saying and unemployment + 600 is what you are saying. It’s also exactly why I think it is unlikely the Republicans agree to extend the $600.
It appears to me that it was just politicians clicking buttons.
I know people who had that unemployment benefit and spent their time living life like normal. There was no “here it is but stay home” message.
If the govt would of said we are giving every adult 3K a month but we have to shut down. We have to stay home. Go to the grocery store but wear a mask.
We will get through this together but we have to all be on the same team.
If the whole govt would of said and done this then they would of paid people to stay home.
Gotcha you very well may be right because you would need to take cases from a month ago divided by deaths now to get as close as you reasonably could to a true CFR. 5 does look pretty close to that.
So basically Dan’s numbers are a good estimate barring any funny business.
1 Like
Like I said, I think some states might be wildly different. I would break them into groups by positivity % and look at them separately. I looked at the states that are blowing up.
Also in my mind CFR in these states is just going to get worse as the youngs give it to more and more older/at-risk in successive generations. So back-testing a month is actually conservative. In NY/NJ it could be the opposite as people are still dying from the first wave.
NY Cases a month ago:
About 1k
NY deaths now:
Maybe 20
So for them the CFR is like 2%
2 Likes
4 Likes
Love that you guys did math and I pulled a number out my butt. That’s my little super power in life.
3 Likes