My lawn is the most fucking mowed it’s been in the 8 years I’ve lived in this house. NOrmally I have trouble meowing it and do a complete mow like once every 3 weeks when ti’s getting super overgrown. Now I’m mowing it like 3 times a week I am the fucking bane of long grass everywhere.
3 Likes
6 Likes
How you do the calculation is up to you, but I’m interested in seeing the R0 for these dates:
4/15-4/21, 4/22-4/28, 4/29-5/5, 5/6-5/12, 5/13-5/19, 5/20-5/26, 5/27-6/2, 6/3-6/9, 6/10-6/16, 6/17-6/23, and 6/24-6/30
No, actually, SDI is agnostic. There aren’t levels of SDI score just an SDI score. It’s important to remember the trends tend to show up after it falls below a point. It’s not that point + or - masks. It’s possible mask compliance creates its own lower or higher target SDI number, but that stuff doesn’t need to be factored into the SDI score, in my opinion.
The SDI is just an indicator at this point. To get it into the predictive phase, we need more data. We’re looking first at a trend based on movement (shut down/not shutdown). Once we find the baseline where cases are moving (fast/slow doesn’t matter), we start tracking it. If a place’s SDI is much lower and case movement is higher/faster, it probably gives us an indication of mask usage but doesn’t tend to tell us much other than a rise is coming.
The important thing to understand about the exercise is it wasn’t intended to be predictive at first. When I first set it up at the day level, I wanted to see if I could project surges starting (no intent to project drops). It wasn’t until I took it to the week level measurement period that it seemed pretty obvious the same sorts of things were happening nearly everywhere (aberrations appeared to be due to testing/case reporting weirdness).
The predictive aspect comes in when trying to determine how long shut downs should have happened and how aggressive they should have been. A state government would likely want to know what the lowest SDI is they need to retain success aka flattening (and then look into what kind of closures would create that SDI score through simulations). Then they’re going to want to know the lowest SDI based on allowing interstate travel. Interstate travel is probably blowing up the relevance of SDI right now, so this exercise may end up going back to being relevant only during the opening stages of the pandemic (for help in a future pandemic lol) and the several week period when places started reopening again.
I think it’s obvious something like 6 straight weeks 20+ above the current target SDI guess in any place would have bent to crushed the curve nearly everywhere at the start of the pandemic. The highest population density places need more than that (8 weeks maybe), but there’s not really any way of knowing since no place actually did that (Pennsylvania had the longest 20+ above the target SDI guess at 6 weeks).
It was hard enough getting most places to stay even 8 weeks 5+ above their target SDI guess (I think anything below 10 weeks 5+ above target SDI guess is predictive of how bad a place might get unless it’s sparse). The places that had 5+ above their target SDI guess for 10 weeks were NY, MA, D.C., VA, PA, MD, NJ, CO, NE, KS (barely), CT, DE, and NH. The only place that has a bent curve that didn’t reach 10 weeks was RI (8 with 2 weeks after that of 3 above target SDI guess). I don’t think any of these places stayed 5+ above target SDI guess more than 10 weeks minus possibly one exception that would have been 11 weeks (a number of places that hit 9 are being punished for not doing that extra week now).
My guess is whatever the number is to get it back in the bottle will be a doubling/tripling/quadrupling of necessary 20+ SDI target guess (or 5+ target SDI guess). In other words, we really are probably just going to have to learn to live with this until a vaccine, if I’m correct. 
1 Like
Pennsyltucky Covid TR
Mask compliance when in required places was 100%. Effectiveness another question. Noses, protected chins, etc. no different from home.
Hotel was recommended in common places. Most adults wore masks. Baseball teenagers did not. We took the stairs to avoid the elevator multiple times.
We did end up eating inside at a Panera. There was very low business on the 4th and we had a whole wing of seating to ourselves. I’d gotten a bit carsick in the mountains and needed the cool atmosphere. Wife was surprised I wanted to sit inside. County we were in has 2-3 cases/day and maybe 70 total in a 200k population.
If I die from the ‘rona just note that even 1 in 10,000 outers come in. Sigh, variance.
And since we need pics for a TR, here is the Pepperoni roll we had as an appetizer at a nice micro brew type place last night. Had we known we probably wouldn’t have ordered dinner. Lots of leftovers in the cooler.
6 Likes
-
- We are sitting out back enjoying edibles and bird watching. Our whole crew, about 12-16 people are enjoying a pool party but we are both very comfortable in our decision. Getting a bunch of bird feeders and paying more attention to nature has been a godsend through all of this.
2 Likes
Does anyone have any specific mask recommendations of ones they’ve ordered and been using that they like? Before this all started I had a couple boxes of the earloop surgical masks from my lab days; I’ve been wearing those and they work fine, I guess I’m looking for something sturdier, that I won’t feel like throwing out quickly. I have a couple homemade cloth masks but I’m not a fan because they have to be tied on, the earloop is way better. Doesn’t have to be N95 (although I’d buy those), but I’m looking for something that isn’t just a modified t-shirt. If there’s a thread for masks I’ve missed you can call me an idiot while you link it.
EDIT: I found the anarcho mask making thread but I’m talking about quality, pre-made ones that you probably have to order
1 Like
Might take about 3 weeks to receive.
2 Likes
Aren’t they still putting newly mutated virus material in each vaccine?
Thanks, that’s what I was thinking about. Hell, Stark’s Vacuums is a local place here, maybe I can get them at a store.
1 Like
protected chins — sums uAmuraiCa in 2 simple words
The pepperoni role -looks delicious but the first thing I thought of was that Suzzer guy is prolly comparing that to his cock .
8 Likes
I got a box of kn95 masks that I use for costco runs, haircut, etc. that were 20 for $40 and although I don’t think they’re much safer than regular disposable masks they’re much more comfortable and better made and I like having a well defined pocket in the front even though it looks like I’m wearing a paper beak. I also have 150~ cheap disposable ones but it turns out you don’t really need them when you rarely leave your house. I’m not really a fan of washable or reusable masks I’d rather have something I can get rid of and not worry about.
1 Like
I don’t believe so. But I’m not 100% sure.
I put cable locks on tie masks my daughter made. Works great. (Those little plastic balls with the springs insides on camping chair bags etc).
1 Like
I have mask from from this place and am happy with it. Face Covers & Filters – Outdoor Research
1 Like
I don’t know, they would have had to catch it and recovered by the end of April to be outside the two month window now, so really you’re talking about catching it by mid-April. That limits you to Seattle, NYC, and Boston for a big sample size if I recall correctly. Those places have mostly stayed locked down for most of this time, so the number of active cases right now out bouncing around to re-infect people would be low.
I think it’s too soon to say, so we should stay cautious on that in my opinion.
Oops, I was thinking one per minute in my head.
Yeah that’s in Winston, it’s not part of the Research Triangle. That’s UNC, Duke, NC State.
If Dan is going inside to eat at micro breweries and Paneras then we are screwed without government closing all indoor seating.
6 Likes
Outside at the microbrew. 
2 Likes
This is the point I’m making and it almost certainly does. Take two places with similar population density and weather, and make one maskless and one compliant, the compliant one can handle a lower SDI. No clue how much, but you could try to work it out.
As for all the length of shutdown stuff I still think you’re thinking about it wrong. It’s not just SDI and duration of shutdown, the number of cases per capita at the start of the shutdown is incredibly important. 8 weeks at infinite SDI doesn’t do much good if 30% of the population has active cases. 2 weeks at target SDI+1 might be enough if 1 in 1,000,000 people have it.
Those are extreme examples to make a point. You need a third variable.
I agree, at least in the South and Southwest. Don’t you worry, though. We’re raging here in Philly with the Fourth of July pool parties. We’re going to be in the shit like Andy Dufresne in a few weeks. (Unless outside is a silver bullet. Anyone know if there were a lot of cases from the maskless anti-mask protests and the Lake of the Ozarks? I’ve gotten mixed info when I’ve looked.)